China requires $5trn to reach 2060 carbon-neutrality pathway

Posted: October 13, 2020 by oldbrew in climate, Energy, net zero
Tags: , ,

Coal-hungry China [image credit: democraticunderground.com]


Doesn’t sound very likely, somehow. How much are 40-year policy announcements worth anyway? The report speaks of ‘the lack of scalable low-carbon alternatives’, and requires sales of EVs well over 300 million to help meet the so-called carbon neutrality target.
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China requires over $5 trillion of investments to reach its pathway for carbon-neutrality by 2060, according to a new study released by Wood Mackenzie, reports PEI.

China needs to expand its solar, wind and storage capacities by 11 times to 5,040GW by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, to be able to meet its 2060 goal.

Coal-fired power capacity will need to be halved while gas ends at the same level as in 2019. Total power output will need to expand by nearly 2.5 times to 18,835TWh by 2050 compared to current levels.

One challenge restricting China to reach its carbon-neutral goal is the lack of scalable low-carbon alternatives in the transport and industrial sectors.

Last year, China’s carbon emissions from these two sectors reached 5.7 billion tonnes, roughly as large as the total emissions in the US and the UK combined.

As a result, these sectors will require government subsidies and/or carbon pricing to decarbonise.

Under efforts to ensure the decarbonisation of the two sectors, China is expected to become a centre of energy innovation to decarbonise difficult sectors.

Wood Mackenzie states that China’s road transport must be fully electrified. Total new stock of electric vehicles will need to hit 325 million units by 2050, compared to 4 million units today.

Full report here.

Comments
  1. BoyfromTottenham says:

    Models, models, models, all the way down. The numbers that the Wood MacKensie report quotes are all based on various made-up ‘scenarios’ based on equally made-up assumptions, just like the IPCC reports. I would file it under ‘junk’. I wonder who paid for WM to write this stuff?

  2. It seems to me nuclear energy in the China energy mix is being ignored. When I was in China a few years ago I saw the Three Gorges Dam hydro plant of nominal 22,000MW capacity but in fact only produces on average about 8000MW over the year. I saw a number of coal fired power stations and one relatively large new power station which I recognised as a nuclear station (there were cooling towers, no coal or oil storage, no gas pipelines and in fact no significant roads to supply anything to the plant. No one wanted to talk about it. During my trip I did not see one solar panel any where even none on houses in the country. I did not see one wind turbine. It was said that no wind farm or solar farm is actually connected to the grid. There are about 12 new nuclear plants being under construction and to be completed within the next 4-5 years. That is the official figure I suggest the the real figure is at least 50% higher. I suggest further that by 2030 that China will be building only hydro and nuclear plants. Coal of course will still being used in all the power stations built in the last 10-15 years.

  3. oldbrew says:

    The figure has tripled already 😂

    Climate change: China’s goal to be carbon neutral by 2060 will cost US$15 trillion, report says
    https://www.scmp.com/print/news/china/diplomacy/article/3106509/climate-change-chinas-goal-be-carbon-neutral-2060-will-cost
    – – –
    By 2060 they’ll have had to replace most of the renewables stuff installed before 2040.

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