EU report about vanishing beaches was alarmist and wrong, scientists say 

Posted: October 28, 2020 by oldbrew in alarmism, Critique, modelling, sea levels
Tags: ,

Tropical beach

Another day, another false climate alarm bites the dust – or sand. It’s ‘flawed computer models’ time, again.
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Sandy beaches are much less vulnerable to rising seas than was claimed in a recent European Commission study which caused “unnecessary alarm”, research has found.

Beaches will survive by migrating landwards as the sea level rises as long as they are given space to move and not impeded by sea walls and other structures on the coast, the research shows.

The new findings contradict claims made in March in a study by the commission’s joint research centre, which supplies scientific evidence to guide EU policy, reports The Times (via The GWPF).

The study was publicised with a press release headlined “Climate Change: Life’s a (disappearing) beach”.

It claimed that half of the world’s beaches could disappear by the end of the century under current trends in climate change and sea levels rise.

The study also suggested that rising seas could wipe out almost 1,000 miles of sandy beaches in the UK by 2100.

But scientists from 12 universities around the world, including Ulster University and the University of Plymouth, re-examined the data and methodology that underpinned the study and found it was based on flawed computer models and an “arbitrary and unjustified” assumption about the fate of beaches as shorelines moved.

They have published a strongly worded rebuttal to the study in the same journal, Nature Climate Change, in which it appeared.

They say its conclusions are not just wrong but could result in “economically and environmentally disastrous” solutions being implemented.

Source here.

  1. Gamecock says:

    That the beach will move up or down with sea level is commonsensical.

    ‘The new findings contradict claims made in March in a study by the commission’s joint research centre, which supplies scientific evidence to guide EU policy’

    The research joint doesn’t know how beaches are formed.

  2. pameladragon says:

    Beach migration is a well-established fact. As long as there are no sea walls, jetties, or other impediments to migration, a given beach will respond to the natural forces at work and remain as long as the sediment supply is not compromised. The construction of jetties does impede the free long-shore movement of sediment, which then results in crescent-shaped beaches. Permanent construction on and shore ward of a beach is the only thing that will cause a beach to vanish.

  3. spetzer86 says:

    Oh, no! A report on Climate Change that’s “alarmist and wrong”?? How unusual.

  4. ivan says:

    When are these so called ‘climate scientists’ going to realise that until they can define everything accurately that makes up the climate they are only guessing based on what they think will happen. In this case I assume they were relying on the guess that the oceans are rising and used that in their model – and got it wrong again because they didn’t think to do a real world check of tide gauges.

    All it proves is that they live in/on a world divorced from reality.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Studies Claim Beaches Are Disappearing. Markets Think Studies Are Idiotic
    Date: 01/04/20 John Tamny, Real Clear Markets

    It would be great for the climate alarmists in our midst to answer why, if beaches are allegedly disappearing, beach houses are so expensive.
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    Yes, ask Al Gore at his mansion by the beach…

    Al Gore Buys $8.9 Million Ocean-view Villa
    May 13, 2010

    (LOS ANGELES, CA) — In a move that critics may cite as his own inconvenient truth, former Vice President Al Gore and his wife, Tipper, have added a house in secluded Montecito, Calif., to their real estate holdings.
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    Do as they say, not as they do 😆

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    the oceans have risen some 350+ feet since the end of the last ice age. If this idiot report/study had any validity there would be no beaches now.

    I am continually amazed at the blazing BS the so-called “science” community keeps spewing to keep the AGW wagon rolling along.

  7. oldbrew says:

    ‘Markets Think Studies Are Idiotic’

    Markets have boots on the ground, not computer models.

  8. Phoenix44 says:

    What, a model that used an assumption as the central driver of the model’s conclusion might have used an assumption that was guaranteed to produce that conclusion?

    Shocked I tell you, shocked.