Crystal ball time as the BBC and Met Office unveil their climate postcode lottery 

Posted: December 18, 2020 by oldbrew in climate, Forecasting, MET office, weather
Tags: ,


Brits can get their fix of climate doom here. All based on greenhouse gas theory, even though the greenhouse itself is mythical. What could possibly go wrong? Just ‘Enter your postcode above to reveal how hot it could get near you’, says the BBC. Will you be roasted, flooded or maybe both?
– – –
How high might temperatures climb where you live – and is it likely to rain more?

The BBC and the Met Office have looked at the UK’s changing climate in detail to find out.

The Met Office climate projections cover different levels of global warming.

When, or if, these levels are reached will depend on the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

The data is measured in 12km-square (7.5-mile-square) grids across the UK. The results for your postcode represent an average for the grids closest to you and the mid-point of a range of future possibilities.

How could the climate change near you?

Enter a full UK postcode to find out

Continued here.

Comments
  1. ivan says:

    Oh dear, the usual lot of twaddle pushed out by those that live in la-la land of computer models (I suppose the met office has to put their super computer to use to ‘prove’ they need a bigger and better one at tax payers expense).

    It would help if both the met office and BBC actually got some real scientists (the ones that live in the real world) to check their pronouncements before they made them, that way they would have much less scorn pointed in their direction when the ‘prophetic’ announcements fail again.

    It might also help if the met office could actually forecast the correct weather for the next week.

  2. Gamecock says:

    ‘The data is measured in 12km-square (7.5-mile-square) grids across the UK.’

    Data? Measured? Where can I buy me one of them there future thermometers?

    BWTM. When we get to 2050, will they report the future data (sic), or use then currently measured data?

    ‘The BBC and the Met Office have looked at the UK’s changing climate in detail to find out.’

    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

    Not any more, Yogi!

  3. oldbrew says:

    BBC : Warming temperatures could also mean cold spells become less frequent.

    Fascinating 🤣
    – – –
    Twelve different versions of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate model were used in calculating the UKCP Regional (12km) projections using a high emissions gas scenario (RCP8.5).

    But Pielke Jnr. and many others including warmists have rubbished the RCP 8.5 scenario, so that was a waste of time, effort and money. ‘Nature’ published this:

    COMMENT 29 JANUARY 2020
    Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading
    Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.
    Zeke Hausfather & Glen P. Peters

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3

    Even the BBC itself dismissed it…

    Climate change: Worst emissions scenario ‘exceedingly unlikely’
    By Matt McGrath
    Environment correspondent
    Published 29 January

    This is more about scientific assumptions added to a communications cock-up.

    Very few scientists realised that RCP8.5 was originally a 90th percentile outcome, not a most likely or business-as-usual outcome. They assumed too much, when they should perhaps have checked, say the authors of the review.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51281986
    – – –
    Now they’re trying to revive it?


    – – –
    But now we get: UKCP Regional (12km) projections using a high emissions gas scenario (RCP8.5)

    RCP 8.5 is junk, and they know it. Fools.

    They assumed too much, when they should perhaps have checked
    – BBC take note.

  4. Chaswarnertoo says:

    The BBC, where truth goes to die.
    The Met. Office, where Slingo made the lie…

  5. Graeme No.3 says:

    Articles collected from newspapers show that the BBC is not alone in not thinking before publication.

    Bridges help people cross rivers
    Starvation can lead to health hazards
    Statistics show that teen pregnancy drops significantly after age 25
    Study show frequent sex enhances pregnancy chances
    Parents keep children home to protest school closure

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    going through the entrails of sheep would be more accurate than these rent seeking clowns.

  7. Phoenix44 says:

    Has anybody ever predicted accurately what a complex non-linear system will be like 30 months out let alone 30 years out and in such detail? No. So why does anybody believe it can be done now?

    We are asked to trust utterly in forecasts that are extremely unlikely to have any skill. And not to do so is “anti-science”! Its so obviously stupid, why can’t everybody see it?

  8. Gamecock says:

    Government schools.

  9. oldbrew says:

    In 90 seconds – why models don’t work …

    = = =
    Scafetta Briefly Explains the Harmonic oscillation theory

    “The theory is very simple in words. The solar system is characterized by a set of specific gravitational oscillations due to the fact that the planets are moving around the sun. Everything in the solar system tends to synchronize to these frequencies beginning with the sun itself. The oscillating sun then causes equivalent cycles in the climate system. Also the moon acts on the climate system with its own harmonics. In conclusion we have a climate system that is mostly made of a set of complex cycles that mirror astronomical cycles. Consequently it is possible to use these harmonics to both approximately hindcast and forecast the harmonic component of the climate, at least on a global scale. This theory is supported by strong empirical evidences using the available solar and climatic data.”

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/02/17/scafetta-vs-ipcc-dueling-climate-theories/

  10. stpaulchuck says:

    Phoenix44 says:
    December 19, 2020 at 9:43 am

    even the vaunted IPCC has said (quietly) that NO ONE can do that, yet here we go again as the charlatans keep showing up with the latest and greatest snake oil.
    ———-
    “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” – IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    As usual stpaulchuck is on the money.

    Collective actions of governments and employers — notably so-called “corporate partners” and especially big tech monopolies — are savagely driving unsustainable numbers to $0 while “rewarding” others with positive feedback to runaway wealth.

    If I were a dictator I would put sensible limits on this poorly-designed process now, knowing IT’s dangerous potential to stir waves of revolution and counter-revolution for decades of western instability. IT exploits “divide and conquer”, leaving vulnerability to centuries-long suppression.

    The first thing I would do is break each of the big techs into 5 pieces because they are corrupting the market into a mark IT (ware IT = inverted totalitarianism). I wouldn’t wait. I would act right now.

    The right leadership would not have “left with reason” to permanently suppress western freedom. We don’t have the right leadership.

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    BBC[11]i.e.MET red nos. rude off $0[]well reign D-air

    Baby See 2020 UN VEI “go a11 Don!” Post D-Codes caught “Or.”ery

    Christmas Bollinger times 11. Peer sent mad MET forecast error we11-red-D-C-ed (mad = mean absolute deviation).

  13. oldbrew says:

    Tuesday, 22 December 2020
    The Great Green Leap – – – Backwards
    Letter-to-the-Editor/Opinion Piece

    Australian Climate Sceptics Blog

    by Viv Forbes

    We cannot afford to fight the Covid Virus and the Green Virus at the same time.

    Without more reliable energy like nuclear power or massive hydro-electric schemes, this Green War on hydro-carbons must bring shortages and rationing. Still nights followed by windless cloudy days will see whole cities or states blacked out, electric vehicles stranded, old people shivering and panic buying in super-markets.

    The 2016 Paris Climate Agreement was history’s longest suicide note.

    http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-great-green-leap-backwards.html

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Homer shh! IT in Phi 11adda11 Phi Yule

    The news from Australia is extraordinarily disheartening. Orwell has them in the death grip.

    Their freedom has been crushed by the hammer of “lose$suffer!” monstrously power-tripping a weak, timid, and easily-frightened populace (useless as allies) into absolute surrender and submission.

    Let us harden our resolve to reverse the financial and psychological terrorism.

    They have persistently and relentlessly pushed viciously savage harassment past all limits despite patiently repeated warnings from good people to be more ethical.

    A defense alliance with a populace so readily willing to surrender to evil authority in 1984 is an unaffordable liability.

    Let us pray for the wisdom to realize we cannot reason our way out of the devil’s death grip.

    Wealthy conservatives: The right can NOT lead to freedom without showing extreme generosity at this time. The devil knows how to exploit that predictable reluctance and thus can easily lock the west at this ripe moment into suppression for centuries or longer.

    Populists will never forgive you if you instead decide (like Boris) to turn on “allies” with throat-sheering teeth as we measure weather your D-vote shh! UN is to God and natural goodness or the D-evill WHO’s at UN. If you can’t respect populist culture and you show an instinct to hammer with “loose$suffer!” and crush God’s love and holy spirit, we know $0[]well you’re reprehensibly WHO’s at UN.

    We’re going to learn if wealthy conservatives have the moral fiber it takes to change course in a moment of truth to be good and ethical.

    I put the odds at 60/40 in favor of the D-evill you know $0[]well WHO’s at UN. My instinct is wealthy conservatives will side with them and (with lips $0[]well sealed) cause monstrous homelessness and poverty on a terrifying scale.

    To inspire secure salvation of precious freedom from crusty satanic “logic”, a good populist nos. God’s guidance away from WHO’s at UN move a bull wealthy “rights”.

    Australia’s new hammer is simply lost.

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