Planet Earth has remained habitable for billions of years ‘because of good luck’, say researchers

Posted: January 3, 2021 by oldbrew in atmosphere, research, Temperature
Tags: , , ,

Credit: earth.com


Greetings Earthlings, or should we say ‘habitable-zone-dwelling asteroid dodgers’? We even have the right amount of atmosphere — not too little (like Mars) or too much (like Venus), and the essential oxygen.
– – –
Pure chance is the reason that Planet Earth has stayed habitable for billions of years.

A new study has found that it’s nothing more than good luck that has kept our world full of life, reports I-news.

Scientists at the University of Southampton have carried out a mass simulation of climate evolution of 100,000 randomly generated planets.

Each planet was simulated 100 times with random climate-altering events occurring each time in order to see if habitable life could be sustained for three billion years like on Earth.

Of these planets, 9 per cent (8,700) were successful at least once but, of those, nearly all (about 8,000) were successful fewer than 50 times out of 100 and most (about 4,500) were successful fewer than 10 times out of 100.

‘Puzzling’

Professor Toby Tyrrell, a specialist in Earth system science, said the results of the study, published in the Nature journal Communications Earth and Environment, suggested chance is a major factor in determining whether planets, such as Earth, can continue to nurture life over billions of years.

He said: “A continuously stable and habitable climate on Earth is quite puzzling. Our neighbours, Mars and Venus, do not have habitable temperatures, even though Mars once did.

“Earth not only has a habitable temperature today, but has kept this at all times across three to four billion years – an extraordinary span of geological time.”

Full report here.

Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    They haven’t read the Gaia hypothesis, obviously.

  2. Chaswarnertoo says:

    BS. Negative feedbacks that they don’t want to admit to, or understand.

  3. Gamecock says:

    ‘Each planet was simulated 100 times with random climate-altering events occurring each time in order to see if habitable life could be sustained for three billion years like on Earth.’

    I can write that program in 7 lines.

    Note that regardless of any survival algorithms they pulled from their heinies, Earth has indeed evolved life and has indeed survived. Whether the odds are a hundred to one, or a trillion to one, doesn’t matter.

  4. Gamecock says:

    ‘100,000 randomly generated planets’

    Did they generate any with an iron/nickel core? Randomly?

  5. wilpretty says:

    Life will adapt to survive, whatever the change.

  6. JB says:

    Indeedy. Forbid that they acknowledge from the micro to the macro the exceptional order in the midst of apparent chaos. By what agent does order appear in chaos? Not chance. Every “successful” gambler knows the odds.Yewt they keep finding with their peepscopes and whistleboxes everywhere they look, there is no solar system even close to ours.

    Countless times, I’ve heard scientists and researchers observe that the complexity in the order inherent in Life portends intelligent design, engineering competence far in excess of anything we know. Forbid that we accept the possibility there is at least one Wizard behind the Curtain, monitoring the overall situation.

    What are the chances of an “errant comet” entering the solar system 12K years ago, and taking out one planet that should be there, resulting in a leveling out of climatic conditions on earth at a temperature range conducive to life multiplying unprecedentedly? The ancient stories seem to convey the Event, but Western Man refuses to accept what exists in the old tribal traditions. Hearsay. Superstition. Allegories. Who can believe the tales of the Sumerians or the Lakota, or Ojibwa?

  7. oldbrew says:

    tallbloke says: January 3, 2021 at 2:06 pm
    They haven’t read the Gaia hypothesis, obviously.
    – – –
    But they have – and written a book about it too…

    Professor Toby Tyrrell, a specialist in Earth system science (quoted in the blog post)

    On Gaia: A Critical Investigation of the Relationship between Life and Earth by Toby Tyrrell

    Tyrrell weaves these and many other intriguing observations into a comprehensive analysis of the major assertions and lines of argument underpinning Gaia, and finds that it is not a credible picture of how life and Earth interact. On Gaia reflects on the scientific evidence indicating that life and environment mutually affect each other, and proposes that feedbacks on Earth do not provide robust protection against the environment becoming uninhabitable–or against poor stewardship by us.

    https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/books/toby-tyrrell/on-gaia/9780691121581

  8. ivan says:

    Ah, the wackademics are setting the stage for the big push by the UN and its Church of Climatology for the big reset in which the population is culled and those remaining become the slaves of the Climatological Elite – all in the name of keeping the planet habitable.

    That way the planet will continue on under the stewardship of those elite, at least, that is how they see it but they are so ignorant they don’t realise they haven’t a clue about how the world works.

  9. tallbloke says:

    “Intellectuals are naturally attracted by the idea of a planned society, in the belief that they will be in charge of it.”

    – Roger Scruton

  10. oldbrew says:

    Solar cycle 24 had the lowest (49) ‘average spots per day’ in this list, starting from SC 10 in 1855.
    SC 25 has already had nearly as many (221) spotless days as SC 22 (257), which perhaps raises questions about its cited end date of Dec. 2019.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

    Followed by SC 14 with 54. Cycles 17-23 averaged over 100 spots per day.

    See also: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/20/sunspots-set-a-space-age-record/

  11. Phoenix44 says:

    Far too many scientists don’t understand what they are doing with such nonsense. Its trivially obvious that only on a planet that has produced intelligent life can such questions be asked. The fact it’s “us” is not a determinant of whether it’s rare or unlikely – somebody will win the Lottery, who it is is not determined by who they are. A billion galaxies each with a trillion stars is a lot of Lottery tickets.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Habitable zones are not necessarily on the planetary surface either.

  13. Gamecock says:

    Nor would life necessarily be like us. Something as simple as a difference in gravity would significantly change the general shape of organisms.

    Even on earth, something as simple as cuttlefish living longer could make a huge difference. These mollusks display remarkable intelligence, but only live 2 years. What if they lived 50? Could they create an embedded base of knowledge which subsequent generations could add to?

  14. tom0mason says:

    More stupidity from academics who are educated well beyond their ability to truly understand this planet and it’s surroundings, playing computer simulation games, and doing nothing to advance the knowledge of mankind. They appear to believe that they know what it takes to make life. If this is true then they can take basic elemental chemicals and create some life, they can identify the parameters that make this life persist and evolve?

    I note that they have not taken into consideration Earth’s over-large moon and it’s many effects.

    Either way this report and the work behind it was just wasted more money.

    And here is the video blah-blah that goes with this nonsense report …

  15. bonbon says:

    Einstein alone objected to Bohr’s “chance” at Solvay in 1927.
    Economics today is supposed to emerge spontaneously, by chance, in an unknowable way – von Hayek of the London School of Economics.
    For such statistics ideologues, major financial crashes are “puzzling”, for us disastrous.

    If these “puzzled” were actually allowed to design a solar system, we, nor them, would exist!

  16. bonbon says:


    If these “puzzled” were actually allowed to design a solar system, NEITHER we, nor them, would exist!

  17. oldbrew says:

    Still trying to figure out why Arctic sea ice ignores the predictions of climate models…

    JANUARY 4, 2021
    Scientists find the error source of a sea-ice model varies with the season

    “We evaluated the model’s performance in the Arctic cold season (March) and warm season (September), and found the model performances are different in the two months,” says Zheng. “Due to the uncertainty of the model, the model’s insufficient response to the signal of atmospheric forcings, and the insufficient response to the ocean boundary signal, there were disagreements between the simulations and observations in both March and September.”

    https://phys.org/news/2021-01-scientists-error-source-sea-ice-varies.html
    – – –
    Removing imaginary atmospheric ‘forcings’ might be a good start.

  18. stpaulchuck says:

    oldbrew says:
    January 5, 2021 at 3:21 pm

    Removing imaginary atmospheric ‘forcings’ might be a good start.
    ———————————-

    right on oldbrew. Along with stopping the data torturing with “adjustments” to the raw temps and a host of other ‘thumb on the scale’ cheats.

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