Summer temperatures could rise faster in the UK than average global rates, researchers suggest

Posted: January 5, 2021 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Natural Variation, predictions, research, Temperature
Tags: ,


Bring it on. Average August temperature in London is 22C, and much of the UK is at cooler higher latitudes than London is. A long way to go to even get close to Mediterranean-style summers, and some ‘heat deaths’ could well be due to lack of air conditioning as much as the weather itself. Deaths from cold weather are more the issue in the UK. Researchers today like to assume that temperature trends go on forever in one direction, but forget the ‘experts’ were forecasting drastic global cooling back in the 1970s, after 30 years of lack of warming. A 40 year study period is short for claiming trends, hence words like ‘could’ and ‘projected’ to hedge their bets.
– – –
The U.K. could be facing a future of extreme heatwaves according to a new study in which scientists mapped almost 40 years’ worth of trends to project what lies ahead, says Phys.org.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, draws on datasets from the Met Office’s U.K. Climate Projections, specifically UKCP18, which contains global climate model projections and simulations from around the world, as well as high resolution climate model projections on a local and regional scale for the U.K. and Europe.

Between 2016 and 2019 there were more than 3,400 excess deaths in England as a result of heatwaves.

Researchers from the University of Bristol say that the projected future increase in temperature extremes as suggested by the trends mapped with the help of UKCP18 represents a future risk to well-being in the UK.

Important aspects of heat extremes were investigated in the UKCP18 data, including the duration, intensity and spatial extent of heatwave events and different measures of heat stress that account for humidity—a factor which adds to discomfort on hot days.

By comparing the modeled heat extremes to observational datasets, the researchers are able to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the UKCP18 simulations.

The study, conducted in collaboration with the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, concludes that U.K. summer temperatures, and extreme hot days in particular, are projected to warm up to 50 percent faster than the average rate of global warming.

The research team are now exploring how to work with regional policymakers to understand the implications at localized socio-economic levels.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Phoenix44 says:

    Then some places must be having lower temperature rises then. Where are those?

    But the study is just pathetic. We looked at a model and the scariest thing we could produce was this. It’s not science, it’s not even modelling, just intellectual masterbation.

  2. billbedford says:

    But, but, but. It’s minimum temperatures that are rising, maximum temperatures are more or less steady.

  3. tom0mason says:

    Back in 2010 the Mail Online highlighted ‘National Trust campaign highlights how gardens will look if global warming brings Mediterranean weather to Britain’ (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1260213/National-Trust-campaign-highlights-gardens-look-global-warming-brings-Mediterranean-weather-Britain.html ) It said summer temperatures will be “2C rise – which some climate scientists say is inevitable by the end of the century – would see the South East of England experiencing conditions similar to south west France, while a 4C rise would expose gardens to conditions seen in south-west Portugal, the Trust said.”
    Mike Calnan, the National Trust’s head of gardens and parks, said ‘The Met Office are saying that despite the recent concerns about the science, they are very sure about the underlying science.’ … ‘They tell us there is a 50-50 chance we will get a 2C rise. If we pull our finger out we could prevent us moving beyond 2C but we have to act pretty soon”.
    A 2C rise could mean summers in the UK reaching 38C – a climate similar to southern France.

    That hasn’t worked out too well so far but I hope for a warmer UK climate.

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    Many years ago I was highly amused by an article about someone in Yorkshire growing Morning Glory (Ipomoea cairica) with a photo of an urn containing a plant about 12″ high. It was obviously placed in a heated greenhouse during winter. My delight was having just seen miles of this plant just north of Sydney along a raitrack in a gully. Everywhere in the gully, trees and all to about 10 ft. (3-4 metres), was covered by this vine. Its local name was (and is) Mile-a-Minute.
    “Morning glory is a significant environmental weed in Queensland, New South Wales and on Norfolk Island. This species is capable of very rapid growth and can completely smother trees and under-storey plants, but it will creep along the ground in the absence of supporting vegetation. Significant infestations may lead to a reduction in biodiversity through the replacement of native vegetation and the displacement of certain native animals”.

    So watch out! Global warming might have unexpected consequences. Speaking of global warming I was driving 2 days ago through Hahndorf in the Adelaide Hills and noticed that some trees had already got ‘autumn leaves’. This is supposedly our summer and this change has happened (in recent years) at the end of February/ early March. I notice that there have been recent snowfalls in southern NZ and Tasmania, also in the highlands of Victoria.

  5. TomO says:

    The research team are now exploring how to work with regional policymakers to understand the implications at localized socio-economic levels.

    – gosh, that’s a lot of words for “finagle further funding”

  6. JB says:

    The left hand never knoweth what the right doeth. Forget the models.
    All one need do is compare the sunspot cycles and barycenter phasing with known weather history and you get a fairly good indication of what happens.
    ‘https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1610/1610.03553.pdf’

  7. pochas94 says:

    The above Pease and Glenn paper is at
    ‘https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1610/1610.03553.pdf’

  8. oldbrew says:

    I would query the first sentence of the Pease & Glenn paper:

    In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.37 years have a matching periodicity of ~179 years.

    The ~22.37 years is a different number, according to Ian Wilson’s PRP paper:

    (NB: since the VEJ tidal-torquing model has a natural aliasing set by the physical alignments of Venus and the Earth, simple auto-regression analysis of the smoothed torque curve in Fig. 5 indicates that the (short-term) repetition cycle is 22.38 yr (= 7 VE alignments) rather than 22.14 yr. Essentially, what this means is that while the tangential torques affecting the convective layers of the Sun are being applied over a 22.14 yr repetition cycle, any external mechanism that uses the VE alignments to interact with the tidal-torquing mechanism, will attempt to do so over periodic cycles that are 22.38 yr long).

    Click to access prp-1-147-2013.pdf

    The mean Hale cycle should be close to 22.14 years.

    NB 22.38y is 14 VE alignments not 7, as stated in the paper’s conclusions:
    The model produces periodic changes in rotation rate of
    the convective layers of the Sun that result in a 22.14 yr
    (Hale-like) modulation of the solar activity cycle (≈ 14
    Venus–Earth alignments lasting 22.38 yr).

    – – –
    Prediction success: in the 2016 paper G&P said:
    Figure 4 also shows our projection of an SC24 sunspot minimum in late 2019

    The official date was declared as December 2019.

  9. oldbrew says:

    How accurate are our weather and climate measurements?
    By Dr. Jay Lehr, Terigi Ciccone |January 5th, 2021|Climate, Science

    When looking at long term climate data, we may have to use multiple proxies (indirect measures that we hope vary directly with weather), which add an extra layer of complexities, costs, and sources of error.

    https://www.cfact.org/2021/01/05/how-accurate-are-our-weather-and-climate-measurements/
    – – –
    Or, how inaccurate?

  10. oldbrew says:

    2020 global temperature equals that of 2016
    Posted on January 6, 2021 by Clive Best

    The global temperature [anomaly] for 2020 was 0.88C equaling that in 2016 based on GHCN-V4C (homogenised) and HadSST3. The V4U (uncorrected) result is 0.82C for 2020 making it slightly cooler than 2016.
    . . .
    December saw a large drop in global temperatures relative to November mainly due to a strong La Nina developing in the South Pacific.

    http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=9843
    – – –
    La Nina here we come.

  11. pochas94 says:

    There is confusion about the length of the Jose cycle. I believe we should settle on 179 years.

  12. oldbrew says:

    pochas – yes, that’s what he intended.

  13. pochas94 says:

    And that closely approximates the DeVries cycle, given as 206 years +-.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Yes, de Vries:Jose is a 6:7 ratio (of J-S trigons). The de Vries cycle is in effect a half-cycle as Jupiter, Saturn and Earth synchronise every 2 de Vries.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/why-phi-jupiter-saturn-and-the-de-vries-cycle/

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