Climate stats show no significant warming trend in the last 5 years, says The GWPF

Posted: January 15, 2021 by oldbrew in climate, ENSO, opinion, Temperature
Tags:


But every squillionth of a degree counts for those trying to promote a human-caused climate crisis that never lives up to the hype of the computer models. In contrast with dire predictions, the change since the 1998 El Niño is nothing to write home about.
– – –
There has been no significant warming trend for 5 years, reports The Global Warming Policy Forum.

Every year in the middle of January various organisations, The UK Met Office, NASA, NOAA, etc. release their estimates of the annual average global temperature of our planet.

This year the conclusion is that 2020 is statistically identical to 2016. Some have placed it the second whereas the Japanese Meteorological Agency has it as the third warmest of the modern era.

The overall conclusion to be drawn however is the misunderstanding of statistics used to support a predetermined opinion.

To illustrate the point let’s just look at NOAA’s data. This has a temperature anomaly for 2020 of 0.98 +/- 0.15 °C compared to 1.00 +/- 0.15 °C for 2016 (which was the year with the strongest recorded El Nino).

The difference is trivial, especially since the precision of the mean is reported to thousandths of a degree.

Looking at NOAA’s data for previous years you can see that every year since 2015 falls within one standard deviation of the mean.

Such a simple and unbiased view of the data leads to a much more justifiable headline for the data: There has been no significant warming trend for 5 years, as NOAA has confirmed.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    It’s nearly time to give the MET office their annual teasing…

  2. ivan says:

    I would question how they can get an accuracy of a tenth of a degree considering the variability of local temperatures, I can walk about 300 metres down the road and the temperature will drop just shy of one degree C. If they are trying to get an average of global temperatures they need thermometers on something like a 100 metre grid over the land surface and maybe a slightly larger grid over the oceans – anything else is just computer modelling which we all know follows the GIGO computer principle and is very susceptible to operator bias which makes anything produced useless but does stroke the ego of certain ‘scientists’.

  3. tom0mason says:

    “Climate stats show no significant warming trend”

    The UN defined period of ‘climate’ being 30 years is the major hobgoblin. A more realistic 60 to 100 year running mean basis would (IMHO) be more sensible and reduce all these noisy weather effects. Judged over such a climate period the ‘warming’ is very small to inconsequential.

    Year to year variations are just weather, and saying that averaged global temperatures can be measured to 1 or even 2 decimal places is just an absurdity as ivan points out above.

  4. oldbrew says:

    a simple and unbiased view of the data

    Those were the days 😐

  5. Francis says:

    It’s not just the last 5 years. Dr. Murray Salby and others have shown that, except for half a dozen years associated with El Nino, there has been no significant warming trend for the last century.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/20/does-the-climate-science-industry-purposely-ignore-a-simple-aspect-of-strong-el-nino-events-that-causes-long-term-global-warming/

  6. stpaulchuck says:

    clots on other blogs keep insisting that 2020 was the warmest on record. Yeah. Sure.

  7. tom0mason says:

    An interesting FREE publication ‘ The Rational Climate ebook’ that appears to hold on to its scientific sanity better than most in the climate debate —
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347150306_The_Rational_Climate_e-Book

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s