Solar Cycle 25 update: Sun takes a post-minimum nap.

Posted: January 18, 2021 by tallbloke in Agriculture, Analysis, Astrophysics, climate, Cycles, government, modelling, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics
Data courtesy of Solen.info

Back in November it looked like solar cycle 25 was finally getting underway, with daily sunspot numbers peaking up to 80, and the 30 day Wolf number climbing over 30 in early December. Since then though, the Sun has relapsed into a low activity state.

This won’t come as any surprise to Talkshop followers, we’ve been saying that cycle 25 would be very low for most of the last decade. Our group research culminated in late 2013 with publication of Rick Salvador’s orbital resonance model in the journal ‘Pattern Recognition in Physics’. We provided an update on the validation of the model a while back, showing it has remained on track since publication.

There is, as usual, a broad range of predictions for the solar cycle from various groups and individual researchers, which we summarised in a post in December 2019. Which one of these is closest to reality will be revealed as the solar cycle progresses.

It’s something policy makers should be interested in, as there are potentially serious implications, especially for energy and agricultural production. If the cycle is as low as our model predicts, we can expect to see a general cooling and shortening of the growing season, as well as unseasonal crop-damaging hailstorms. ‘Just in time’ food supply might benefit hedgefunders and speculators, but its no way to run a railroad.

Given the success of Rick’s model in hindcasting the last 4000 years of proxy-reconstructed solar activity, it’s our opinion that the possibility of a deep solar grand minimum should be taken seriously.

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    *Sunspots per day* averages are on an obvious downward trend in the last two solar cycles, compared to the averages of previous cycles from 1933-2008.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

  2. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Brrr….

  3. ivan says:

    You just have to look at the thermometer to see the downward temperature – and they talk about ‘global warming’ we could do with some of that warming now (3.9 C at the moment and looking to get colder later tonight).

  4. tallbloke says:

  5. oldbrew says:

    World leaders!! Change the climate quick – or else 🤣
    – – –
    GEOMAGNETIC UNREST EXPECTED: For the next three days, Earth’s polar magnetic field may be unsettled. The reason: A solar wind stream is approaching Earth, due to arrive on Jan. 18th. Solar wind speeds could top 500 km/s–not fast enough to cause a full-fledged geomagnetic storm, but possibly enough for some beautiful Arctic auroras.

    https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=18&month=01&year=2021

    At about the same time…

    Met Office, Mon 18 Jan 2021:
    Storm Christoph will bring multiple hazards to the UK this week, initially heavy rain.

    Persistent heavy rain will lead to significant accumulations of rain which could lead to flooding in some areas. An Amber National Severe Weather Warning for rain has been issued for parts of northern, central and eastern England.
    . . .
    The Amber warning area includes Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield, Wakefield, Lincoln, Nottingham, Leicester and Peterborough and is valid from 0600 on Tuesday through to midday on Thursday. Within the Amber warning area rainfall accumulations could reach up to 200mm in parts of the southern Pennines and northern Peak District, 40-70mm could be seen more widely.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/storm-christoph-has-been-named

    Some areas could get a January month’s rainfall in 2 days…

  6. jeremyp99 says:

    tallbloke says:
    January 18, 2021 at 2:11 pm
    I wonder if Scott is getting nervous yet. 🙂
    ==============================================

    NASA predicted that Cycle 24 would be very busy….

  7. oldbrew says:

    ‘Storm Christoph has been named’ — well spotted 👍

  8. oldbrew says:

    Planet overheating?

    China’s Bohai Bay energy terminals on alert as sea ice slows ships

    BEIJING/SINGAPORE, Jan 12 (Reuters) – Chinese ports and marine safety authorities are on high alert as an expansion of sea ice makes it tougher for ships to berth and discharge at key energy product import terminals along the coast of northern Bohai Bay.

    A cold wave sweeping the northern hemisphere has plunged temperatures across China to their lowest in decades, boosting demand for power and fuel to historic highs in the world’s largest energy consumer.

    “The sea ice situation is more severe this year than the same period in previous years,” said Wang Jun, a professor specialising in transport issues at Dalian Maritime University.

    “It could impede sailing and docking for vessels, no matter how big they are.” [bold added]

    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-weather-shipping/chinas-bohai-bay-energy-terminals-on-alert-as-sea-ice-slows-ships-idUSL4N2JN0YE

  9. P.A.Semi says:

    This SC25 is being used by God to send us a Judgement Day message.
    (When the cycle will be in full force, it would be hard to use it the way it has been used for last 8 years, ongoing since 2012…)

    Click to access SC25.pdf


    There beside short intro with solar physics and “prediction” of Solar Cycle for next 200 years, as it is well matched for past 400 years, which is a kind of “Scientific Heresy”, follows the text of Revelation and a long list of Judgement Day…
    (Next update of this work is pending, maybe tomorrow, not sure yet…)

    Recently in late 2020 there has been multiple readable inscriptions, either in Solar magnetic field, or in Solar Coronal holes, like on the morning after US election fraud on 2020-11-04 there has been a map of America, with inscription FvRAUD from Alaska to Greenland, and most of the fraudulent states marked with darker spots, and on the day of Electoral College 2020-12-14 there has been even thrice written FRAUD in different ways. There have been inscriptions “Trump Sue Zіоn” twice, and the word “rise” in Pentagon… And multiple others…
    (Most recently there has been a small map of both Americas in magnetic field, with dot somewhere between West Virginia and Illinois, and beside it in both magnetic polarities possibly written “Trust Military”… Maybe the Communists will be swept away tomorrow Jan 20, but that should had happened already in December… But still better late than never…)

    http://pialpha.cz/Trump_2020

    So the present “nap” in Solar activity may well be intentional, as was the Maunder Minimum after the wrong religious Thirty Years War, which I think were connected…

    πα½

  10. Michele Casati says:

    Zonal magnetic flux transport over nearly 4 solar cycles

    Last update CR2239 – 2020:12

    Total flux is still off

  11. oldbrew says:

    Back in November it looked like solar cycle 25 was finally getting underway, with daily sunspot numbers peaking up to 80, and the 30 day Wolf number climbing over 30 in early December. Since then though, the Sun has relapsed into a low activity state.

    The ~20-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction occurred in November, i.e. the two biggest planets in line with the sun. Was that ‘peak’ the sun’s reaction?

    C-class solar flare yesterday (19 Jan.), only one in the last month. Zero sunspots from 3-14 Jan.
    https://solen.info/solar/indices.html

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