What if … A Perfect CME Hit Earth?

Posted: January 22, 2021 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics

Are you sitting comfortably? Well, you might not be after reading this…


Jan. 21, 2021: You’ve heard of a “perfect storm.” But what about a perfect solar storm? A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather considers what might happen if a worst-case coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth. Spoiler alert: You might need a backup generator.

For years, researchers have been wondering, what’s the worst the sun could do? In 2014, Bruce Tsurutani (JPL) and Gurbax Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism) introduced the “Perfect CME.” It would be fast, leaving the sun around 3,000 km/s, and aimed directly at Earth. Moreover, it would follow another CME, which would clear the path in front of it, allowing the storm cloud to hit Earth with maximum force.

None of this is fantasy. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed CMEs leaving the sun at speeds up to 3,000 km/s. And there are many documented cases of…

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  1. Dave Ward says:

    “You might need a backup generator”

    But don’t forget that EVERYTHING we rely on is powered by electricity, one way or another. So add at least a years supply of fuel, fresh water & food. And for good measure, some guns and lots of ammo to fend off all the desperate folks trying to get to your supplies…

    Think those “Preppers” are crazy? – maybe they’re not so daft after all…

  2. oldbrew says:

    EVs wouldn’t be going very far, or at all once the charge expired.

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    United by the $0 Lure Win D-in the “True” Picks

    You won’t see the true contribution of CO2 so precisely nailed any other way…

    Left this review right hear:

    208.886643858909 = beat(178.266850068779,1216.12719789676)
    208.886643858908 = beat(131.716392653884,356.533700137559)
    208.886643858909 = beat(104.443321929454,208.886643858908)
    208.886643858908 = beat(96.1829470900285,178.266850068779)
    208.886643858908 = beat(65.8581963269421,96.1829470900285) — ERSSTv3b2 EOF PCs
    208.886643858908 = beat(50.0715412599931,65.8581963269421)
    208.886643858908 = axial(356.533700137559,504.413226524325)
    208.886643858908 = harmean(131.716392653884,504.413226524325)

    These cycles are not sine waves. IT’s not linear.

    Water is being thrown around on the surface — spatiotemporal and material — material phase changes, to be neither confused nor conflated with cycle phase — another kind of phase, where language threatens misunderstanding, misinterpretation, and misrepresentation (at VERY high frequency in USA).

    Let’s also review how volcanism bundles in HMF, since water is thus thrown about, changing the pattern on Earth’s surface — same instrument, different chord played:

    lunar draconic:
    0.0745030006844627 = 27.212221 / 365.25

    beat with sidereal & tropical JEV & golden angle J+S (stablest antiresonance) :
    0.0740048189707489 = beat(11.0674095950432,0.0745030006844627)
    0.0740049175936799 = beat(11.0696157491919,0.0745030006844627)
    0.0740046037831518 = beat(11.062598968428,0.0745030006844627)
    0.0740049007315693 = beat(11.0692384888412,0.0745030006844627)

    (Your favorite orrery might not share the tropical perspective.)

    in days — compare with a classic written by another Vaughan:
    27.030260129066 = 365.25 * 0.0740048189707489
    27.0302961510916 = 365.25 * 0.0740049175936799
    27.0301815317962 = 365.25 * 0.0740046037831518
    27.0302899922057 = 365.25 * 0.0740049007315693

    Hear weather less sun or less UN IT’s AB out Goo lag rig “hey shhh!” UN CR IT eerie “ya!!!” with no. ENSO keys tune “27.03 days”.

    I don’t care weather Biden or Trump or Keystone XL or not or Paris Accord or not.
    I care only that truth is allowed spoken. Orwell 1984 psy-ops makes the populace (including “the dreaded populists”) go crazy, so if EU must have Eur. Paris Accord, D-side too have IT (where IT = inverted totalitarianism) WITH TRUTH.

    Earth surface water’s pretty obviously a movable mass counterbalancing Earth-Moon in the surf ace wind. Those people who think they can have climate without fathoming the distribution and phase of water over the surf ace are not the people worthy of the folk US of our top long-run negotiating skills.

    Let US peacefully find those who fathom the security risks of piece fully ignoring (list UN op US mull at orrery) surface water counterbalance. Let IT be Earth’s meet UN of the most sense able secure IT minds.

    Now: I need several hundred million dollars. I will build a “climate puzzle sol vert” like the green world has never seen. This will be an automated tool, capable of solving for the climate over the surface of any body (excluding internally chaotic government bodies) in any system. I kid you not.

  4. JB says:

    Sounds like the necessary “Perfect Economic Reset” to me.
    Would stop dead in their tracks the lunacy of these WEF/NWO nuts.
    Everybody goes back to barter and non-corporate business.

  5. Gamecock says:

    Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sure, it’s possible. But the advantage of sitting in this solar system, this galaxy, for 4,500,000,000 years is that most of the bad stuff has already happened. I.e., the odds are 1. too minuscule to worry about, and 2. if the earth is destroyed, it’s game over. Doesn’t matter how many MREs you’ve hoarded.

    As time goes by, the threat diminishes. It has been diminishing for 4,500,000,000 years.

  6. Paul Vaughan says:

    Hybridization: Academic Populism is “bi-collar” (read: white and blue).

    “experts” note well:
    Trying to “correct” those who are right isn’t how you support unity. Pay attention and at last get to understand something diagnostically quite important but widely ignored:

    Review from tropical (Seidelmann 1992), half-tropical, draconic, QBO:
    2.36966696466561 = slip(0.99997862,0.0745030006844627)
    9.09435002845515 = slip(2.36966696466561,0.49998931)
    96.1912425566793 = slip(9.09435002845515,0.99997862)

    This is a pole-pole contrast that really screws up pretty much everyone’s perception of ~66 year multidecadal — 2 different EOFs with 2 different PCs — diagnostically crucial and widely overlooked.

    You can see it in time-height sections — you can look at annual, semi-annual, & QBO lobes and verify the slip rate.

    The preceding is suitable for controversy-free conventional mainstream publication.

    WATER is a big source of long-run surface counterbalance in the Earth-Moon system (no “point mass” hear). People are quick to remember gravitational tides, but they need frequent reminding of thermal tides.

    For bigger picture comparison — from Jupiter-Saturn slip frame:
    96.1829470900286 = beat(65.8581963269421,208.886643858908) — ERSSTv3b2 EOF PCs 1234
    96.1829470900285 = beat(50.0715412599931,104.443321929454)
    96.1829470900285 = axial(178.266850068779,208.886643858908)
    96.1829470900286 = axial(131.716392653884,356.533700137559)
    96.1829470900285 = axial(104.443321929454,1216.12719789676)
    96.1829470900284 = axial(100.143082519986,2432.25439579341)
    96.1829470900286 = harmean(65.8581963269421,178.266850068779)
    96.1829470900285 = harmean(50.0715412599931,1216.12719789676)

    May peace be with you – weather academic populist or not.
    And may God bless our course to peaceful unity.

    typo above: 27.03 is from axial periods, not beats.

  7. oldmanK says:

    Dave Ward says: — ‘So add at least a years supply of fuel, fresh water & food. And for good measure, some guns and lots of ammo to fend off all the desperate folks trying to get to your supplies…’ —
    That is a veritable dead end. That precludes continuity. It is forgotten that a hundred years ago (plus a decade or so) electricity was an unknown convenience. Humanity still thrived.

    Gamecock says: — ‘–most of the bad stuff has already happened.–‘. The bad stuff is revisited on the earth periodically.

    The name of the game is ‘organisation’ on a wide social level, for a different circumstance. Covid is an eye opener. People queue for food, while farmers ploughed the growing food under as it rotted in the field. That which was collected rotted in storage. Yet the non-important for survival kept going in the name of economy, just to keep the pandemic going strong.

  8. oldbrew says:

    image caption: The Aurora Borealis is seen in the sky over Muonio in Lapland, Finland.

  9. Dave Ward says:

    @ oldmanK

    “That is a veritable dead end”

    I know it is, but I brought it up as a way of showing just how serious a CME induced national/international grid outage – complete with numerous large transformers being burnt out – would be. We’re not talking about a “Black Start” event, where the vast majority of equipment remains serviceable, and which can be gradually re-started and synchronised.

    “It is forgotten that a hundred years ago (plus a decade or so) electricity was an unknown convenience. Humanity still thrived”

    But a hundred years ago nobody had experienced the benefits of electricity, so they lived life according to what they had at the time. There is simply no way that several billion people living in the “developed world” are going to cope with suddenly losing everything they presently rely on, almost overnight.

  10. oldbrew says:

    A CME can only hit the side of the Earth facing the sun at the time of its arrival.

  11. oldmanK says:

    @ Dave Ward

    Agreed, on both issues.

    It is not just burnt transformers. Most plant today relies on electronics; the more modern the more voltage spike sensitive. But not only. Commerce, production, and hospitals all rely greatly on electronics.

    I recall specifying for a ‘black start generator’. Electronics in governing had to be excluded, as per code. I also recall the older system where even the compressor for starting the gen was hand cranked. We also did face the need to keep it serviceable. The need to have a backup plan for such “low probability high impact” events has been highlighted by Covid. Keeping the ‘Food-Chain’ serviceable does not require high technology but wise planning.

  12. Gamecock says:

    Y’all be careful going down the steps. Which has a vastly greater chance of killing you than a CME.

    “A CME can only hit the side of the Earth facing the sun at the time of its arrival.”

    Not exactly. The earth’s magnetic field will redirect some of it. I.e., more than 50% of the earth will get it.


  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    Deep port mint $ave!
    Comm. ERSST

    sens sov. home more
    cold ware? meant a11 IT

    need dem hawk crow
    seas pry D-UKsh!own (soveara11billeyeyen-D-eelair$)

    65.8581963269421 = beat(50.0715412599931,208.886643858908)
    65.8581963269422 = axial(104.443321929454,178.266850068779)
    65.8581963269421 = axial(96.1829470900285,208.886643858908) —- ERSSTv3b2 EOF PCs
    65.8581963269421 = harmean(50.0715412599931,96.1829470900285)

    “words R-vary UN nos. US eerie” — “UNjoy th’US sci11UNs” D-eepUShhhhm[ut]e

  14. oldmanK says:

    Gamecock says: January 24, 2021 at 12:32 pm

    “Y’all be careful going down the steps. Which has a vastly greater chance of killing you than a CME. ”

    If its the other half that gets it, we won’t even notice. Until we realise we rely on that other half for much in life. Reality check they say; its all integrated.

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