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Not seeing any evidence of the ‘milder winters…expected in the United Kingdom (Murphy et al. 2018), with less frequent cold extremes and new high temperature records’ so far this winter. Snow or sleet at random every few days would be more in line with reality.
Over the years, Richard Betts of the Met Office, has been the ‘sceptic’s friend’; a down to earth, reasonable, approachable, pragmatic scientist who actively sought to present a balanced view on the risks associated with climate change and to counter the alarmism and hyperbole put out in the press and supported by some of his more enthusiastic peers, as well as overtly political climate activists. Sadly, he has now jumped the shark completely, even to the point of insulting sceptics by implying that they are ‘deniers’, a term he always refrained from using. He’s even, by the sound of it, helping Extinction Rebellion fanatics arrested for breaking the law defend their actions in court by providing them with scientific ‘evidence’ which supposedly justifies their unlawful activities.
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Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Self serving conformity or profoundly held belief?
Why the change in tune? – any BBC pundit gigs in the offing?
One of our recent posts…
Roger Pielke Jr: The unstoppable momentum of outdated science
Posted: December 3, 2020
We find that the most commonly-used scenarios in climate research have already diverged significantly from the real world, and that divergence is going to only get larger in coming decades.
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So whenever warming fails to match the predictions, like now, they predict even more warming and/or try to hide behind the fig leaf of ‘extreme weather’, which is supposed somehow to be linked to a few extra molecules of a trace gas in the atmosphere, put there by naughty humans. Unfortunately for them any glance at history shows extreme weather events are a normal part of Earth’s climate.
It’s the Brave New World. Everybody’s a victim and we will show your place in the lexicon of victimology. You cannot escape.
Our pseudoscientific opponents are emboldened by the compliant response of the public to the imposition of irrationality. We can expect the cacophony of climate-screeching to rise to a crescendo as COP26 draws nigh.
“Our pseudoscientific opponents are emboldened by the compliant response of the public to the imposition of irrationality.”
‘In my study of communist societies, I came to the conclusion that the purpose of communist propaganda was not to persuade or convince, nor to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is to co-operate with evil, and in some small way to become evil oneself. One’s standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control.’ – Theodore Dalrymple
We can expect the cacophony of climate-screeching to rise to a crescendo as COP26 draws nigh.
Will a COVID vaccination at least 21 days prior to alarm-fest #26 be mandatory for
party-goersattendees?No doubt Richard Betts had his annual job review and was marked low on Climate Change promotion.
And these Attribution Studies are utter junk science. They use the models to “prove” the same models. To claim that a single wholly mechanistic event was 20% more likely to have occurred when it did actually occur is nonsensical. It is to impart the uncertainty of the model into the non-uncertainty of the real world. And the uncertainty of the model is there because it cannot model the real world.
Sigh.
Betts is marching to the new US climate drumbeat…
US Announces Plans for NDC and Whole-of-Government Climate Action
27 January 2021
The US President has instructed federal agencies to procure carbon pollution-free electricity and clean, zero-emission vehicles.
https://sdg.iisd.org/news/us-announces-plans-for-ndc-and-whole-of-government-climate-action/
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Anyone sensible knows there’s no such thing as ‘carbon pollution’ (in terms of carbon dioxide). The ‘zero-emission’ vehicles depend on vast amounts of mining and energy-intensive steel production.
I thought he had been headed that way for years.
He now works for BEIS: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/management
He has to keep on-side for Glasgow.
He introduced the “global heating” meme: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/13/global-heating-more-accurate-to-describe-risks-to-planet-says-key-scientist
Jamal Munshi has looked at “Attribution studies” CIRCULAR REASONING IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH – JAMAL MUNSHI
“A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change research. It is facilitated by confirmation bias and by activism such that the prior conviction of researchers is subsumed into the methodology. Example research papers on the impact of fossil fuel emissions on tropical cyclones, on sea level rise, and on the carbon cycle demonstrate that the conclusions drawn by researchers about their anthropogenic cause derive from circular reasoning.”
He also reveals why “attribution” is needed – the money of course:
EVENT ATTRIBUTION AND THE PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR ENGLAND AND WALES
JAMAL MUNSHI
“Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts (UNFCCC, 2013). The Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) has redefined climate change adaptation funding as a form of compensation for “loss and damage” suffered by the VNAL countries because of extreme weather events caused by fossil fuel emissions which are thought to be mostly a product of the industrialized countries. Accordingly, the WIM requires that loss and damage suffered by the VNAL countries for which compensation is sought from climate adaptation funds must be attributable to fossil fuel emissions.”
“A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change research.”
There is also the stink of appeal to ignorance. They don’t know what causes changes in GMT, so “it must be Man.” They can’t figure it out, so it is your fault. And ‘fault’ implies it’s bad. It is self evident that small increases in GMT are actually good.
Latest junk science from the BBC:
The foods that reverse climate change
https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/the-foods-that-reverse-climate-change/
Only the gullible could fall for this gibberish. Rice growing and farming are supposed to change the weather, blah blah.
The appeal of extreme weather attribution to the climastrologists is obvious. If specific weather events can be ‘blamed’ on man-made climate change, then this is a boon for communicating to the public the supposed impacts of climate change on their lives and on the environment, here and now. A 1 or 2C rise in global mean temperature over 50, 100 or 150 years is just too abstract a ‘threat’ for the public to fully comprehend and respond to. But tell them that the water which flooded their house this winter or the prolonged heatwave which turned their nice green lawn a yucky shade of brown last summer was because of their energy profligate Western lifestyles and they just might listen. After all, they’ve swallowed lock, stock and barrel the absurdity that wearing a flimsy mask in a supermarket saves lives, so why not now the unscientific twaddle that driving the kids to school and going on holiday to Spain causes bad weather?
Getting rid of human-emitted CO2 means degrading your modern lifestyle and support systems. How’s that for a simple message to the public?
Actually Jaime they’ve changed strategy. People like me who almost never drive, absolutely never fly, and consume almost nothing (the environmentalist strategy we adopted decades ago before climate became the centerpiece) are no longer celebrated by today’s green movement. Today’s morphing green movement wants to make sure wealthy aggressive bullies feel welcome. You will find articles about this strategy if you look around. Their marketing research tuned them into what turns off talented potential donors and influencers. There was advice to revise the recruitment pitch to de-emphasize self-deprivation (realizing it leads a lot of good-intending people only to uninfluential poverty) and instead tell people they can keep their lifestyle how it is if they get involved in energetically protesting and pressuring corporations, governments, etc. The strategy switch is working well for them. Those who sacrificed for the environment (not a synonym of climate) as I did heavily for decades are not rewarded by the establishment for our choice — quite the contrary. Today’s green movement is dominated by people whose ecological footprint is easily many hundred times (in many cases many thousand times) mine. When they need to travel internationally during the pandemic, the government cowers because of their “rights”. Meanwhile poor working class people with a fraction of the ecological footprint might not be allowed out for a 1km solo walk after 6pm. Summary: financial inequality became “green” leverage.
If there was really a human-caused problem with the climate as serious as they say they wouldn’t debate and campaign but simply reduce the human population to half a billion or less.
Your PM is turning out to be the anti-Churchill; Biden is more and more the Governor from Blazing Saddles. What could possibly go wrong with that?
Another conspicuous climate scientist fallacy is the idea that if they take the average of 30 climate models, each of which is known to be wrong individually, that somehow that average is a valid prediction. When, of course, the average of junk is . . . junk.
“I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.” – Thomas Carlyle
NASA: Antarctic sea ice is growing, but we don’t know why
Date: 31/01/21 NASA Earth Data
Sea ice in the Southern Ocean defies predictions. Observations show that ice extent in the Antarctic has been growing slightly.
https://www.thegwpf.com/nasa-antarctic-sea-ice-is-growing-and-we-dont-know-why/
Settled science scratches its head 🤔
‘To Holland, the discrepancy calls parts of the climate models into question. Modeling groups from around the world collaborate on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which simulates Earth’s climate and predicts how it will change in the near future. World leaders and policy makers rely on it to decide how much countries should limit carbon emissions, known to cause some aspects of climate change.
“Almost all of the CMIP5 models produce a decrease in Antarctic sea ice,” Holland said. “There is a problem in the bit that reproduces the last 30 years of sea ice variability.” ‘
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/learn/sensing-our-planet/unexpected-ice