Solar activity and climate – part 2

Posted: January 28, 2021 by oldbrew in Cycles, data, solar system dynamics
Tags: , , ,

Sunspots


In a recent post we looked at the average daily sunspot numbers, finding that far from the claimed decades-long decline of solar strength, averages were high from 1933-2008 followed by a sharp decline in the recently-ended solar cycle 24.

This time the focus moves to another metric from the same source, Wikipedia’s List of solar cycles.

After the main table of data they introduce another one, stating:
The following table is instead divided into (unofficial) cycles starting and ending with a maximum, to give a better feel for the number of spotless days associated with each minimum.

For this short exercise the ‘Spotless days’ column of data will be split into two groups of six, comparing the overall average of each from the list.

Group 1 (‘Start(maximum)’ data from 1878-1928 inclusive):
Solar cycle 11-12 1870-08 1028 spotless days
Solar cycle 12-13 1883-12 736
Solar cycle 13-14 1894-01 934
Solar cycle 14-15 1906-02 1023
Solar cycle 15-16 1917-08 534
Solar cycle 16-17 1928-04 568

Sum of spotless days: 4823
Average per cycle: 803.8

Group 2 (‘Start(maximum)’ data from 1937-1989 inclusive):
Solar cycle 17-18 1937-04 269 spotless days
Solar cycle 18-19 1947-05 446
Solar cycle 19-20 1958-03 227
Solar cycle 20-21 1968-11 272
Solar cycle 21-22 1979-12 273
Solar cycle 22-23 1989-10 309

Sum of spotless days: 1796
Average per cycle: 299.3

Few would dispute that more global warming occurred in the more recent group 2 than the earlier group 1. The spotless day averages reflect this, with group 2 being a lot less than half of the group 1 number.

Turning to the latest figures:
Solar cycle 23-24 2001-11 817 spotless days
Solar cycle 24-25 2014-04 808 (Jan 27 2021)

Now the ‘virtual’ pendulum is swinging back the other way again, towards much higher numbers of spotless days.

We await to see what, if any, effect this may have on global temperatures if the trend continues for a significant length of time.

Comments
  1. Paul Vaughan says:

    “We await to see what, if any, effect this may have on global temperatures if the trend continues for a significant length of time.”

    There seems to be a major misunderstanding, misinterpretation, or misrepresentation.

    Wikipedia has tons of absolutely fantastic math pages, but I would never look at wikipedia “pages on solar solar activity”.

    2058: the next scheduled review of solar-climate relations.

  2. gbaikie says:

    I wondering how long sun spots lasts.
    It seems it would matter, if sun spots only lasted short time period as compared longer periods.
    It matters in sense if have shorter durations, the entire sun would have more spots.
    And more formation and collapse may reflect the energic aspect of sun.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Any given appearance of a sunspot may last anywhere from a few days to a few months, though groups of sunspots and their active regions tend to last weeks or months, but all do eventually decay and disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot#Lifecycle
    = = =
    More problems with clouds…

    JANUARY 28, 2021
    Aerosol particles cool the climate less than we thought

    “Our conclusion is that the cooling effect of aerosols on clouds is overestimated when we rely on ship-track data,” says Glassmeier. “Ship tracks are simply too short-lived to provide the correct estimate of cloud brightening.” The reason for this is that ship-track data don’t account for the reduced cloud thickness that occurs in widespread pollution. “To properly quantify these effects and get better climate projections, we need to improve the way clouds are represented in climate models,” Glassmeier explains further.

    The study also has implications in the context of climate engineering. [bold added]

    https://phys.org/news/2021-01-aerosol-particles-cool-climate-thought.html

  4. oldbrew says:

    Millennium-Scale Sunspot Number Reconstruction: Evidence for an Unusually Active Sun since the 1940s
    Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi Mursula, and Katja Alanko
    Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 211101 – Published 19 November 2003

    ABSTRACT
    The extension of the sunspot number series backward in time is of considerable interest for dynamo theory, solar, stellar, and climate research. We have used records of the 10Be concentration in polar ice to reconstruct the average sunspot activity level for the period between the year 850 to the present. Our method uses physical models for processes connecting the 10Be concentration with the sunspot number. The reconstruction shows reliably that the period of high solar activity during the last 60 years is unique throughout the past 1150 years. This nearly triples the time interval for which such a statement could be made previously. [bold added]

    https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.211101

  5. oldbrew says:

    Could Recent U.S. Warming Trends be Largely Spurious?
    January 29th, 2021 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    Several lines of evidence suggest observed warming trends are not nearly as large as what you have been told.
    . . .
    I am not claiming there has been no global warming (whatever the cause). I am claiming that there is evidence of spurious warming in thermometer data which must be removed.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/01/could-recent-u-s-warming-trends-be-largely-spurious/

    Conclusion

    It seems to me that there remains considerable uncertainty in just how much the U.S. has warmed in recent decades, even among the established, official, ‘homogenized’ datasets. This has a direct impact on the “validation” of climate models relied upon by the new Biden Administration for establishing energy policy.

    I would not be surprised if such problems exist in global land temperature datasets in addition to the U.S.

    I’m not claiming I know how much it has (or hasn’t) warmed. Instead, I’m saying I am still very suspicious of existing official land temperature datasets.
    = = =
    Climate-obsessed leaders don’t recognise the concept of uncertainty in climate matters any more, if they ever did. Their motto seems to be: ‘plough on regardless’. Consequences are someone else’s problem.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Open Access
    Published: 17 January 2021
    Detection of non‐climatic biases in land surface temperature records by comparing climatic data and their model simulations
    Nicola Scafetta

    Abstract
    The 0.6 °C warming observed in global temperature datasets from 1940-1960 to 2000–2020 can be partially due to urban heat island (UHI) and other non-climatic biases in the underlying data, although several previous studies have argued to the contrary.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05626-x
    – – –
    Roy Spencer is saying something similar.

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB: Climate discourse is permanent stalemate no matter what is said or done. Imagine tomorrow you post the solution to ENSO and it passes ALL scrutiny. The result: climate stalemate won’t even flinch in the long-run no matter the short-term excitation of over-reactionary activists.

  8. oldbrew says:

    The debate may be over, such as it was or wasn’t, but the science can never be over.

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    I grew up exploring forests, fields, rivers, lakes.
    Later I was a mountain guide. I found endless joy in healthy discovery.

    I shared outdoor findings debate- & harassment-free.
    There was neither discursive torture nor disbelief.

    Weather left or right:
    Media “science” — in sharp contrast — means “political hammer” and offers not joy but punishing psy-ops.

    Elite-sponsored blog & media armies of speed-chess players professing “science” slave like obedient hamsters spinning short-term political timetables that mean nothing in the long-run.

    We should entirely divorce the exploratory discourse from menacing political timetables (impossible if naive, ignorant, & deceptive media-handlers are directing under pressure of trolllionairfirehose).

    My inclination at this stage is to double down on very specific boycotts — maybe for at least 2 more decades.

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