Another pillar of ‘settled’ climate science trembles. It’s described as ‘one of the largest uncertainties faced by climate scientists.’ Is there a list of these uncertainties somewhere?
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The impact of atmospheric aerosols on clouds and climate may be different than previously thought, reports Phys.org.
That is the conclusion of cloud researcher Franziska Glassmeier from TU Delft. The results of her study will be published in Science on Friday, January 29th.
Cloud decks cover vast stretches of the subtropical oceans. They cool the planet because they reflect incoming sunlight back to space.
Air pollution in the form of aerosols—particles suspended in the atmosphere—can increase this cooling effect because it makes clouds brighter.
The cooling effect of pollution offsets part of the warming effect of greenhouse gases. How much exactly, is one of the largest uncertainties faced by climate scientists.
Ship tracks
A striking illustration of clouds becoming brighter as a result of aerosols, is provided by shipping emissions in the form of “ship tracks.” These are visible as bright lines within a cloud deck that reveal the paths of polluting ships that travel beneath the clouds.
“Such ship tracks are a good example of how aerosol effects on clouds are traditionally thought of, and of how they are still represented in most climate models,” says Glassmeier.
But according to the cloud researcher, ship tracks do not tell the whole story.
Continued here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
So they binned the measurements of ship tracks and developed a 100 odd simulations!
Progress of sorts – as they see it.
“By comparing detailed numerical simulations with satellite analyses, we show that ship-track studies cannot be generalized to estimate the climatological forcing of anthropogenic aerosol. The ship track–derived sensitivity of the radiative effect of nonprecipitating stratocumulus to aerosol overestimates their cooling effect by up to 200%.”
Oh dear, if this turns out to be correct, they’re going to have to downgrade their sensitivity estimates fairly radically, especially in the CMIP6 models which rely upon huge aerosol forcings to cool the past sufficiently to get accurate hindcasts. They’re also going to have a problem explaining the mid 20th century cooling which they insist was largely due to aerosols.
‘Settled science’ can be a pain at times.
Jaime says…
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I was thinking along those lines myself, so thanks for expressing it so clearly 👍
Funny how it’s OK to spend taxpayers’ billions, or was it trillions, on a problem that is found only in climate models riddled with uncertainties. Why would you do that?
‘one of the largest uncertainties faced by climate scientists’
I’ve never met an uncertain climate scientist. They are characterized by their certainty.
‘The impact of atmospheric aerosols on clouds and climate may be different than previously thought’
Each new development falsifies all previous models. It is self evident Man doesn’t know enough to model climate. Dr Glassmeier adds to our knowledge, but doesn’t give us the final answer. We still don’t know.
Aerosol particles cool the climate less than we thought
Which ‘we’ would that be — the groupthinkers?
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Phys.org today: ‘Arctic warming and diminishing sea ice are influencing the atmosphere’
by University of Helsinki
Here’s the image they show 😆
In Svalbard, surrounded by open waters, the observations showed how sulfur-compounds emitted by phytoplankton could form a large amount of particles that could grow fast, and can even form cloud droplets. In the studies of Svalbard also organic compounds were detected.
The large amount and role of organic compounds in the Arctic particle formation surprised the researchers.
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-arctic-diminishing-sea-ice-atmosphere.html
there is NO greenhouse!! for the 2,987,436th time!! Until someone can show me how a greenhouse with no roof is a green house and explain why there is NO mid tropospheric hot spot then there is no effing greenhouse.
However, to keep the cash flowing they keep the BS flowing. If I had a dollar for every time these Klimate Klowns were “surprised” by actual science I’d have my own tropical island to retire on.
Once again it’s all down to models. Models that have NEVER been right about anything.
“There are some mistakes only someone with a Ph.D. can make.” Daniel Patrck Moynihan