People are driving electric vehicles less than projected

Posted: February 10, 2021 by oldbrew in Batteries, Travel, Uncertainty
Tags:

Not the latest model


Reluctance to having to waste time looking for and/or using public charging stations might be a factor, plus the old favourite of range anxiety. An EV may also be the second car in a household, in the US at least.
– – –
New data indicates that electric vehicles may not be an easy future substitute for the gasoline-powered fleet, as EVs are currently being used half as much as conventional cars, says TechXplore.

That is according to a paper published from the University of Chicago, University of California, Davis, and UC Berkeley.

As the Biden administration voices its commitment to moving the country toward electric vehicles, or EVs, and states like California work to ban the sale of new fully gas-powered cars in the next 15 years, the pledge for an EV-powered fleet leaves a question unanswered: Are consumers actually driving them?

New research shows EVs are being driven far less than policymakers think.

“There’s still so much we don’t know about the costs and benefits of EVs, so it seems appropriate to have some humility around this energy transition,” said co-author David Rapson, an associate professor at the UC Davis Economics Department. “Approaches that leave multiple technology pathways open are desirable; bans and mandates seem premature.”

The research team combined billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level EV registration records in California—home to about half of the EVs in the United States.

They find that the arrival of an EV increases household electricity consumption by 2.9 kilowatt hours per day—less than half the amount assumed by state regulators.

Adjusted for the share of out-of-home charging, the electricity consumed translates to about 5,300 electric vehicle miles traveled, or eVMT, per year, roughly half as large as EV driving estimates used by regulators and also half as large as vehicle miles traveled in gasoline-powered cars.

“The takeaway here is not that EVs should never or will never be our future,” said co-author Fiona Burlig, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. “It’s rather that policymakers may be underestimating the costs of going fully electric.”

The research also studied different types of EVs and found that Teslas consume almost twice the amount of electricity per hour than the others studied.

This is likely due to a combination of factors, including Tesla’s higher battery capacity.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Phoenix44 says:

    So people who have 2 cars may have an EV for short range/vanity/shame reasons and to avoid charges or take advantage of subsudies and a second ICE car for everything else. Well I never. It’s almost as if human en masses are largely rational beings that maximise their utility.

  2. oldbrew says:

    Cheap California car pool stickers are an EV incentive, but only valid for new cars and for about 3 years.

    https://evlife.co/blog/california-carpool-sticker-electric-car/

    Favouring the well-off in effect, but…

    New stickers for low-income drivers with used EVs

    Thanks to a new law, SB 957, that took effect January 1, 2020, lower income drivers can now apply for California carpool stickers for used electric cars.
    – – –
    Of course the more stickers there are in use, the less the benefit in having one…

    As electric car adoption continues to accelerate, offering the California carpool sticker will move closer to extinction. Unless the carpool program is extended in the legislature, all California carpool stickers are scheduled to end on September 30, 2025, so get your carpool sticker before they’re gone.

  3. Gamecock says:

    “As electric car adoption continues to accelerate”

    [citation needed]

    ‘bans and mandates seem premature’

    The subtext of the report is fascist control. They are working on deciding for you what you can drive. Their belief is that if they decide something is best, not you deciding what is best for you, then they can demand it. Bans and mandates are still on the table, they just haven’t decided yet. Don’t get the idea that you still have freedom.

  4. Chaswarnertoo says:

    We have 100 years of oil and 10years of lithium. I’ll wait…

  5. oldbrew says:

    Or we might say: ‘People are driving less electric vehicles than projected’…

    In the United States only about 1.3 percent of all vehicles sold last year were battery powered. And about 90 percent of those sales were by one company—Tesla.

    https://techxplore.com/news/2021-02-tesla-advantage-evs-parallel-supercharging.html
    – – –
    Tesla is propped up to some extent by ’emissions’ regs.

    Without zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) and other regulatory credits, Tesla would not have been able to report a four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability, a milestone it reported Wednesday that meets the qualifications for Tesla to join the S&P 500.
    . . .
    In 2019 Tesla sold around $594 million in regulatory credits, up from $419 million in 2018.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/teslas-sale-of-environmental-credits-help-drive-to-profitability.html

  6. oldbrew says:

    Range anxiety fades if you’re not allowed to travel much anyway, or get priced out of it…

    Reducing CO2 in the atmosphere would require COVID-like lockdowns for decades, climate scientists warn
    Date: 10/02/21

    “To reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in the long run, restrictions imposed during the corona pandemic would have to be continued for decades. But even this would be far from being sufficient.”

    https://www.thegwpf.com/reducing-co2-in-the-atmosphere-would-require-covid-like-lockdowns-for-decades-climate-scientists-warn/

  7. saighdear says:

    @oldbrew: indeed,covid lockdowns: so why purchase that or any other vehicle, for that matter.
    Rest of the ( developing / expanding markets) world with no rural infrastructure – are they going to buy ALL their newvehicles from NON-european Manufr’rs? Looks like the green blob don’t want european Manuf’rs to make any fossilfuelled vehicles.
    I NOTE too, that our local large EV Charging point is extremely busy this past couple a days ( sarc. ) Any feedback from any EV Users this past week or two?

  8. Coeur de Lion says:

    An EV is supposed to be cheaper in fuel costs. EV drivers may be in for a mild shock if that’s what they bought one for. European consortium IONITI charges 0.69 euros (say 60 pence) per KWh Say £24 for 40Kwh for 150 miles? Headlights and heater? I pay say £55 for 450 miles and my Adblu diesel costs a mere £20 p a in road tax BECAUSE IT IS SO CLEAN !

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