Weakest Link To EV Growth Is The Material Supply Chain

Posted: February 18, 2021 by oldbrew in Analysis, Batteries, Travel
Tags: ,

We’re gonna need a bigger world!

PA Pundits - International

By Ronald Stein ~

The worldwide plans for EV domination of the vehicle population are like having the plans to build a large house without sufficient materials available to ever finish the house.

The pressure to go Green is increasing as countries are announcing plans to phase out petrol and diesel cars. Germany will stop the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, Scotland from 2032, and France and the UK from 2040.

Even California, the current leader in America with 50 percent of the EV’s in country being in that state, has jumped onto the EV train with Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, who will be on the 2021 Recall ballot, issued an Executive Order in 2020 to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles in California by 2035.

A Tesla lithium EV battery weighs more than 1,000 pounds. While there are dozens of variations…

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  1. ivan says:

    I would say the main problem with the push for EV use is the total lack of enough electricity generating capacity and charging ability. The next problem is the lack of enough raw materials to make the batteries.

    The answer is hybrid diesel with electric drive. They only need a small battery to start the diesel and there is no problem with reduced battery capacity because of cold weather.

  2. E.M.Smith says:

    It is even worse than that. He only looks at the battery, but there is far more to the whole system. Fat copper cables from the charger to the car. Big inductors to carry big currents in the chargers and upstream high power transformers.

    The entire Electrical Grid at present only carries about the same power as is used for fuels in transporation, so essentially you will need as much copper, aluminum, steel, concrete and more as is presently in use in ALL the grid and generation facilities today to provide the power to charge those batteries.

    A grid that was built over 50 to 100 years, to be replicated in a decade or 2 at most. That’s a whole lot of mining, refining, and fabricating of copper, steel, and aluminum using a whole lot of fossil fuels in the process. (Don’t forget to allow for duplicating / doubling every single power substation in the world… with all those transformers and power lines and acres covered…)

    But even that may not be sized right. Instead of building nuclear and coal powered large power stations needing one set of high voltage wires, “the plan” is to distribute wind turbines and solar panels all over the place. That will require vastly more cables, towers, transformers, etc. to knit it all together and get the power to the cities. (Not to mention the big lumps of rotating copper in the wind turbines…)

    The “balance of system” mineral demands will be horrific. “Good luck with that!”

  3. oldbrew says:

    Germany will stop the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, Scotland from 2032, and France and the UK from 2040.

    But Scotland is in the UK, so that should be interesting. Car dealers around Newcastle and Carlisle could be busy.

    An estimated 2.9m motorists in Scotland run petrol and diesel cars. If most are to use electricity by 2035, then an average of 540 drivers need to make the switch each day.


    That was written last year.

  4. JB says:

    We’re going back to jinrikishas and horse-drawn carriages.
    Don’t expect to see fresh fruits in ports anymore.

  5. cognog2 says:

    How many EV batteries does it take to kill a Congolese kid?

    AND: Batteries don’t produce any energy at all. They are net consumers . Someone has to actually charge them up. Congolese kids can’t do that; the only energy they have comes from what they can scrape out of the ground.

  6. Curious George says:

    The weakest link to the EV growth is a total lack of acceptance by the public. They are not yet practical enough. It is an immature technology.

  7. Gamecock says:

    “It is an immature technology.”

    No, sir. It is a very mature technology. And yet it fails. For the same reasons it died out a 100 years ago.

  8. tom0mason says:

    THE weakest link in the EV growth is the ‘greens’ evident belief that you can get something for nothing!

  9. Chaswarnertoo says:

    We have ten years supply of cobalt and lithium and 100+ years of oil. I’ll wait.

  10. Phoenix44 says:

    This is somewhat naive I fear. If many people cannot afford an EV (scarcityof materials drives up price) then the politicians and Green activists won’t mind. We will simply have to use something other than cars.

    These policies are making civil unrest or worse almost inevitable. I struggle to see a peaceful transition for much of the mid-West in the US to a non-fossil fuel based economy and society imposed from the coasts. The same is true across much of France south of Paris. Southern Spain will revert to a 1920s level of poverty without mass-market tourism, the islands of Greece the same. EVs will be largely useless across swathes of Canada for at least a third of the year. Greens and idiot politicians expect us to either not notice until it is too late or to meekly accept becoming much poorer. That seems unlikely.

  11. Gamecock says:

    Don’t worry, Phoenix. As politicians kill Western prosperity, decadence will end. The people will fight back, once they start losing their comfort.

    E.g., I wouldn’t want to be a wind turbine salesman in Texas right now.

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