The Chance of Storms Just Doubled

Posted: April 8, 2021 by oldbrew in Geomagnetism, Natural Variation, predictions


A prediction for the Talkshop to mull over.

April 8, 2021: If you think you are safe from geomagnetic storms, think again. A new study just published in the journal Space Weather finds that powerful storms may be twice as likely as previously thought.

Jeffrey Love of the USGS, who authored the study, analyzed Earth’s strongest geomagnetic storms since the early 1900s. Previous studies looked back only to the 1950s. The extra data led to a surprise:

“A storm as intense as, say, the Québec Blackout of 1989 is predicted to occur, on average, about every four solar cycles. This is twice as often as estimated using only the traditional shorter dataset,” says Love.

Above: The data Love used in his extreme value analysis. Red and blue circles denote the two strongest storms in each solar cycle.

A study like this is part physics, part math, and part detective work.

Love has spent recent years digging deeply into…

View original post 440 more words

  1. oldbrew says:

    Extreme‐event magnetic storm probabilities derived from rank statistics of historical Dst intensities for solar cycles 14‐24
    Jeffrey J. Love
    First published: 12 March 2021

    Plain Language Summary

    Past and possible future magnetic storm intensities are investigated. As part of this work, a dataset is developed of the most intense and second most intense storms for each of the past eleven solar cycles (1902‐2016) – augmenting a traditional dataset that only covers the past six solar cycles (1957‐2016) with recently published intensities for several magnetic superstorms and with new storm intensity estimates, reported here and derived from historical magnetic observatory records. These data are analyzed using statistical methods that provide estimates of the probability of future magnetic superstorms. A storm as intense as that of March 1989, which caused widespread disruption of technological systems and an electricity blackout in Québec, Canada, is predicted to occur, on average, about every four solar cycles. This is twice as often as estimated using only the traditional shorter dataset. A once‐per‐century storm is estimated to be more substantially more intense than that of March 1989.

    This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. ren says:

    Sorry to go off topic, but air from Greenland is approaching the UK.

  3. ren says:

    Sunspots in this cycle show extremely weak magnetic activity. Weak geomagnetic storms are caused only by solar wind from coronal holes.

    What you see on the dial doesn’t even have the status of a sunspot.

  4. Bazmd says:

    When the suns polarity reverses there will be an increase activity. I’m going to go off on one for balance… The sun is claimed to have a constant output of power acting upon the earth. This is untrue.
    A microwave oven has the same output of power acting upon whatever is being defrosted or cooked, it has a higher and lower setting, the only difference between the higher and lower setting is the timing! A microwave oven for talk sake uses 750 watt of power to cook or defrost.
    What happens in reality is the output of the magnetron is turned on and off in sequential output cycles.
    Long defrosting cycles is where the power of 750 Watts is switched on less frequently. Where as cooking cycles is when the power is switched on more frequently.

    It’s the same 750 watts and it can have an outcome depending on the preset cycles programmed into it.

    The Sun has preset natural cycles built in to its structure, it has cycles built into its planetary bodies, that regulate and interact with each other,

  5. Jaime Jessop says:

    “Qualitatively, the solar-cycle-ranked storm intensities, −Dst1and −Dst2, shown in Figure 1(a) and listed in Table 1, are not uniformly distributed in time. There were, for example, four so-called ”superstorms,” with −Dstm> 500 nT (e.g.,Lakhina and Tsurutani, 2018), during solar cycles 14-18 (October 1903, September 1909, May 1921, March 1946), but only two such storms occurred during cycles 19-24 (March 1989 and November 2003).”

    As some of us already suspected, the chance of a particularly intense magnetic storm appears to be enhanced during periods of low solar activity compared to higher activity. Thus, if as predicted, cycles 25 onward are significantly weaker than cycles 19-24, the chances of a powerful magnetic storm occurring in the following decades will be more than double the chances of them occurring in the late 20th century, perhaps as much as quadruple.

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