Emperor penguins, Antarctica [image credit: USAF / Wikipedia]
Too much alarm coming from climate models, again. This new research finds ‘some regions near Antarctica even cool under climate change’.
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The melting rate of the Antarctic ice sheet is mainly controlled by the increase of ocean temperatures surrounding Antarctica.
Using a new, higher-resolution climate model simulation, scientists from Utrecht University found a much slower ocean temperature increase compared to current simulations with a coarser resolution, reports Phys.org.
Consequently, the projected sea-level rise in 100 years is about 25% lower than expected from the current simulations. These results are published today in the journal Science Advances.
Estimates for future sea-level rise are based on a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The output from these simulations helps to understand future climate change and its effects on the sea level.
Climate researchers continually aim to improve these models, for example by using a much higher spatial resolution that takes more details into account.
“High-resolution simulations can determine the ocean circulation much more accurately,” says Prof. Henk Dijkstra. Together with his Ph.D. candidate René van Westen, he has been studying ocean currents in high-resolution climate model simulations over the past few years.
Ocean eddies
The new high-resolution model takes into account ocean eddy processes. An eddy is a large (10-200 km) swirling and turbulent feature in the ocean circulation, which contributes to the transport of heat and salt.
Adding ocean eddies into the simulation leads to a more realistic representation of the ocean temperatures surrounding Antarctica, which is key for determining the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet.
“The Antarctic ice sheet is surrounded by ice shelves which reduce the flow of land ice into the ocean,” Van Westen explains. “Higher ocean temperatures around Antarctica increase the melting of these ice shelves, resulting in an acceleration of land ice into the ocean and consequently leading to more sea-level rise.”
The current climate model simulations, which do not take ocean eddies into account, project that the ocean temperatures around Antarctica are increasing under climate change. The new high-resolution simulation shows quite different behavior and some regions near Antarctica even cool under climate change.
“These regions appear to be more resilient under climate change,” says Van Westen. Dijkstra adds: “One obtains a very different temperature response due to ocean-eddy effects.”
Full report here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
“studying ocean currents in high-resolution climate model simulations over the past few years”
What a waste. No different than staring at video game graphics hours on end.
Reminds me of the last Mechanical “engineer” I worked with. He thought he was an adept engineer because he knew how to model with Solid Works. Yet 2½ years into a project and he had still not proven the product’s casework could be roto-moldable, and pass all the thermal specs plus UL. $250K spent only to find out it was impossible as originally conceived. Project got cancelled and he had to get outta town quick.
‘Estimates for future sea-level rise are based on a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The output from these simulations helps to understand future climate change and its effects on the sea level.’
Ensemble. Meaning the average of junk.
“I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.” – Thomas Carlyle
‘Climate researchers continually aim to improve these models, for example by using a much higher spatial resolution that takes more details into account.’
An admission that they are wrong. An admission that, with improvements, they will still be wrong.
‘“High-resolution simulations can determine the ocean circulation much more accurately,” says Prof. Henk Dijkstra. ‘
More accurately than what?
‘Together with his Ph.D. candidate René van Westen’
Credential inflation. He has not earned the right to have Ph.D. associated with his name.
You don’t call ’em “doctor” til after medical school. You don’t call them “doctor candidates.”
‘he has been studying ocean currents in high-resolution climate model simulations over the past few years.’
A wasted life.
I doubt they even considered the underwater volcanoes round the Antarctic.
All they have shown is that the climate models are wrong and no matter how they try and fudge them they remain wrong and ever will be so. I suppose the reason they like to play with climate models is that doing so allows them to sit an a nice warm office and play computer games rather than actually going out into the real world and taking real measurements – unfortunately, that would mean they would get cold and the measurements would show that the models were wrong. All that proves is that wackademics love their ivory towers for a reason, being there allows them to live in La-La land safe from reality.
If you look at a map of Antarctica you will see that the bulk of the ice lies in the
EastWest and as theEastWest sits on a volcanically active tectonic rift there is relatively little.Has this lousy high resolution computer program been informed of this?
It is amazing that rises of 0.007C/year temperatures and 2.5 to 3.00 mm of sea level can generate a multi million Grant based industry.
Sorry- typo- The WEST sits on the rift.
more grant farming using incompetent computer models. P.T. Barnum would be so proud of them.
“Consequently, the projected sea-level rise in 100 years is about 25% lower than expected from the current simulations. These results are published today in the journal Science Advances.”
Seems like some progress.
But some progress in the cargo cult, is to blacken the runway. But not make runway easier for the US cargo planes to land on.
Global temperature is average temperature of entire ocean.
The average temperature of entire ocean is cold.
It’s about 3.5 C and it’s been around 3.5 C for a few thousand years.
And global temperature is a few thousand year, thing. But the ocean may warm
by .5 C within a few centuries. And Little Ice Age was ocean cooling by about .2 C
over period of a few centuries. And since then it’s warmed by about .2 C.
Warming the entire ocean by 10ths of degree does have an apparent large effect, as the Little Ice
age was kind of big thing as far for human life living on Earth.
But if ocean were warm, rather than cold, then a few 10ths degree difference would be less of apparent large effect. Or if we had a warm ocean, Earth climate would be more stable {in terms any apparent effect upon humans}. And humans have never lived in world of warmer oceans.
Human came into existence during a 34 million year Ice Age. The “Late Cenozoic Ice Age, or Antarctic Glaciation”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Cenozoic_Ice_Age
Without allowing for the increase of human capability, as would happen if humans were to become a spacefaring civilization, human are roughly doomed to remain in this Ice Age for millions of years.
Recently I been thinking of how one could cool earth {without becoming spacefaring}. I don’t recommend cooling Earth.
Now the reason, Earth is warm {and it’s not actually very warm} is roughly due to having 70% of surface being ocean and only having 30% of surface being land.
So, if you increase the amount of land, Earth will cool.
And I mean lower global average surface temperature, which many people call Earth’s average temperature. But as I said, entire ocean temperature is actual global temperature.
So sea ice is sort of like a land surface. So to lower global air temperature {which I not saying is good idea, but crazy people want to do this] all need to do is make more sea ice- polar sea ice.
And the question is do want to cool southern hemisphere or the northern hemisphere or both.
To make polar sea ice, you just put and kept freshwater on the surface ocean during the winter.
And one do this cheaper than polluting the atmosphere. You could think of it as helping polar bears [if you happen to that disillusional- though it seem like fairly harmless type of craziness}.
Though if transport polar bears to south pole, then you going to terrorize the animals down there.
Warm tropical ocean currents flow into polar regions. When there is not much ice being pushed into the tropical ocean currents the warm water removes sea ice and turns on the great ice machines and rebuilds ice on land and lowers sea levels. This is honest simple stuff, proved by ice core data. In warm times, it snows more until sea level drops and temperatures decrease.
–popesclimatetheory says:
April 11, 2021 at 1:29 am–
There is at least these kinds of mechanism that is part why or are mostly keeping us in your Ice Age, and there also mechanisms which stop runaway cooling- which I think is more than just getting dirty glacial ice and/or higher inclination in which sunlight directly melts glacial ice.
And rather just snow fall that is building back the temperate ice sheet.
Just having more rainfall in arctic polar regions due higher global temperature/higher water vapor could be flooding a lot of freshwater into arctic ocean basin.
Current climate model simulations overestimate future…[insert doom-laden scenario here].
love it oldbrew!! *grin*
Yep! The future isn’t what it used to be.