The Termination Event

Posted: June 12, 2021 by oldbrew in Cycles, physics, predictions


Testable science ideas here. What’s not to like?

“What can I say?” laughs McIntosh. “We’re heretics!”

H/T g2

June 10, 2021: Something big may be about to happen on the sun. “We call it the Termination Event,” says Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), “and it’s very, very close to happening.”

If you’ve never heard of the Termination Event, you’re not alone.  Many researchers have never heard of it either. It’s a relatively new idea in solar physics championed by McIntosh and colleague Bob Leamon of the University of Maryland – Baltimore County. According to the two scientists, vast bands of magnetism are drifting across the surface of the sun. When oppositely-charged bands collide at the equator, they annihilate (or “terminate”). There’s no explosion; this is magnetism, not anti-matter. Nevertheless, the Termination Event is a big deal. It can kickstart the next solar cycle into a higher gear.

Above: Oppositely charged magnetic bands (red and blue) march toward the sun’s equator…

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  1. tallbloke says:

    From the full article:

    “Orthodox models of the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo favor a weak cycle.”

    Where can I find these “Orthodox models of the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo” please? Why are they evidently unable to forecast more than the current cycle? Why do they disagree by such large margins?

  2. ivan says:

    tallbloke, you are not supposed to ask questions like that because we were told back in 2014 that ‘the science is settled’.

    Actually I think the answer is because they don’t know and are just clutching at straws to gain grants.

  3. oldbrew says:

    TB – Wikipedia has a solar dynamo page. Unfortunately it says at the top:

    ‘This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page.’
    – – –
    Apparently there’s [quote] ‘A naturally occurring electric generator in the Sun’s interior’. Of course 😉

  4. saighdear says:

    Hmm, “A naturally occurring electric generator in the Sun’s interior” eh? Better ask our Minister of the Interior whether Carbon Credits have been traded to run that generator on naturally occurring F*s* fuel .

  5. P.A.Semi says:

    That “Termination Event” is rather a BS…?
    There is a normal new cycle start, just it had been intentionally calmed down…
    If you don’t believe in God and “intentionally calmed down”, then in my model, there are few week cycles ahead maybe even until the end of a century…? ( / SC25.pdf#page5 )
    Anyway, it seems obvious that the cycle start is weaker and slower than previous cycle start…

    The picture with magnetic polarities is cool… It’s a pity it is rather a model and does not show actual intensities?

    “Termination Event” is instead happening here on Earth:
    (C0vid V@x Gen0cide Planned)

    Further, I hope it’s some temporary failure and not a “Termination Event”, but it seems multiple NASA Solar servers were shut down yesterday evening…? (Or it’s a “normal” outage, and it will last until US Monday morning, when they’ll come to work to switch it back on?) – it seems time-outing already for at least 9 hours, and Stereo web-pages also…


  6. jb says:


    You mean watch and see…

  7. pochas94 says:

    It’s the government’s fault. They should not be creating science with their agenda driven grantsmanship.

  8. pochas94 says:

    I did not mean to disparage the present work on solar magnetic cycles. This is useful information. As to how to use it, needs more work.

  9. Curious George says:

    Joe Biden will prevent it for two trillion. G7 has been briefed on it.

  10. Tenuc Hardon says:

    I’m calling BS on this one, although it’s nice to have few mad heretical scientist around. The real problem is they haven’t a clue how the sun works or they wouldn’t have any trouble predicting the cycles for centuries ahead. I think Miles Mathis is on the right track and should be able to improve solar activity long-term activity forecasting if he can build on what he is doing now for the next few years.

    The Finer Points of Solar Cycle 25 – including another important prediction

    Click to access inner.pdf

  11. oldbrew says:

    Oulu Neutron Count is still high, at 9.2%.

    Higher than any time since April 1964 (when the data starts), apart from a spell around the end of the last solar cycle in 2008/9.
    = = =
    “We found that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be,” explains Leamon. “Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be.”

    That will be tested soon enough.

  12. Tenuc Hardon says:


    Yes,cosmic ray levels have been very high for several years – good graph from NASA here…

    This is a big worry for airline pilots as research indicates overexposure can lead to cardiac arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death.

    The other health worry is the lower levels of UV we’ve been witnessing over the past few yeas. UV is essential for vitamin D production and research shows low levels of this vitamin can lead to a weaker immune system. There have been a total of 892 spotless days over the last 6 years (2192 days), which means 40% fewer days when we can get a good dose of UV.

    I’ll be glad when the sun kicks back into life again, and things get back to normal.

  13. Bazmd says:

    They’re confusing magnetism with what is actually “polarity”, the sun has a polarity reversal, but it gets even more interesting when you look at how Jupiter and the sun produce a signal on earth, there is a spike in some orbital data between Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune until about 2030, other data I’ve looked into suggests that we’re already in an ongoing cooling period, 2032 will be the peak of modern warming and more cooling will persist until 2080 overall in general the planet is cooling with warm spikes. basically a variable climate resulting in the next glaciation. These short-term blips of warming and cooling are nothing compared to what happens that can end a major Ice age. I can only imagine how active the sun becomes, gradational forces must increase and that must increase geological activity on Earth. (is there a way to upload a chart here?).

  14. Bazmd says:


    Think my eyesight is going lol

  15. oldbrew says:

    @ Bazmd

    Info here:
    Anything already on the internet should display just by using its site address.

  16. Bazmd says:


    Thanks, I was just wondering if there was a feature to upload an image that maybe I didn’t know about, you won’t know if you don’t ask lol

    I received an e-mail about setting up a WordPress account so I’ll look into that option. I had to bend the ear off a few people over at Twitter to get my account unsuspended, Rog and others follow me over there. Talk soon.

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