Study ‘projects’ a surge in US coastal flooding starting in 2030s

Posted: July 9, 2021 by oldbrew in alarmism, Cycles, moon, predictions, research, sea levels
Tags:
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Credit: nationalreview.com

Anything supposedly ‘rapidly increasing’ or ‘extreme’ in Earth’s climate now or in the near future has to be treated with some suspicion, to say the least. Experience tells us alarmists armed with assumptions don’t need much excuse to go off the deep end to try and stir up the populace.
– – –
In the mid-2030s, every U.S. coast will experience rapidly increasing high-tide floods, when a lunar cycle will amplify rising sea levels caused by climate change, predicts Phys.org.

High-tide floods—also called nuisance floods or sunny day floods—are already a familiar problem in many cities on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 such floods in 2019.

Starting in the mid-2030s, however, the alignment of rising sea levels with a lunar cycle will cause coastal cities all around the U.S. to begin a decade of dramatic increases in flood numbers, according to the first study that takes into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods.

Led by the members of the NASA Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii, the new study shows that high tides will exceed known flooding thresholds around the country more often.

What’s more, the floods will sometimes occur in clusters lasting a month or longer, depending on the positions of the Moon, Earth, and the Sun. When the Moon and Earth line up in specific ways with each other and the Sun, the resulting gravitational pull and the ocean’s corresponding response may leave city dwellers coping with floods every day or two.

“Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change Team is providing crucial information so that we can plan, protect, and prevent damage to the environment and people’s livelihoods affected by flooding.”

“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study, published this month in Nature Climate Change.

Thompson pointed out that because high-tide floods involve a small amount of water compared to hurricane storm surges, there’s a tendency to view them as a less significant problem overall. “But if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot under water. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”

Why will cities on such widely separated coastlines begin to experience these higher rates of flooding at almost the same time? The main reason is a regular wobble in the Moon’s orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete. There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in 1728.

What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull—the main cause of Earth’s tides—will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.

In half of the Moon’s 18.6-year cycle, Earth’s regular daily tides are suppressed: High tides are lower than normal, and low tides are higher than normal. In the other half of the cycle, tides are amplified: High tides get higher, and low tides get lower.

Global sea level rise pushes high tides in only one direction—higher. So half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle counteracts the effect of sea level rise on high tides, and the other half increases the effect.

The Moon is in the tide-amplifying part of its cycle now. However, along most U.S. coastlines, sea levels have not risen so much that even with this lunar assist, high tides regularly top flooding thresholds.

It will be a different story the next time the cycle comes around to amplify tides again, in the mid-2030s. Global sea level rise will have been at work for another decade.

Full article here.

Nature article: Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    More about the lunar nodal cycle in Phys.org’s linked article:
    https://phys.org/news/2021-04-supermoon-lunar-masking-effects-sea.html

    Quote: The effect of the nodal cycle is gradual—it’s not anything that people would notice unless they pay ridiculously close attention to the precise movement of the moon and the tides for decades.

    But when it comes to predictions of tides, dozens of astronomical factors are accounted for, including the lunar nodal cycle.
    – – –
    No surprise that Wikipedia has picked up on this study, to bolster its warmist leanings…

    In conjunction with sea level rise caused by global warming, lunar nodal precession is predicted to contribute to a rapid rise in the frequency of coastal flooding throughout the 2030s.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_node#Effect_on_tides

  2. Gamecock says:

    Cirrusly, what do you expect the NASA Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii to say?

    If people believe it, they can move inland.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Has Arctic summer sea ice vanished yet? As usual, alarmist predictions have failed miserably.

  4. Curious George says:

    Avoid a usual mistake – this is NOT a prediction. It is a projection. Meaning that authors don’t really believe it.

  5. JB says:

    “if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot under water.”

    There are bigger fish in business parking lots right now. Everybody is just trying to get through the present pervasive economic collapse.

  6. oldbrew says:

    “Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

    If it sounds like a prediction, it is one.

  7. Stuart Brown says:

    Gamecock, it’s really cirrus! It’s the cumulusative effect that’s important and all the fault of nimbus who don’t want windmills next to their houses!

  8. Scott says:

    “Gamecock, it’s really cirrus! It’s the cumulusative effect that’s important and all the fault of nimbus who don’t want windmills next to their houses!”

    Is all this wordplay a mammatusfestation of asperatusgers syndrome perhaps?

  9. tom0mason says:

    By 2030? Sound like a plan is needed to counter this rot …
    It is not about time real scientists took out wagers (e.g. $1000 apiece minimum) with these numb-nut fools and used the accrued cash to help finance real research.

  10. stpaulchuck says:

    where’s this “rapidly increasing” supposed to pop up from?? must be more of that IPCC magical sciencey stuff

  11. Graeme No.3 says:

    “What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull—the main cause of Earth’s tides—will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.”
    And what would happen if the sea levels don’t rise?
    There is a tide gauge in Sydney (on a continent with stable geology) which shows sea level rise only with minor fluctuations. Even the NOAA figures show a rise of 0.65 m.m. per year, so over 100 years that is a rise of 2.5 inches, and over the next 14 years any city built less than 0.5 of inch above sea level could expect flooding.

    For lots of details (old photos etc.) see
    Here — https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sea-levels-sydney.pdf

  12. Graeme No.3 says:

    Ouch.
    Sorry. Forget to put … in front of link.

    ….https://saltbushclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/sea-levels-sydney.pdf

    [mod] amended

  13. chickenhawk says:

    If only the great scientific minds could come together…..

    Imagine building some kind of structure that could impede the rising ocean waters…if only there was enough time, so sad for us humans.

    [reply] climate obsessives like Gore and Obama paid millions for ocean-front properties

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    The steep part of the 6000 year lunisolar cycle is alarming (far more so than any CO2 narrative). However, the “rules based order” on the C[ENSO]Rship is “don’t speak”, no. doubt.

    May peace and tranquility dominate hearts and minds everywhere.

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    One of the things I’ve wondered every day since my first awakening on the C[ENSO]Rship (while taking great care to express less than 0.1% of my true thoughts) :

    Suppose that magically all cities on Earth with populations greater than 250,000 suddenly had populations of exactly 250,000. Would sensible discussion of geophysical phenomena (including climate) then be permitted?

    It could be a blissful experience, assuming everyone had a fjord in their front yard and a mountain in the back. Delightfully respectful natural discourse might well blossom.

    In the sharpest possible contrast, our world has been divided for easy conquer by those who wish only for a larger earthly population to more deeply enslave.

    Such a problem can be solved with neither violence nor discourse, but of course it can be solved.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Joe Bastardi offers a new hurricane prediction idea
    July 9th, 2021

    Think of your favorite Man-Made Global Warming Scientist.

    Now, what if that person put out research that had 20 Major hurricane hits preceded by a cold May for the eastern US and then a cold December that looked like the Mays.

    Imagine if that scientist reveals this research.

    https://www.cfact.org/2021/07/09/if-only-i-believed-man-was-the-reason/

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