Old-school data suggests hurricanes in the Atlantic are not more frequent than in the past

Posted: July 17, 2021 by oldbrew in climate, data, History, Natural Variation, research, satellites, weather
Tags: ,

Image credit: sanibelrealestateguide.com

Quote: ‘No evidence’. Not more intense either. Reports claiming otherwise were greatly exaggerated or at least ill-informed, it seems (as well as being frequent, and intensely irritating). Climate alarmists will not be amused.
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Researchers affiliated with several institutions in the United States have determined that the increase in the number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic over the past several years is not related to global warming, says The Conversation (via Phys.org).

They suggest instead, in their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, that it is simply reflective of natural variable weather patterns.

Over the past several decades, scientists studying satellite data have found that the number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean has been increasing.

Many in the field have suggested that this is due to the impact of global warming.

A warming ocean, they note would naturally lead to more active atmospheric activity. The problem with such thinking, the researchers from this new effort note, is that satellite data only goes back to 1972.

Prior to that date, data on hurricane frequency tended to come from eyewitness accounts, which left out many hurricanes that never touched land. In this new study, the researchers went back to the old record books to learn more about the frequency of hurricanes prior to satellites.

The old-time data stretched as far back as 1851 and came courtesy of records kept by workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The workers had collected the data from eyewitnesses across the eastern seaboard, along the Gulf of Mexico, islands in the Atlantic and fishermen venturing out to sea.

The researchers then calculated the ratios of hurricanes that never came ashore in modern times to those that did, and worked backwards using modern data along with math techniques to estimate the number of hurricanes going back to 1860 that were never recorded. They then plotted those numbers on a timeline.

Researchers found no evidence on the timeline of larger than normal numbers of hurricanes forming over the past few decades—instead, it showed that the numbers were on par with prior spikes in the late 1940s and early 1880s.

They also found no evidence indicating that modern hurricanes are any more powerful than those in the past.

Source here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    The Climate Blame Game
    Date: 13/04/21 Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation

    A paper published today shows that attempts to blame extreme weather on human-caused global warming are “overconfident and probably wrong”. The paper, by statistician and philosopher of science Dr William M Briggs, reveals that mainstream attribution science is beset by flaws of reasoning, modelling and data.
    . . .
    “In order to attribute individual weather events to humankind, scientists need a perfect model of the climate. They do not have this. Therefore, claims that we are responsible for any particular weather event are at best overconfident, if not plain wrong.”

    Attribution studies assume that the weather has been getting worse, yet empirical observations do not support this generic assumption.

    Dr Briggs’s paper is entitled The Climate Blame Game: Are we really causing extreme weather (pdf)


    Link to pdf… https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2021/04/Briggs-Climate-Attribution.pdf

  2. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Well, no. Less, if anything.

  3. JB says:

    “Is there [any] thing whereof it may be said, See, this [is] new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.”

    Original adage >5Kya

  4. Graeme No.3 says:

    There has been a big increase in numbers in the Coral sea N.E Australia due to the Bureau of Meteorology naming any stiff wind as a cyclone.
    You know the old adage; the older you get the weaker the wind gets.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Paul Homewood says: July 17, 2021 at 4:37 pm
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    Absolutely. Now even the warmists are backing off this particular bit of climate hysteria, or some of the more sober ones at least.

  6. Phoenix44 says:

    It is extremely unlikely that older data is remotely as comprehensive as modern data. The only question is how many were missed. To pretend otherwise is either complete stupidity or deliberate fraud.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Two things are certain: an Atlantic hurricane season every year, and climate alarmists looking for any excuse to claim ‘it’s worse than we thought’ whenever one makes landfall somewhere.

  8. saighdear says:

    Where’s the Wind today? Monday @Gridwatch 2% wind production only. Last Thursday, Friday and Saturday we’ve had so much wind locally that you couldn’t collect hay to bale( blowing over the fences). the little rain were received a week earlier haasall but dried up.This wind was not forecast nor recorded officially as Local weather. Trees and Crop took a threshing and trashing, almost similar to tropical storm damage in Europe, currently. No Hail or precipitation: just wind