La Niña to emerge in Aug-Oct season, U.S. weather service says

Posted: August 14, 2021 by oldbrew in Analysis, ENSO, Forecasting, Temperature, weather

lanina-winterNo imminent upward pressure on global temperatures resulting from the ENSO phenomenon, judging by the latest analysis. Possibly the opposite, if current trends continue.
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Aug.12 (Reuters) — The La Niña weather pattern could potentially develop during the August-October season, and last through the 2021-22 winter, the U.S. government’s National Weather Service said on Thursday. (Yahoo Finance reporting.)

The La Niña pattern is characterized by unusually low temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is linked to floods and drought.

Meanwhile, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are favoured for the remainder of the northern hemisphere summer, the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

There is about a 60% chance of ENSO neutral conditions for the July-September season, and a 70% chance of La Niña from November through January 2022, the CPC said.

The ENSO weather pattern is marked by average long-term ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall and atmospheric winds.

Full report here.
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More analysis here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    Cool/cold thermosphere persisting. Barely exceeded ‘neutral’ since about 2005.

    Thermosphere climate indexes(2018)

    This paper describes a new solar terrestrial Index with quantitative terrestrial context.
    – – –
    “The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

    When the thermosphere cools, it shrinks, literally decreasing the radius of Earth’s atmosphere.

  2. Chaswarnertoo says:

    The Warmists will claim La Niña is why it’s not getting warmer…

  3. oldbrew says:

    The Warmists will claim La Niña is why it’s not getting warmer…

    But they like to accuse humans when El Niño comes around and it does get warmer.

  4. Phil Salmon says:

    Peru’s anchovy landings are predicted to be the same as last year – at least 5 million tons (that’s a lot of cat-food!)

    Which means a similar La Niña year with continuing strong Peruvian coast upwelling of cold Humboldt nutrient-rich water.

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s refreshing to see an article on climate.

    Since the pandemic broke, talkshop articles devoted a lot of attention (an overboard, sickening amount for some no doubt) to “energy” and so-called “climate policy” (as opposed to climate itself).

    Outlook: For many years we’ve awaited new sites (sites with integrity) to eclipse the fatally compromised American climate blogs (strictly boycotted for enough years now that I’ve lost count). Any developments on that front? e.g. a site with valuable Bill Illis commentary but minus the toxic cast?

  6. Jim says:

    Interesting. Calling the pattern, climate and not a weather pattern. The northern jet is not stationary. The pattern alternates in cycles of varying amplitude. So, good skiing this year?

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