Arctic Ice Hockey Stick August 2021

Posted: August 26, 2021 by oldbrew in sea ice
Tags:

.

It will be interesting to see what, if anything much, happens when solar minimum finally fades and the sunspot numbers pick up.

Science Matters

Arctic2021235 w HS

The graph above shows August daily ice extents for 2021 compared to 14 year averages, and some years of note.

The black line shows during this period on average Arctic ice extents decline ~2M km2 from ~6.8M km2 down to ~4.8M km2.  The Hockey Stick shape refers to the 2021 cyan MASIE line starting ~227k km2 below average but matching average by day 230, and in the last five days produced a surplus of 414k km2.  The Sea Ice Index in orange (SII from NOAA) started with the same deficit and also matched MASIE average day 230, but tracking the downward average since.  2019 and 2020 were well below average at this stage of the summer melt.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming is documented in a post

View original post 250 more words

Comments
  1. oldmanK says:

    The original post has a second figure which is more important; “Post Glacial sea-level rise’. It shows that most of the ice from the glacial millennia has already melted, and what remains are the last ‘dregs’. More worrying is not how much the sea level will rise before the switch to ice formation, but when will the latter event take place.

    There are enough indicators, from throughout the Holocene, that those changes are all abrupt. (And from a heretic perspective, maybe the engineered ape has not yet done its work of returning the locked-up carbon back into the biological cycle). 🙂

  2. oldbrew says:

    Spot the assumption…

    AUGUST 26, 2021

    Artificial intelligence to help predict Arctic sea ice loss
    by British Antarctic Survey

    ‘Published this week in the journal Nature Communications, an international team of researchers led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and The Alan Turing Institute describe how the AI system, IceNet, addresses the challenge of producing accurate Arctic sea ice forecasts for the season ahead—something that has eluded scientists for decades.’

    https://phys.org/news/2021-08-artificial-intelligence-arctic-sea-ice.html

    ‘something that has eluded scientists for decades.’ — during which they have repeatedly touted its imminent disappearance within a summer or two, or three…

  3. Gamecock says:

    33 degrees and windy at Taloyoak Airport. London elites want it even colder for them.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    “It will be interesting to see what, if anything much, happens when solar minimum finally fades and the sunspot numbers pick up.”

    When I see such suggestions recurring I find them curious (humorously so) and interpret them as intended to be tongue-in-cheek.

    There’s higher-frequency — interannual — mixing. It pokes through the central limit (decadal-centennial timescale) sea surface record in both directions (fleeting excursions).

    The energy involved (which shapes and drives the mixing) has to balance in aggregate globally — across space (geography) and material phase changes.

    Commentators were trained to pretend otherwise at other blogs.
    Locally the washout-timescale is annual. Globally it’s interannual.

    Paul Pukite is the only one who worked publicly on the interannual variations so far as I know.

    Aggregate longer-term constraints have already been noted, so with sufficient observations technicians (already comfortably employed by governments) can finish the detail-work (doesn’t affect anything about longer-term aggregates, something few have been quick enough to appreciate and respect).

    Given his ability to be more serious about some of the higher-frequency lunisolar combinations I’ve always suspected Pukite’s apparent refusal to deal with decadal-centennial timescales more sensibly derived from some overriding political, religious, and/or whatever other convictions (stuff I simply choose to respect with neither probing nor debate in the neighborly spirit of freedom).

    There should be some sensible folks at least cognizant of the 6000 (in 14C) and 7200 year (in IRD) cycles (in central limit). They look like extremely dangerous (natural) climate patterns so in that sense ignoring them does not appear sensible. However:

    I suspect the records (especially IRD) are being seriously misinterpreted.

    There’s a stubborn, incorrect (I would even say nasty) habit of pretending the series are strictly temporal series, as if none of the following exist: spatial dimensions, circulation (mixing), heterogeneity, material phase-change, physical aliasing (assured by known combinations of seasonal circulatory topology and nonlinearity but ever-so curiously permanently ignored).

    Toxic political imaginations (of presumptive climate masters directing obedient puppet misinterpretation) contaminated sensible discourse in the past. Then we tried some other methods to see if they could awaken a more sensible discourse. More sensible discourse was not the response.

    The calibration to solar cycle deceleration is not absolute. It varies by an order of magnitude. The obvious reason is ice.

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review

    The comment about Milankovitch should be deleted from the graph.

  6. Gamecock says:

    Sorry to be a broken record, but . . . Arctic sea ice isn’t good, it’s bad. Wailing and gnashing of teeth because things aren’t worse.

  7. Phil Salmon says:

    Are we at minimum already for Arctic sea ice??

  8. oldmanK says:

    It rained in the arctic. What is the net effect?

    Water vapour has higher enthalpy, but heat transfer to ice by conduction from vapour is quite low. Water has a lower enthalpy but transfer is more effective. So if conditions are changing what is the net effect?

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    UNbelieve? Able Naivety, BOTH Statistical and Physical

    West turn -30C-authorIT: Please key Eur. PRairs more carefully to protect “can aid UN” innocents from winter “how? $sing” crisis “CO[$wor11DDeepend$UN US)]” — JohhNYhhear10=Φ(22)

    suggestion for backyard mechanics out in the country$ID:

    in a standard-transmission vehicle, record engine revs & vehicle speed under a variety of (carefully noted) circumstances.

    Make graphs for idle, 1st gear, 2nd gear, …. , 5th gear, …up&downhill, windin’, flat, etc.

    SAM=SouthernAnnularMode; NAM=NorthernAnnularMode
    Interpret sensibly. Sort and classify (in 1814…. Johnny Horton)
    Remember IT$SAM? WHO$not haveUN a ban[N/A][N/A]in f11eeIT$NAM??

  10. oldbrew says:

    More Sea Ice On Earth Than 1990 And 1995
    Posted on August 27, 2021 by tonyheller

    The extent of sea ice on earth today is higher than 1990 and 1995, when the first two IPCC reports were published forecasting the demise of polar sea ice.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2021/08/more-sea-ice-on-earth-than-1990-and-1995/

    But our models say… 🥱

  11. oldbrew says:

    4-5 years since last El Nino…

  12. oldmanK says:

    From above twitter link quote “The instrument is unable to see through clouds, however. A statistical method is therefore used to provide the missing data. The edge of the ice is shown as a black contour line. It is defined by a sea ice concentration of 15%, i.e. 15% of the surface is covered by ice.”
    Is that new ice (volume) or ‘ice-slump’ (meaning the spread of faster melt? (call me the heretic skeptic).

    PV above says
    “There should be some sensible folks at least cognizant of the 6000 (in 14C) and 7200 year (in IRD) cycles (in central limit). They look like extremely dangerous (natural) climate patterns so in that sense ignoring them does not appear sensible. However:
    I suspect the records (especially IRD) are being seriously misinterpreted.”

    Too cryptic, but 7200yr in IRD I sense the 7200BP IRD abrupt swing. That date is beginning to appear elsewhere too, but it is the later ~5200BP identical abrupt swing that is now appearing in many quarters. (see https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/1587/2015/cp-11-1587-2015.pdf. fig 4) . Particular about the latter date is tectonic events; so likely is the earlier but corr info still scarce.

    Above fig 4 in ‘C’ C/N ratio are the spikes, particularly at 5500BP and 4200BP. 5500BP has abrupt freezing at higher latitudes, but ice free areas at equatorial Quelccaya, the latter freezing over at 4200BP. Now both sites have been releasing their frozen treasures (Otzi at hi-lat; veg-matter equat Lonnie T). Note the opposite alternate temp swings.

    Dates; 7200, ~6200, 5200, 4200, consecutive approx Eddy cycle roots.

  13. oldbrew says:

    oldmanK – you can’t switch from cycle lengths to dates using the same numbers?

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review

    1. classic arctic ocean refresher

    2. 6000 year (as I’ve indicated before: this one worries me far more than CO2)

    putting 2 graphs (ones immediately above & below) side-by-side for oldmank again, this time with suggestion to focus on shared patterns (and general puzzle organization)

    3. 7200 year (on average, inviting more careful attention to deviations)

    Folks talented with modular forms (ones not preconditioned by propaganda to fail) might figure out the pattern in deviations-from-average-period in a single sitting.

    I had always left timescales above decadal-centennial to others. I realized in early 2020 that something was seriously wrong (weather deception or ignorance, dark either way). I explored casually with steady progress and 3 key leaps spaced ~6 months apart.

    Hindsight: Folks posing as “experts” at other venues a decade ago severely misled us. My mind remains open to the possibility that they lie strategically the 1% of the time when it matters most while deliberately managing to appear reliable 99% of the time.

    It now occurs to me that some of the people appearing aligned with those suspicion-arousing folks are not actually aligned with them.

    Let us pray to God (the real God, not nasty puppet-masters) for wisdom to solve puzzles peacefully in good health, with sufficient wealth to counter inequality.

    I probably won’t have time to give 6000 & 7200 the painstakingly-careful diagnostic attention they deserve. I already have a list 70 lifetimes long (might have been 1 lifetime long with better western math and computer science education).

    White-CO[II]air for caste system blue IT:
    378 comments stopped mysteriously without finishin’ off 11 more insight$

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Far more terrifying than CO2 (this is an extreme nightmare ABout Why’$air davo$ financial tyranny) :

    Is the whole alarmist strategy based robustly on 6000 year trade secrets? (I suspect it is.)
    Worse: Do they recognize natural danger? (Not only do they, but can they? will they?)
    “They” are 2 camps: puppet masters and puppets (including innocent victims we love & support, not scold), those of us hoping and praying for peace, tranquil IT, and unity realize.

    Split the camp:
    Anyone attacking women and children is working for the enemy. A suggestion I received from a supremely wise source: write up some of my key findings in a short picture-book designed to absolutely delight children about the magic and beauty of nature and math. That idea resonates (deeply) and I could certainly do it under truly supportive circumstances.

    _
    typo alert: see variables with 7200 central limit on Rial’s graph (not IRD as suggested in typo)

  16. oldmanK says:

    oldbrew says “oldmanK – you can’t switch from cycle lengths to dates using the same numbers?”

    Not sure what is meant. Dates were sought first – in the attempt to place events in chronological perspective. One appeared early 3195bce (5200BP). But dates may shift either side depending on source and its own dating from secondary source. 3195bce quite precise and from reliable source (tree-rings); backed by C14. That then appeared as a major swing in graphs -see PV graph 2 IRD. This date comes up in many sources (archaeo, legend Hindu Maya Egyptian; not precise but linked to major global destruction). The large swing in IRD reflects more a tectonic upheaval; plus a change in horizon sunrise point – the/my first enigma.
    I needed an earlier one, and sure enough it is there at ~5200bce (7200BP)

    There were changes in between. Polar/Equatorial temp anomaly + Tree-rings + Dodwell provided one; for which I had the evidence. That was 2345bce; the now famous 4K2 event. Tree rings provided -and all indicatively confirmed by C14- an earlier 4375bce. Plus more. They showed up as spikes in C/N ratio (Iceland ice cap)

    That the 980 Eddy cycle (as per the last two millennia, tks to a Javier https://judithcurry.com/2018/06/28/nature-unbound-ix-21st-century-climate-change/ ) fitted the dates came as a surprise. Not precise on the dot, but clearly clocked.

    Dates are important in that they correspond to events as well as the timescales of proxies. 6150bce is one root (doggerbank sinking), 1680ce is mid LIA; total 7830 for eight cycles >> ~979yrs.

    Eddy peaks are also times of change. One is 3550bce; it has left its trail almost everywhere. Beyond the Younger Dryas to me is mostly unknown region.

  17. Phil Salmon says:

    Arctic sea ice extent is still as of today larger than in the same date in the previous four years:

    http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    Double-checked: 7.2ka in Rial’s graphs is conclusive.
    This is a simple function of lunar cycles and earth’s orbit. It’s not mysterious.

    For anyone who already understands Chandler & QBO: this is just a simple extension (hierarchical) by analogy — i.e. simple aliasing of circulatory topology. I suspect agencies like the US Dept. of Commerce have known details (perhaps deep details) for many decades. If they have not, that also arouses suspicion and curiosity, but whichever way:

    A large team of competent folks should review everything on the subject, putting politics aside.
    The possibility of absolutely fundamental record misinterpretation needs careful examination.
    Correct interpretations may remove previously-formidable barriers to understanding nature.

    It’s a large set of literature full of narratives, some of which have been repeated so many times that assumptions have blurred into “facts”. The review has to be done very carefully. I do not presently have the level of freedom that would permit such a careful examination, nor do I expect to have such freedom anytime soon. In a just and equitable world it would be (one of very many) delightful project(s) to pursue.

    Someone sensible and able to attract substantial investment in civilized peace, please plan for several decades of stable, secure funding for a good team. For comparison to put this in due perspective: billions have been wasted on computer modeling based on false assumptions. Better balance is feasible.

  19. oldmanK says:

    Paul Vaughan says: August 31, 2021 at 7:08 pm
    “Double-checked: 7.2ka in Rial’s graphs is conclusive.
    This is a simple function of lunar cycles and earth’s orbit. It’s not mysterious.”

    The 7k2yr (and the 5k2yr BP) I suspect are the ones referred to by:
    The Akkadians “—planned the flood on the darkest night when there is no moon”
    The Hindus “–when the moon and the sun are together–” and associated with calamity.

    Also other conditions prevail, such as the planets congregating together (Hindu).

  20. oldbrew says:

    Solar Activity Variations for the Last Millennia.
    Will the Next Long-Period Solar Minimum be Formed?
    B. P. Komitov* and V. I. Kaftan** (2003)

    An analysis of obtained results has indicated that it is highly probable that the next long-period minimum of solar activity, which will possibly be not so deep as the Maunder and Spoerer minimums, will be formed in the 21st century.

    Click to access Solar-Activity-Variations-for-the-Last-MillenniaWill-the-Next-Long-Period-Solar-Minimum-be-Formed.pdf

    See Figure 7 – includes prediction.

    Last paragraph of the Kaftan paper:
    It is quite possible that the onset of a long-period solar minimum can result in unexpected (from the present-day viewpoint) climatic changes, namely, in a global cooling. Damon and Sonett [1991] indicated that all minimums of the 200-year solar cycle are usually accompanied by a decrease in the average temperature of the Earth by about 1°C. If such a climatic scenario actually takes place, this will be a forcible argument for a heliogeophysical theory of climate changes. Such a phenomenon would force out a theory of anthropogenic greenhouse effect in the background.
    — Written in 2002.

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    Again: Two of the last three 6000-year 14C cycles had a single sharp peak (~1ka wide) followed by 3 or 4 thousand years of contrast. The other had a broader double-hump. LIA does not look like it.

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Lunar cycles can be reconstructed from proxy records.

  23. oldbrew says:

    Komitov et al (2004) says:

    The Solar Activity during the Holocene:
    Amplitude Variations of the Quasy-century
    and Quasi-two-century Solar Cycles

    About 5000–5500 BC a serious change in the regime of large-scale behaviour of solar
    activity has occurred. It is characterized by the establishment of the present structure
    of the 2200–2500-year cycle as well as by amplitude modulation effects of the same one
    over the shorter submillenial and quasycenturial solar cycles. The amplitude modulation
    effects of quasybimillenial and quasymillenial cycles over the shorter solar cycles is a very
    important feature of large-scale variations of solar activity. It is necessary to account for
    it if we would make a more precise solar activity forecasting model for time intervals in
    the range of few decades or more.

    Link to pdf here — https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/proceedings-of-the-international-astronomical-union/article/solar-activity-during-the-holocene-amplitude-variations-of-the-quasycentury-and-quasitwocentury-solar-cycles/593C6D298E32B5D13777070AEE6B5CEC#

  24. oldbrew says:

  25. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s link part quote “About 5000–5500 BC a serious change in the regime of large-scale behaviour of solar activity has occurred.”

    That is the ~5200bce (7k2 BP) event. Similar to the 3k2bce event as both are seen in the IRD record, but far worse in effect. Both involve cataclysmic tectonic change in the Med.

    The proxy is the C14, but looking at IntCal13/20 it is guided by tree-ring for both dating and effect/C14 value (but I may have got that wrong, so do check it out). From megalithic calendars there was a change at 5500BP (3550bce) – an obliquity change. IntCal13 shows a series -3-sharp ratcheting between 5500 and ~5150 BP. I would question if the effect was solar, or from earth dynamic effects on trees.

    IntCal13 shows a similar effect on C14 in the region of 5100 to 5500bce, but the ratcheting is less than the later 3200bce.

  26. Paul Vaughan says:

    Deeply Fundamental Misinterpretation of Records

    Bye!CO[SST] ONmonitoringUS-C11i.e.METblogs$lifts$nowhere($severe)misinterpretation$ABound$
    e.g. falsely assuming geophysical data = “solar activity”
    (why$air davo$ prescribe$sure mi$interpret “ace$UN”)

    quasiBUYmillenial recall? I advised TB of dominance on recent record of longer cycles over shorter cycles ($0Beware$UNwarrantextrapoPA11aceUNp[owe]undIT$shoretermEMorrery?)…

    Google search for “6000 year cycle” points at this “fearlessly free” speech:

    DO EU no. well eur. math-fram eur. myth? Sum few will no doubt.
    The video highlights a recent journal article:

    Quantitative impact of astronomical and sun-related cycles on Pleistocene climate system from Antarctica records

    Suggestions:
    1. Take a look at section 3.4 (on 6000).
    2. Note the absence of clarity about 3.6ka (1/2 of 7200, which I outlined in detail on the most recent Scafetta thread).

  27. Paul Vaughan says:

    Note that although the author (see last comment) cites a Rial paper, this classic Rial summary is (curiously) not cited.

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    for classic Rial summary (& 6000 year cycle in 14C (davo$write$ fear holy wood)) — see:
    August 28, 2021 at 7:00 pm

    _

    Study carefully Viaggi (2021) figure 6a — TOP LEFT corner, p.12 :
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666033421000162#fig6

    Stat 1: know won “mode dull” assume[shh!]UN.

    DO!no.whatCO[II]D-sea? hhi!11airUS$ informal test (he$inrichDO! bill:owe$eveUN)

  29. oldbrew says:

    Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently EXCEEDING the 1981-2010 Average by 233,000 km2, and GROWING!
    AUGUST 30, 2020

    https://electroverse.net/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-is-currently-233000-km2-above-the-1981-2010-average/

  30. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s link: https://i1.wp.com/electroverse.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/GSM-and-Sunspots.png?ssl=1

    It is not an Eddy minimum, that is ~600 yrs in the future, and 980 yrs from the Maunder min/LIA. One can follow those changes back more that 6000 yrs. We near an Eddy peak, a civilisation peak, same as before. But also a time of great change. In 3550bce the swing was very abrupt.

    An earlier Eddy minimum was near 700CE, about 980 yrs before LIA. The peak was in between, delayed some. See fig 5 here http://www.pereplet.ru/gorm/atext/Newton1.htm (cannot find actual pdf but this is same)

    Solar effects, or Earth dynamics?

  31. oldmanK says:

    Something else : https://archaeologynewsnetwork.blogspot.com/2021/09/new-evidence-supports-idea-that.html

    ” abandoned abruptly between 2,000-2,200 years ago”. Round about an Eddy peak.

    From another perspective (tv series walking thru history) West Kennet long barrow bodies date to 3600bce (or 3550bce?), near another Eddy peak. The site is said to have changed function at 2500bce (2345bce Eddy min).

    Some/frequent evidence of ancient mass burials seem to focus round those dates. 3550bce is also the Garth tsunami date.

  32. Paul Vaughan says:

    NO. R-way Peace with My.tee$Sing-along?

    US “know no.”: halve UN a “7200 year ban” N/A N/A (rep public Can.)

    “hey, hey, hey, ‘good buy’ “ ?
    Mount Rial Can. Aid UN$SSTrue “DO!”

    How D “DO” D press ton$ET-up physic Cal. APparrot USmatter$
    compare alongGore wave$pacing reeferant$pointwon “too refreshing” Arctic Ocean ~70kBP

    All weave left: symbolic truth …and no. thing bot IT.

  33. Paul Vaughan says:

    Keplerian Key: 240 (E8)

    6000 & 7200 = “package deal”
    OB, Phil Salmon, & others: Check slip(6000,735) & slip(6000,1470).
    Hook up with terrestrial tropical year.
    Tune the entire record …and DO!n’t misinterpret.

  34. Paul Vaughan says:

    “…for something pure and true” — Garbage “#1 Crush”

    boldly “disappearing 6000” wizard$will note: the grey “yes” line$

  35. oldbrew says:

    Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago
    Date: October 20, 2008
    Source: Geological Survey of Norway

    Summary:
    Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/10/081020095850.htm

  36. Paul Vaughan says:

    alignment of sets of lunar slip cycles:

    7200 accommodates both 400,1200 and 600,1800 groups, plus all crosses (beat, axial, harmean)
    (derivations already noted on most recent Scafetta thread)

  37. Paul Vaughan says:

    Deeply fundamental learning about observed deformation from Keplerian elements (requires a multidisciplinary team effort) again looks overdue.

  38. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew post, re quote part ” a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland”.

    The dates are important markers, but one needs be careful on interpretation.

    Example: From another discussion relating to a hoard of coins latest dating to 363CE and likely lost due to the Crete earthquake in 365CE, Wiki says “The earthquake is thought to be responsible for an uplift of nine metres (30 feet) of the island of Crete”.

    CE365 is just past an Eddy peak.

  39. Paul Vaughan says:

    10Be: 2318a
    14C: 2400a

    The former is very-nearly in resonance with lunar cycle slip on Earth’s OBSERVED sidereal orbital period.

    Myth or math?

    _
    answering TB about graph 2 comments above: those are not calendar dates but years from initially-perfect alignment

    _
    Great article Phil:
    https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2020/08/11/flicker-an-explanation-for-the-d-o-events-rapid-climate-fluctuations-of-the-last-glacial-period/

    Circulation rate has something to do with pumping rate? NO. DOUBT !!

  40. Paul Vaughan says:

    Severe misinterpretation of the big swings on Rial’s graph may explain more than many realize.

    36750 = slip(6000,735)
    73500 = slip(6000,1470)

    Perhaps with God’s help we can ensure peace and security for fearful residents of the northern hemisphere.

  41. oldmanK says:

    Paul Vaughan says: September 7, 2021 at 7:27 am

    10Be: 2318a
    14C: 2400a

    Tree-rings, early on, indicated a major disturbance at 2345bce, and on C14 based on tree-rings indicates fluctuations/ratcheting between 2350 – 2550bce. That started something, because in the next 200yrs we see the widespread collapse of civilisations; the 4k2 event.

    But also. That was the date arrived at by Dodwell, and there is a megalithic calendar (that is still fully functional) that proves Dodwell correct, plus more. The date is also an Eddy minimum.

  42. tallbloke says:

    Paul. 2318 is Scafettas main period here.
    https://wp.me/pi4G5-7yl
    It’s also 12x Scott McIntosh’s 193yr solar magnetic period.

  43. Paul Vaughan says:

    what went wrong with climate etc. in 2020 hindsight

    “CO[mmm] moon IC ace shown brake D-own, IT’$sol wise the same
    Have UN N/A nerve US break Dawn…”
    led zeppelin

    After several years of strict boycott, I may review:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=bill%20illis
    https://judithcurry.com/?s=nature+unbound

    TB: Please see tail end of last Scafetta thread, including review of 2318 link to Heegner numbers (“cherry on top” of “number salad” in terms introduced by oldmanK).

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/nicola-scafetta-jupiters-orbital-eccentricity-may-drive-60yr-and-millennial-climate-cycles/comment-page-2/#comment-171233
    (~ up & down from there)

    modular differentiation
    Keplerian elements vs. (systematically-deformed) fits

  44. Paul Vaughan says:

    misinterpretations

    Looking back with earned hindsight,
    no distinction between 2400 & 2318, no mention of 6000 (which certainly is not sinusoidal), & no mention of “lunisolar”:

    Click to access aa27295-15.pdf

  45. tallbloke says:

    Paul, I can’t understand your output. I really hope you decide to write some stuff in plain language at some point which is accessible to me.

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    TO GT:HR $7200 (Review & $Send Thanks$in Peace)

    DO!scent lie CO[tool] :

    Everyone knows only idiots and deep$state agents provateurs attend PR T(est)$SF[sic]all[1%]lie.

    Why “DO!” numbers CO[mmm] with miss sages?
    We’11 sea EU no. what? IT means$too B within DO.

    6000 weighs$ bot no. one$CO[II]D-think$thank?
    5.99685290323073 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0745030006844627)

    _
    a nom a list ic

    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)

    18.5964370693548 = beat(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)
    8.85109350901809 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748026830551271)

    16.8899949413115 = beat(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)
    5.99685290323073 = axial(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)
    184.063510192393 = slip(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)

    600.241396282931 = slip(184.063510192393,5.99685290323073)
    1800.72418884878 = slip(184.063510192393,16.8899949413115)

    _
    side(el mann 1992 keep lore yuan mean or[well]bot’tell’em’UN$)real

    0.0748026329881375 = axial(1.00001743371442,0.0808503463381246)

    18.5995319875902 = beat(0.0748026329881375,0.0745030006844627)
    8.85039257541183 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748026329881375)

    5.99685290323073 = axial(18.5995319875902,8.85039257541183)
    16.8848913580487 = beat(18.5995319875902,8.85039257541183)
    183.158541510238 = slip(18.5995319875902,8.85039257541183)

    400.297181344069 = slip(183.158541510238,5.99685290323073)
    1200.8915440322 = slip(183.158541510238,16.8848913580487)

    _
    all(beat,axial,harmean)crosses
    sort of DCreasin’ “C11aim ETsea.” 7200 / IT =$what ?

    3605.12964776033 = beat(1800.72418884878,1200.8915440322)
    1800.72418884878
    1440.87361205772 = harmean(1800.72418884878,1200.8915440322)
    1201.70988258678 = beat(600.241396282931,400.297181344069)
    1200.8915440322
    1200.07431926105 = beat(1200.8915440322,600.241396282931)
    900.3620944244 = beat(1800.72418884878,600.241396282931)
    900.362094424395 = harmean(1800.72418884878,600.241396282931)
    800.412674755851 = harmean(1200.8915440322,600.241396282931)
    720.436806028858 = axial(1800.72418884878,1200.8915440322)
    654.991202662512 = harmean(1800.72418884878,400.297181344069)
    600.445772016105 = beat(1200.8915440322,400.297181344069)
    600.445772016103 = harmean(1200.8915440322,400.297181344069)
    600.241396282931
    514.717877698332 = beat(1800.72418884878,400.297181344069)
    480.291204019242 = harmean(600.241396282931,400.297181344069)
    450.181047212197 = axial(1800.72418884878,600.241396282931)
    400.297181344069
    400.206337377926 = axial(1200.8915440322,600.241396282931)
    327.495601331256 = axial(1800.72418884878,400.297181344069)
    300.222886008051 = axial(1200.8915440322,400.297181344069)
    240.145602009621 = axial(600.241396282931,400.297181344069)

    “UN dr.CO[V]air of the knight” — R-o[r] w[e]l[l] UN’$SSTunes

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/nicola-scafetta-jupiters-orbital-eccentricity-may-drive-60yr-and-millennial-climate-cycles/comment-page-1/#comment-165115

    “IT$sol.weighs$this$aim.” — Led Zeppelin ‘Communication Breakdown’

    IN CLUE SAVE A.D. VI(as in 6)$OOORIally too(as in also)”global citizens”:
    Blue collar rural families aren’t the devil, $0 TO GT HR why DO$msm$seem to depict them as$such?? IT$ amiss tory…

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/nicola-scafetta-jupiters-orbital-eccentricity-may-drive-60yr-and-millennial-climate-cycles/comment-page-1/#comment-165459

    To protect lovable innocents we SSTand up to bad bull lies TO GT HR no. matter there ace.

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/nicola-scafetta-jupiters-orbital-eccentricity-may-drive-60yr-and-millennial-climate-cycles/comment-page-1/#comment-165475

    DO!n’t fall owe deep$state agents$ provocateurs$ WHO-bait good people into bad B-hive[UNo.ban[N/A]N/A?]year.

    Peace. Love.
    Tranquil IT.

    WHO attends$ PR Test?
    AB$salute lie? NO won.

    “Fear the medi a” range DO!too look:

    Supposed “far right” stayed home, wore flowers, and gave peace signs$in love like hippies, ignorin’D-bait$sov.agentshome11undeep$state provacateurs.

    Weave11earned: so few can tell the DO!fear rants$sov. D-bait UN D-air-mined dawn US. (DT is bot buy “go bull!” citizens$aiming too undermind “naive country” folkUS$??…)

    CO[V]art lie D-signed TO CO[$] global how “$wing set” buck$2037know11edge.
    Bid$4UNuff!4Dable “plaid peep hill” too not attend PR Test.

    Mix myth with sol ID math to save the world from CO[mu]nest-tie: run NY.
    “the world deep ends$ ON-US” — JohnNYhear10:Bis$mark

    EUrallies bcon usless “physic ally”.
    Professional soldiers — not IDyet?PRtoss drs. — mannage “go Bill!” peace (sov.My.CRowes$often).

    Only God (not D-evil “US puppet” mass$’stir Rover’$ease) nos. how$too manage right dove visions to peacefully ensure global security.

    11each11etUSweather TO GT HR 7200 PR Test$ peacefully.

  47. Paul Vaughan says:

    TB: detailed calculations are stuck in the filter (along with commentary symbolizing for innumerate parties the communication hazards of our times).

    Some down-to-earth discussion with sensible folks is — and has always been — welcome.

  48. Paul Vaughan says:

    tried out different web-browser software, but too many comment-submission issues so switched back
    _
    There’s quite an involved story that can be told about this (see calculations 2 comments above (was stuck in filter at time this comment submitted) and graph several comments above).

    Remember ERSST EOF way back? That cracked the code of the longer modes.
    96 was the toughest mode to crack, but with hindsight it was really simple and obvious. It ties lunar draconic, QBO, and terrestrial tropical year to J & S Keplerian. The fit is tightest for 365.24219 days (a value halfway between Meeus & Seidelmann).

    important to not misinterpret this (but easy to misinterpret for those who haven’t independently done the homework) :

    Lunisolar ~= Jovian ~√2 slip cycle hierarchy up to level below Halstatt (why simple harmonic model not based on orbital periods mimics well up to ~1000).

    “what so proudly we…” — star spangled banner

    Halstatt level’s D-light (fully informative “country folk goalpost”). (Yet) Another near-resonance:

    0.0748026273559106 = axial(1.00001642710472,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5998802114857 = beat(0.0748026273559106,0.0745030006844627)
    8.85031373160104 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748026273559106)
    16.8843174290344 = beat(18.5998802114857,8.85031373160104)
    5.99685290323073 = axial(18.5998802114857,8.85031373160104)
    183.057294577131 = slip(18.5998802114857,8.85031373160104)

    385.838860664188 = slip(183.057294577131,5.99685290323073)
    1157.51658199256 = slip(183.057294577131,16.8843174290344)
    2315.03316398513 = 2 * 1157.51658199256

    muSSTory “snow done” “mmmark what?” RI ally “in green” 11andmark IT$no. MI{SCD,RI}

    2.36966707303043 = slip(0.999978618515597,0.0745030006844627)
    9.09435825445792 = slip(2.36966707303043,0.499989309257799)
    96.182947088947 = slip(9.09435825445792,0.999978618515597)

    61.0464822565173 = slip(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    835.546575435631 = slip(61.0464822565173,19.8650360864628)
    16.5767613988929 = axial(835.546575435631,16.9122914926352)
    4.14419034972324 = axial(208.886643858908,8.4561457463176/2)
    96.1829470900285 = slip(19.8650360864628,4.14419034972324)

    We can discuss lunisolar & solar TOGETHER.
    (more insights arose in the last few weeks than in the last decade)

  49. Paul Vaughan says:

    CO[T(00)II] B?ET$can know dough

    Moon$stirUS bets$rushUN bull in china $shh!op ABout “won” perspective.
    IT has likely BComm.comm.ON buy ignoreUN 6000 clues$:

    Monster US “Major IT” may B-bet (with no. D-bait) locked “ON 6000” (NOsinUS$0id) 4thousand$sov. years, with OB$serve ace shh!UN-based “extra poll” ace-yuan 980 + 2400 also buoyin[‘side-why$]CO[N]fedUN$.

    Mix myth with math.
    “So few” can know.

  50. Paul Vaughan says:

    ByeDon hideUNaway UN IT inequality

    Taking a time-managed tour of Javier’s “Nature Unbound” at Climate Etc. (after strictly boycotting CE & WUWT for several years with supremely-good reason) I notice (in 2 of the articles) his enthusiasm for this:

    Berger & von Rad (2002). Decadal to millennial cyclicity in varves and turbidites from the Arabian Sea: hypothesis of tidal origin.

    That article is paywalled for an EXCLUSIVE (not inclusive) audience Mr. Buydon, weather democratic or not I can note with my wish to be included in $schemes weather yours or whoever’s with no interest in toeing Any party lines weather left, right, or whatever.

    Javier outlined their derivation of 366, thus exposing inclination to accept and celebrate “lunisolar” even when the spotlight’s cast on transparently tweaked lunisolar parameters. (I naively fell for something similarly ridiculous from Rahmsdorf when I was an inexperienced newbie.)

    I may address the B&vR (2002) model-tweak below in a separate comment, but first:

    tropical review
    0.0748024157783867 = axial(0.999978614647502,0.0808503463381246)
    18.6129709123853 = beat(0.0748024157783867,0.0745030006844627)
    8.84735293159855 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748024157783867)
    179.333323110834 = slip(18.6129709123853,8.84735293159855)
    1879.26478947996 = slip(179.333323110834,5.99685290323073)
    491.132481334807 = slip(179.333323110834,16.8627856518082)

    I demonstrated right under one of TB’s comments (Scafetta thread) how that confounds tightly with J & S Keplerian slip cycles (stuff already well-known in$sum exclusive circles$no.[-www]doubt).

    We’re waiting for a government or university employee to present the unified summary, as is appropriate since they are adequately paid formal communicators.

    Acknowledging nonlinear (including discretely topological) physical aliasing is an important step in climate discussion (indicating reliably who possibly can vs. certainly can’t be trusted to develop sensible perspective). Paul Pukite appears to be one of very few who duly & laudably appreciate physical aliasing. The shortage is a monstrous impediment to sensible climate discourse (presume ably-DCsigned thus buy-deep port mint$sov. comm. mer$).

    What would climates (naturally) do without humans?

    Climate exploration is (quite naturally) a big team effort. I applaud Javier for taking interest in nature and sharing graphs of nature in a series.

    I have to note that the overstrained solo attempt at comprehensive overview curiously missed some of the biggest of the biggest things. 3 examples:

    1. suspiciously ignored: near-equator precipitation records tied cleanly to precession (arouses tremendous suspicion that this was omitted from a summary clearly arranged to appear comprehensive).

    2. suspiciously ignored: 100ka equatorial SST records (may be under the spell of Muller’s suspiciously aggressive (and reprehensible given that he’s posing as an authority figure) campaign to suppress respect for clear observations with expert inability (whether real or feigned) to physically theorize).

    3. Javier’s grasp of modular forms & topological entrainment appears to be an absent basis for countless “logical” assertions. Importantly, Javier does NOT appear clued in (at a11) to Jose Rial’s KEY integration (“takin’ me hire than I’ve ever bin before” Key s(22a) hi!DO!wei…)

    There are a lot of articles in the “Nature Unbound” series. I reviewed them all yesterday. The only further comment I may have arising from the review is about “366 year lunisolar MODEL-FUDGE”.

  51. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review: 96

    So simple to explain (even the first time).

    A gold standard test of integrity which has now been available for 5 years.

    Sensible folks everywhere: Let us pray to God for deep wisdom about how to peacefully deal with those who do not, will not, or cannot quickly acknowledge something so simple and obvious.

  52. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review: EOF1234 Map

    1: RI
    2: ENSO
    3: 96
    4: SCD

    “Lest we forget.”
    “In God we trust.”

  53. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Fundamentally Key”
    note$cavemann366 to comm.UN IT members:

    Based on learning about 7200 & 73500 bundles I see a(nother) mainstream aggregation criteria void (an important one) …but what are the odds of getting the needed funding for a worthwhile project to help society and civilization organize for white-&-blue CO[II]air peace threw safe, secure, long-term financial equality …too help “free US” from relentlessly savage political hassle?

    Total ITeerieUN dictate$too wonUNother366.
    Mr. BuyDon: seas. WHOdr.own$UNdd’air mediator$BRIedge366?

    Just(as in fair)PAY people too “get” va366xi366no. LOT more-rough 4* = DO-bull (A-morerockcan IDeulogy A-sighed) than CO[II]apse-sing health$care in 11UN USol11air DC’cept!sh!UNsov.4*366.

  54. Paul Vaughan says:

    “IDyet?” DO!n’t Take D-bait

    IT$ left enlisting deep$state agents$provocateurs to trigger extremely bad behaviors truly warranting communist “party$style” speech control.

    Peer$score bon a$side
    no. base-love-a11 COP
    lure UN C11a[$$IC]mode
    11 tweak$UNbound JS :

    9.06942148760331 = harmean(9.3,8.85)
    130.642857142854 = slip(9.06942148760331,1)

    IT’s how hubristic, coy elite (don’t underestimate how smart and cunning they are) provoke innocents into misguided acts so they can justifiably jail and censor them …while finding it amusing (in private but maybe not in public) how easy it is to provoke some into scoring “own-goals”.

    The “Jan. 6 crew” serves ONLY the MOST selfish elite on the planet and works AGAINST the interest of ordinary down-to-earth good people who are attacked mercilessly by repeated rounds of financial inequality (a seemingly “automatic” financial weapon of the financial elite who appear persuaded by nothing whatsoever to take their hateful fingers off their merciless financial triggers).

    Financially-abused citizens sea no. myth above, but the following is really math.

    Comparative view helps sort out sensitive D-tales$ :

    0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246	0.0808503463381246
    ß0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627	0.0745030006844627
    0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708	0.0754402464065708
    0.999978614647502	0.99997862	1.00001743371442	1.00002638193018	1.00001642710472	1.00001743390371	1
    0.0748024157783867	0.0748024158083374	0.0748026329881375	0.0748026830551271	0.0748026273559106	0.0748026329891966	0.0748025354407686
    18.6129709123853	18.6129690579708	18.5995319875902	18.5964370693548	18.5998802114857	18.5995319221089	18.605564902964
    8.84735293159855	8.84735335058712	8.85039257541183	8.85109350901809	8.85031373160104	8.85039259023833	8.84902723663985
    5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073	5.99685290323073
    16.8627856518082	16.862788695945	16.8848913580487	16.8899949413115	16.8843174290344	16.8848914659782	16.874956691622
    179.333323110834	179.333839550924	183.158541510238	184.063510192393	183.057294577131	183.15856055998	181.420670434248
    1879.26478948005	1880.96768212994	400.297181344065	600.241396282931	385.838860664188	400.300002093643	718.081340739559
    491.132481334807	491.172509884427	1200.8915440322	1800.72418884878	1157.51658199256	1200.90000628091	728.252350908336
    1986.46983643213	1986.44871446095	1844.25352645575	1814.31362251033	1847.68353037258	1844.25288265437	1905.51906817164
    
    analogous summary for same year-length with LNC & LAC periods tweaked to 18.6 & 8.85 for comparison:						
    0.999978614647502	0.99997862	1.00001743371442	1.00002638193018	1.00001642710472	1.00001743390371	1
    18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6
    8.85	8.85	8.85	8.85	8.85	8.85	8.85
    5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541	5.99672131147541
    16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769	16.8830769230769
    182.9	182.9	182.9	182.9	182.9	182.9	182.9
    365.800000000051	365.800000000051	365.800000000051	365.800000000051	365.800000000051	365.800000000051	365.800000000051
    1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985	1097.39999999985
    1903.45288620208	1903.43349275755	1772.4831211312	1744.81065706905	1775.65112829956	1772.48252646277	1829.00000000015
    

    Summary key for familiar example (“expert” source of MAJOR blue-CO[II]air-misguidance a decade ago) :

    0.0808503463381246
    0.0745030006844627
    0.0754402464065708
    1.00002638193018
    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5964370693548 = beat(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)
    8.85109350901809 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748026830551271)
    5.99685290323073 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0745030006844627)
    5.99685290323073 = axial(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)
    16.8899949413115 = beat(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)
    184.063510192393 = slip(18.5964370693548,8.85109350901809)
    600.241396282931 = slip(184.063510192393,5.99685290323073)
    1800.72418884878 = slip(184.063510192393,16.8899949413115) —- ALWAYS$SHOW MATH
    1814.31362251033 = slip(5.99685290323073,1.00002638193018) —- CO[$]WORDS DO!N’T WORK

    mode II SSTweakUN ON C[ENSO]R sh!op :

    __ = CEsynodicSSTweakUNwhat?
    __ = CEdraconicSSTweakUNwhat?
    __ = CEanomalisticSSTweakUNwhat?
    1
    __ = beat(1,CEsynodicSSTweakUNwhat?)
    18.6
    8.85
    5.99672131147541 = axial(18.6,8.85)
    16.8830769230769 = beat(18.6,8.85)
    182.9 = slip(18.6,8.85)
    365.8 = slip(182.9,5.99672131147541); Nature UN:bound suggestUN II RECALL 4*366
    1097.4 = slip(182.9,16.8830769230769)
    1829 = slip(5.99672131147541,1)

    “Nature UN” bound II-counter suggest-yuan:
    17.7 = 2 * 8.85
    365.8 = beat(18.6,17.7) ~= 366
    365.8*4 = 1463.2; 366*4 = 1464
    Know-tie singIT$not-right II sea $0 UKcan a cross how$UNfram$inequality.

    366missrepPR$sentIIaceUN$sov.spatiotemporal boundarySF[sic]Cal. AP parrot US eveUNwrong
    belief$notSSTimin’ paradigms$bot$sum “with lunisolar the forces are there” CO[$]!

  55. Paul Vaughan says:

    Moderators: 366 cautionsCO[T] in the fill T air.

  56. Paul Vaughan says:

    Moderators: Detailed, comparative lunisolar calculations are caught in the filter
    (between September 13, 2021 at 7:15 am & September 14, 2021 at 6:31 am).

  57. Paul Vaughan says:

    Classic Climate Graph Review:
    Bill Illis Temperature Geography 45 Myrs

    hidUN “ce11what$now?” (in machine sails)
    recall “org” changed to “cc” (organized climate change)

    knew wayback from “post-image” habits

  58. Paul Vaughan says:

    COPtune DO!11US, ref.US$mmmu11air$hindsite?

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/09/21/met-office-scientist-flunks-simple-logic-test/#comment-107738

    will $sum won (who?) for caste eccentric deviance in hinds[11]ight?

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/28/scafetta-mazzarella-spectral-coherence-between-climate-oscillations-and-the-m-%e2%89%a5-7-earthquake-historical-worldwide-record/comment-page-1/#comment-97290

    copy what survived?

    “The tropics have been long neglected by paleoclimatologists […]” — Berger, Loutre, & Melice (2006)

    disappeared: 4 key graphs (check wayback)

    Phil Salmon, Paul Pukite, & others: Carefully study lunisolar aberrations from central limit on Rial’s classic graph and note: eccentricity, obliquity, s_3 (arctic freshwater episode).

    bot’em water K “Suddenly IC” TuneSSTa11
    better-balance awakeUN:node out$sum why$IRD$no.ITa11ready

    suggestion for sensible folks:
    peace, tranquility; respect & appreciation for nature

    May God bless you.

  59. Paul Vaughan says:

    Record: Sea Cure IT?
    Quest-yuan point$sum PR f(IT)(at)100ka.missinform.acesh!…

    Weather ignore rants
    or DC’cept’sh!own tour(N/A)DO!
    NO ABout
    diss-a-peerUN graphs (now replaced) :

  60. oldbrew says:

  61. Paul Vaughan says:

    Re: sun “UN’s dove” frees 66 96 weak amplification (of misinterpreted “solar PR rock sea”)

    Conventional mainstream nos. CO[$] of secretive decade:
    NAO intregal is not AMO.

    A low CO[II] man[_] can sail NAO integral right past slip(LNC,Chandler) with no AMO.

    Step lad door begins naively with 18.6 & 1.185 and discovers refinements from here:
    980 1470

    Use the table I gave above (insert with comparative year lengths) to explore precise combinations.
    Tropical gives ~64, whereas anomalistic gives ~66.

    Sidereal 65.7 spectacularly monster-ties lunisolar to number theory (836, E8, M11, M, B) & JEV (delectable Heegner scaling fits NASA “factsheet” frame). (I haven’t presented any of this yet.)

    BDO spatial pattern matching ENSO spatial pattern is no mystery.
    Technicians can finish the work (which is reinvention of others’ trade secrets$no. doubt).

    At this point I can understand why there was so much controversy, but also I must assert:
    The cost has been too high.

    Multidisciplinary perspective is a brutal burden in the tragic context of tribal conflict.
    Phil Salmon’s ‘flicker’ article may help unity folks develop lingo bridging fields & paradigms (to counterbalance the unchecked divide-and-conquer leagues).

    The moon stirs strongly. Circulatory topology flickers.
    The sun pulses heat (a subtlety missed by those aggressively prescribing bad assumptions).
    Amplification from weak coupling is detectable where records are adequate and there’s natural coherence (e.g. North Atlantic during last century).

    Another bridge is between events and central limits: patient mediation of superior aggregation criteria design with sensible interpretation of astronomic stats where astronomy & stats tribes (at least initially) incorrectly imagine implicitly standard (but not unbridgeable) tribal assumptions.

    With a well-built bridge both parties are satisfied and fundamental insight is feasible:
    event = central limit + deviation
    Sensible partition affords wealth of methodological opportunity.

    Blue CO[II]air folk US trailed off into white collar focus — hybrid-on-average really discrete flicker.

    Sea year-length refine meanT?
    slip(18.6,1.185)

  62. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rial’s 2012 Synchrony Peace

    Westerly wind volatility mediates ice margin (nonlinear) :

    Paul Pukite should be able to tie it all together. We should find a respectful (and efficient) way to communicate to strongly symbolize that unity is feasible.

    Maybe Ian Wilson and Wim Rost could contribute productively.

    Successful negotiation depends on understanding what another party really wants …as opposed to spin-art perception.

    If we restrict CO2 (for reasons weather true or false) along with vandalism of natural records, we can afford subtle solar truth with strong lunisolar mix.

  63. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Phil Salmon, Paul Pukite, & others: Carefully study lunisolar aberrations from central limit on Rial’s classic graph and note: eccentricity, obliquity, s_3 (arctic freshwater episode).”

    The precession signal is there too. It’s a lot more faint and subtle, but looking carefully it’s obvious.
    Rial’s insight is transformative (in the sense of sharply-corrected perception).

    Wishing good folks everywhere peace, tranquility, deep insight, and mutual respect.

  64. oldmanK says:

    Jose Rial has been popular lately. So looked up Rial:2004 (an early date). https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/pep/Rial2004.NonlinearitiesCC.pdf

    Section 2.4. THE ABRUPT DESERTIFICATION OF THE SAHARA
    “— During the Holocene optimum a slightly increased tilt of the Earth’s spin axis and perihelion in July led to stronger insolation of the Northern Hemisphere during summer thereby strengthening the North African summer monsoon—“,,,, “–This mechanism offers a possible explanation for climate changes in the Sahara and particularly for increased drought in the Sahel and its southward migration in late Holocene.”

    But see fig4 D by deMenocal et al. (2000), the abrupt shift at 5500BP (3550bce) P deMenocal attributes that to a slight wobble in the earth’s axis. That was very abrupt and in no way anything to do with Milankovitch. Other evidence says P deMenocal was right with ‘earth wobble’ but not so slight a wobble.

    See together with ttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/227538423_A_major_widespread_climatic_change_around_5300_cal_yr_BP_at_the_time_of_the_Alpine_Iceman
    “— This rise event was the latest in a series of three successive episodes of higher
    lake-level between 5550 and 5300 cal. yr BP coinciding with glacier advance and tree-limit decline
    in the Alps.–” See fig1 (anthropogenic deposits)

    Combining: the Sahel, at ~15deg lat N desiccated, while in the Alps glaciers suddenly advanced.

  65. Paul Vaughan says:

    Focus

    $400k investment:
    https://www.jsmf.org/grants/2011021/

    unnecessary controversy years later:
    https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/cp-2018-47/
    Click on “Discussion” tab — see referee comments and responses.
    Rial coauthor, but I suspect PhD grad author did most of this writing.

    Concisely

    Section 2.2 lists definitions:
    I/D = Integration/Differentiation (differintegral)
    TBD = Thermal Bipolar Seesaw (‘seesaw’ was early misnomer for 1/4-cycle phase-relationship)

    Key figures
    A3: time series view
    5: note correlation symmetry vs. lack thereof

    Generalized wavelets (not the usual T&C canned software)
    naturally unify the 3 perspectives they argued about.

  66. Paul Vaughan says:

    Assymmetry

    Sensible folks double the equatorial frequency of what’s too well suppressed.
    Sensible folks do find a generalized extension of 96 topological insights.

    Antonio Guturres: Have just someone competent carefully study the 0.5a, 1a, QBO slip structures illustrated at the review-link I gave above (to a comment from 5 years ago). Government & university technicians are paid well enough to generalize and formally communicate.

    Disclosure: I was always a liberal and (oldschool) environmentalist. I stopped voting just over a decade ago. I have never voted for a right wing party, but I have stood with right wingers on 2 key issues. I’ve concluded that elite see profit and/or security in keeping climate trade secrets.

  67. Paul Vaughan says:

    Practical suggestion for Antonio Guterres: simply don’t adjust Southern Ocean records.

  68. Paul Vaughan says:

    Neutrality

    Here’s an alternate link to the image which disappeared above:

    There’s an election in Canada today.
    I’m waiting until after the election to clarify.

    Similarly it seemed prudent (to signal peace & tranquility) to wait until after Sept. 18 to Discretely Clarify perihelion’s role in what’s maybe a more bitter than sweet elite symbol of trade secret circles.

    Note carefully the spacing on the graph: 90. Wonder why it’s not 96?
    Left only this impression: today simply isn’t the right day to clarify.

  69. Paul Vaughan says:

    1470 Year Lunisolar Cycle

    0.0745030006844627 = 27.212221 / 365.25 draconic or nodal
    0.0754402464065708 = 27.55455 / 365.25 anomalistic
    0.0808503463381246 = 29.530589 / 365.25 synodic
    1.00002638193018 = anomalistic year

    anomalistic QBO & Chandler:
    2.36618552272702 = slip(1.00002638193018,0.0745030006844627)
    1.18309276136351 = slip(0.500013190965092,0.0372515003422313)

    anomalistic LNC:
    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5964370693548 = beat(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)

    Recall: More than a decade ago Piers Corbyn referred to a “132 year lookback cycle”.
    132.121308131495 = slip(18.5964370693548,2.36618552272702)
    66.0606540657476 = slip(9.29821853467739,1.18309276136351)

    4 equatorial extremes per year, full or new moon, 2 distance extremes:
    0.0347983967549814 = axial(0.250006595482546,0.0404251731690623)
    0.449254862184865 = beat(0.0377201232032854,0.0347983967549814)

    DO:
    1469.98825699241 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.449254862184865)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(132.121308131495,0.449254862184865)

  70. Paul Vaughan says:

    Compare and contrast (from last comment) :

    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    0.0347983967549814 = axial(0.250006595482546,0.0404251731690623)

  71. Paul Vaughan says:

    Node Out

    504.089252665738 = slip(132.121308131495,0.0372515003422313)
    358.100381798399 = slip(132.121308131495,0.0745030006844627)
    209.367576023155 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.0745030006844627)

    Lunisolar PR rock seaS AMplify amicably.

    504.089252665718 = beat(132.121308131495,104.683788011578)
    504.089252665579 = beat(358.100381798399,209.367576023155)
    504.08925266544 = beat(179.0501908992,132.121308131495)
    358.100381798399 = beat(132.121308131495,96.5128468557939)
    358.100381798329 = beat(209.367576023155,132.121308131495)
    358.100381798319 = beat(504.089252665738,209.367576023155)
    209.367576023183 = axial(504.089252665738,358.100381798399)
    209.367576023131 = beat(358.100381798399,132.121308131495)
    193.025693711598 = harmean(209.367576023155,179.0501908992)
    193.025693711588 = harmean(358.100381798399,132.121308131495)
    179.0501908992 = beat(209.367576023155,96.512846855799)
    179.050190899164 = beat(104.683788011578,66.0606540657476)
    147.927583963137 = axial(504.089252665738,209.367576023155)
    147.927583963123 = beat(358.100381798399,104.683788011578)
    132.121308131505 = axial(358.100381798399,209.367576023155)
    132.121308131505 = harmean(209.367576023155,96.512846855799)
    132.121308131505 = harmean(179.0501908992,104.683788011578)
    104.683788011566 = beat(179.0501908992,66.0606540657476)
    100.432399451471 = harmean(104.683788011578,96.5128468557939)
    96.512846855799 = axial(209.367576023155,179.0501908992)
    96.512846855799 = harmean(104.683788011578,89.5250954495998)
    96.5128468557939 = axial(358.100381798399,132.121308131495)
    96.5128468557939 = harmean(179.0501908992,66.0606540657476)
    66.0606540657524 = axial(209.367576023155,96.512846855799)
    66.0606540657523 = axial(179.0501908992,104.683788011578)
    50.2161997257354 = axial(104.683788011578,96.5128468557939)

  72. Paul Vaughan says:

    Tropical 504

    Keplerian sidereal QBO
    2.36683696795607 = slip(1.00001743371442,0.0745030006844627)

    Meeus tropical year

    0.0748024157783867 = axial(0.999978614647502,0.0808503463381246)
    9.30648545619264 = beat(0.0374012078891933,0.0372515003422313)
    8.84735293159855 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748024157783867)
    9.07111318552874 = harmean(9.30648545619264,8.84735293159855)
    127.211780914089 = slip(9.07111318552874,0.999978614647502)
    503.986954863856 = slip(127.211780914089,2.36683696795607)

    lowest amicable pair
    504 = 220 + 284

    Seidelmann tropical year

    0.0748024158083374 = axial(0.99997862,0.0808503463381246)
    9.30648452898541 = beat(0.0374012079041687,0.0372515003422313)
    8.84735335058712 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748024158083374)
    9.07111296530374 = harmean(9.30648452898541,8.84735335058712)
    127.212257338899 = slip(9.07111296530374,0.99997862)
    504.391082483602 = slip(127.212257338899,2.36683696795607)

    crude outline of attractor structure
    504 = C-67-43-19-11-7-3-2-1
    131.4 = 2C/(163-67-43-19-11-7-3-2-1) = C/5
    13.14 = harmean(Saturn nodal period,Jupiter period)

    Attractors invite deeper matrix exploration (both statistical & physical).
    Selective summary of period variation with year-length (as an introduction) :

    0.999978614647502	0.99997862	1.00001743371442	1.00002638193018	1.00001642710472	1.00001743390371	1
    1.18483367770519	1.1848334823328	1.18341848397804	1.18309276136351	1.18345513700963	1.18341847708579	1.18405361806548
    6.40939079526111	6.40939673233958	6.45273903097551	6.46281407485347	6.45160761523346	6.45273924377113	6.43319936065692
    						
    2.36966735541038	2.36966696466561	2.36683696795607	2.36618552272702	2.36691027401925	2.36683695417158	2.36810723613097
    18.6129709123853	18.6129690579708	18.5995319875902	18.5964370693548	18.5998802114857	18.5995319221089	18.605564902964
    128.079724041952	128.080163084749	131.344929453657	132.121308131495	131.25816216221	131.344945780547	129.858189488595
    64.0398620209761	64.0400815423744	65.6724647268287	66.0606540657476	65.629081081105	65.6724728902734	64.9290947442977
    						
    8.84735293159855	8.84735335058712	8.85039257541183	8.85109350901809	8.85031373160104	8.85039259023833	8.84902723663985
    9.07111318552874	9.07111296530374	9.06951634507378	9.06914835334522	9.0695577437685	9.06951633728891	9.07023340417327
    127.211780914089	127.212257338899	130.763371870649	131.610318726047	130.668777120846	130.763389671795	129.144151717269
    63.6058904570445	63.6061286694497	65.3816859353243	65.8051593630235	65.3343885604232	65.3816948358974	64.5720758586344
    						
    9.0943796900619	9.09435002845515	8.88423674411397	8.83716877134193	8.88956299651967	8.88423574313289	8.97739635846302
    96.1613372617316	96.1912425566793	76.6423345326297	54.1943595178496	80.3881294180509	76.6416629778363	397.165932036879
    
  73. Paul Vaughan says:

    836

    with Meeus tropical year length

    9.07111318552874 = harmean(9.30648545619264,8.84735293159855)

    annual:
    127.211780914089 = slip(9.07111318552874,0.999978614647502)
    835.369658922651 = slip(127.211780914089,6.40939079526111)

    semi-annual:
    63.6058904570445 = slip(9.07111318552874,0.499989307323751)
    835.369658922651 = slip(63.6058904570445,6.40939079526111)


    Keplerian sidereal
    19.8650360864628 = beat(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    61.0464822565173 = slip(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    835.546575435631 = slip(61.0464822565173,19.8650360864628)

    with Seidelmann tropical year length

    9.07111296530374 = harmean(9.30648452898541,8.84735335058712)

    annual:
    127.212257338899 = slip(9.07111296530374,0.99997862)
    835.67980920134 = slip(127.212257338899,6.40939673233958)

    semi-annual:
    63.6061286694497 = slip(9.07111296530374,0.49998931)
    835.67980920134 = slip(63.6061286694497,6.40939673233958)


    836 = smallest untouchable weird number

  74. Paul Vaughan says:

    61 &
    2545

    Recall Schneider’s classic discovery.
    Change φ to 240 (E8) in his famous equation.

    1.00001743390371 = (1-(1/240)^1)^(0/1)/(1-(1/240)^2)^(2/2)/(1-(1/240)^3)^(3/3)/(1-(1/240)^4)^(2/4)/(1-(1/240)^5)^(5/5)/(1-(1/240)^6)^(1/6)

    semi-annual

    0.0695967068305125 = axial(0.500008716951856,0.0808503463381246)
    1.05683916434301 = beat(0.0745030006844627,0.0695967068305125)

    6.45273924377113 = slip(1.00001743390371,0.0372515003422313)
    61.0496653370885 = slip(6.45273924377113,1.05683916434301)

    61.0464822565173 = slip(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)

    annual

    0.0748026329891966 = axial(1.00001743390371,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5995319221089 = beat(0.0748026329891966,0.0745030006844627)

    131.344945780547 = slip(18.5995319221089,2.36683695417158)
    2545.39746000647 = slip(131.344945780547,0.0745030006844627)

    Review (from most recent Scafetta thread) :
    16.9122914926352 = harmean(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    111.292543528394 = harmean(164.791315640078,84.016845922161)
    19.9428577113341 = beat(111.292543528394,16.9122914926352)
    2545.34384727948 = slip(19.8650360864628,9.97142885566705)

    *√2: ~7200
    /√2: ~1800

    2545.34384727773 = 301/(1/29.4474984673838+1/11.8626151546089-1/2/3/7/43/271)
    489426 = 2*3*7*43*271 = 1806*271

    Confounding’s clear:
    • jovian
    • lunisolar
    • 10Be & 14C

    Interpret records carefully.

  75. Paul Vaughan says:

    Recall:
    2545 = ΣΣδ(220)
    284 = s(220)
    See most recent Scafetta thread for (selected) details.

  76. Paul Vaughan says:

    Here’s another noteworthy slip cycle:
    734.656726321473 = slip(132.121308131495,2.36691027401925)
    That’s an anomalistic slip on a sidereal frame.

    We’re used to thinking about 8.84 & 18.6 (LAC & LNC) in an annual frame, but their semi-annual analogs (~1.06 & ~0.9) simplify in the following sense:

    15 ~= 14.994646953627 = slip(1.05675245596013,0.0808503463381246)
    8 ~= 8.00090645270494 = slip(0.89843260443588,0.0808503463381246)
    That’s in the tropical frame.

    This is in the anomalistic frame:
    14.7205141928538 = slip(1.0568591521082,0.0808503463381246)
    ~= Saturn node period

    Thus 5.93 & BDO reconcile with lunisolar framing.

    I have a lot of new insights to share about JEV. Where the Keplerian frame ties neatly to M11 & E8, NASA “factsheet” fits the analogous structure (in an exact logical sense) tightly to Heegner.

  77. Paul Vaughan says:

    735 year LNC QBO cycle

    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5964370693548 = beat(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)
    2.36618552272702 = slip(1.00002638193018,0.0745030006844627)
    132.121308131495 = slip(18.5964370693548,2.36618552272702)

    2.36691027401925 = slip(1.00001642710472,0.0745030006844627)
    734.656726321473 = slip(132.121308131495,2.36691027401925)
    _
    There’s a 1470 year tropical year cycle too, but it’s extremely sensitive to parameter tweaks.
    It’s there with Meeus, but not with Seidelmann.

  78. Paul Vaughan says:

    735 year LNC QBO Chandler wobble cycle

    0.0374013415275636 = axial(0.500013190965092,0.0404251731690623)
    9.29821853467739 = beat(0.0374013415275636,0.0372515003422313)
    1.18309276136351 = slip(0.500013190965092,0.0372515003422313)
    66.0606540657476 = slip(9.29821853467739,1.18309276136351)

    2.36691027401925 = slip(1.00001642710472,0.0745030006844627)
    734.656726321473 = slip(66.0606540657476,2.36691027401925)

  79. Paul Vaughan says:

    1470 year lunisolar cycle

    An alternate derivation is arguably simpler and more intuitive.

    extremes of anomalistic month & year:
    0.0377201232032854 = 0.0754402464065708 / 2
    0.500013190965092 = 1.00002638193018 / 2

    semi-annual with synodic month (analog of tropical month)
    0.0695967935099628 = axial(0.500013190965092,0.0808503463381246)
    0.449254862184865 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0377201232032854)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(132.121308131495,0.449254862184865)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.449254862184865)

  80. Paul Vaughan says:

    980 Year Lunisolar Cycle

    0.0695967935099628 = axial(0.500013190965092,0.0808503463381246)
    semi-annual analog of LAC:
    0.898509724369729 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0695967935099628)

    2939.97651398482 = slip(132.121308131495,0.898509724369729)

    979.992171328273 = axial(2939.97651398482,1469.98825699241)

    Carefully interpret “solar” proxies.

  81. Paul Vaughan says:

    also note:
    979.392437010056 = beat(2939.97651398482,734.656726321473)
    979.692212384925 = harmean(1469.98825699241,734.656726321473)

  82. Paul Vaughan says:

    980 & 1470 year lunisolar cycles
    sorted by anomalistic harmonics

    ~132

    27.55455 days = 0.0754402464065708 = 0.0754402464065708 / 1
    0.898509724369729 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0754402464065708)
    2939.97651398482 = slip(132.121308131495,0.898509724369729)

    13.777275 days = 0.0377201232032854 = 0.0754402464065708 / 2
    0.449254862184865 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0377201232032854)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(132.121308131495,0.449254862184865)

    9.18485 days = 0.0251467488021903 = 0.0754402464065708 / 3
    0.299503241456576 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0251467488021903)
    979.99217132649 = slip(132.121308131495,0.299503241456576)

    ~66

    27.55455 days = 0.0754402464065708 = 0.0754402464065708 / 1
    0.898509724369729 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0754402464065708)
    138.338167186757 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.898509724369729)

    13.777275 days = 0.0377201232032854 = 0.0754402464065708 / 2
    0.449254862184865 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0377201232032854)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.449254862184865)

    9.18485 days = 0.0251467488021903 = 0.0754402464065708 / 3
    0.299503241456576 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0251467488021903)
    152.709396271004 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.299503241456576)

    1469.98825698797 = beat(152.709396271004,138.338167186757)

  83. Paul Vaughan says:

    Unified View

    • semi-annual oscillation (SAO)
    • quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)

    • annual oscillation (2 antiphased hemispheres)

    http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm

    Trade $secret?circles$blue[neither]CO[II]air[nor]folkUS D-visibly:
    $simple enough for Homer (myth or math?) Simpson to follow “DO!”
    (node out: known for many decades buy$sum rich herd ’11and$UN’)

    980 & 1470: generalized hierarchical extension
    • slip on lunar nodal cycle (LNC)
    • Distance and strength vary with anomalistic (both lunar month and terrestrial year).
    Summary: DO unify white collar focus.

  84. Paul Vaughan says:

    Overview of ~66 & ~132 year lunisolar cycles with 0.07 link to 980 & 1470

    0.0745030006844627 = 27.212221 / 365.25 draconic or nodal
    0.0754402464065708 = 27.55455 / 365.25 anomalistic
    0.0808503463381246 = 29.530589 / 365.25 synodic
    1.00002638193018 = anomalistic year

    extremes of anomalistic month & year:
    0.0377201232032854 = 0.0754402464065708 / 2
    0.500013190965092 = 1.00002638193018 / 2

    anomalistic lunar nodal cycle (LNC)
    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    18.5964370693548 = beat(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)
    anomalistic quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) slip on anomalistic LNC
    2.36618552272702 = slip(1.00002638193018,0.0745030006844627)
    132.121308131495 = slip(18.5964370693548,2.36618552272702)

    directionless anomalistic lunar nodal cycle (LNC)
    0.0374013415275636 = axial(0.500013190965092,0.0404251731690623)
    9.29821853467739 = beat(0.0374013415275636,0.0372515003422313)
    anomalistic Chandler wobble (CW) slip on directionless anomalistic LNC
    1.18309276136351 = slip(0.500013190965092,0.0372515003422313)
    66.0606540657476 = slip(9.29821853467739,1.18309276136351)

    anomalistic lunar apse cycle (LAC)
    not used in 980 & 1470 calculations below
    but presented to ensure conscious comparative recognition
    of analogous (annual vs. semi-annual) structure:

    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    8.85109350901809 = slip(0.0754402464065708,0.0748026830551271)

    semi-annual analog:
    0.0695967935099628 = axial(0.500013190965092,0.0808503463381246)
    DEEP semi-annual ignorance persistently corrupts climate discourse.

    27.55455 days = 0.0754402464065708 = 0.0754402464065708 / 1
    0.898509724369729 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0754402464065708)
    2939.97651398482 = slip(132.121308131495,0.898509724369729)

    13.777275 days = 0.0377201232032854 = 0.0754402464065708 / 2
    0.449254862184865 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0377201232032854)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(132.121308131495,0.449254862184865)
    1469.98825699241 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.449254862184865)

    9.18485 days = 0.0251467488021903 = 0.0754402464065708 / 3
    0.299503241456576 = slip(0.0695967935099628,0.0251467488021903)
    979.99217132649 = slip(132.121308131495,0.299503241456576)

    Industrious lunisolar climate modelers can explore the range of domains over which these (and other) combinations focus flickering questions on localized observational record segments.

  85. oldmanK says:

    PV, your link here • $simple enough for Homer (myth or math?) Simpson to follow “DO!” makes for very interesting reading. It is from 2016, and a lot has advanced since then.

    980 figures frequently, but being 2/3 of 1470, is there a 490 fundamental?

    Somewhere down was link to a ref to Mayan long count start date (3114bce). Maybe not quite. Working back from 2012 >> (13*20* 20)-2012= 3188, very near to the 3195bce big tectonic event.

    At oldbrew says: May 19, 2016 at 3:06 pm Sicily link to update; it is the reverse; exodus and abandonment.

  86. Paul Vaughan says:

    491, 1200, & 1800 are (simpler) base-level cycles (already addressed repeatedly).

    Search in-page “491.” (Ctrl-F 491.) on present page and this page. This is review too:

    979.992171328273 = axial(2939.97651398482,1469.98825699241), both of which are fundamental
    979.692212384925 = harmean(1469.98825699241,734.656726321473)
    979.392437010056 = beat(2939.97651398482,734.656726321473)

    oldmanK wrote: It is from 2016, and a lot has advanced since then.”

    The basic lesson (on circulatory topology) doesn’t change (like widespread ignorance of it).

  87. Paul Vaughan says:

    ~4 centuries left:
    to observe weather
    1 second error write 980

    5.99685290323073 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0745030006844627)

    tropical semi-annual:
    993.234918216065 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.499989307323751)
    73501.5516234109 = slip(993.234918216065,979.99217132649)

    tropical annual:
    1986.46983643213 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.999978614647502)
    73501.5516234109 = slip(1986.46983643213,979.99217132649)

    993.235201555197 = beat(73500,979.99217132649)
    0.999978614503902 = beat(1986.47040311039,5.99685290323073/6)

    993.235078146513 = beat(73500.6758031972,979.99217132649)
    0.999978614566447 = beat(1986.47015629303,5.99685290323073/6)

    Meeus
    0.999978614647502 =
    365.242189 / 365.25

    -0.453176192137 seconds/century absolute (-0.000000014360 = % error) :
    0.999978614503902 =
    365.24218894755 / 365.25

    1986.4704031103 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.999978614503902)
    73500 = slip(1986.4704031103,979.99217132649)

    993.235201555148 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.499989307251951)
    73500 = slip(993.235201555148,979.99217132649)

    -0.255795059058 seconds/century absolute (-0.000000008106 = % error) :
    0.999978614566447 =
    365.242188970395 / 365.25

    1986.47015629328 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.999978614566447)
    73500.6758025064 = slip(1986.47015629328,979.99217132649)

    993.235078146639 = slip(5.99685290323073,0.499989307283223)
    73500.6758025064 = slip(993.235078146639,979.99217132649)

    36750.3379015986 = 8 / (g_2 + 5*(g_3 + g_4) + g_6 + s_2 + s_3 + s_4 + s_6)

  88. Paul Vaughan says:

    oldmanK, there are 41ka & 100ka lunisolar cycles. The 41ka cycle derives from DO.

  89. oldmanK says:

    PV, 41ka is a very long period, only for academics (who don’t want to have to prove it, like the ‘big-bang’). (sorry, but my engineer-brained character makes me look for the more pragmatic issues in this topic).

    490 is a half-Eddy, 980/2, a root to a peak, the last root at approx 1680CE, the LIA. So the next change centres on 2170CE. However past events have variably occurred at +/_ 100yrs from inflection point. It is of interest to us and our grandchildren.

    oldmanK wrote: “It is from 2016, and a lot has advanced since then.” Since 2016, all events from the 6195bce inflection point, down to the LIA’ have become known from the historical side. See updated pic at bottom here: https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2019/03/15/searching-evidence-update-2/

    The proxies hint to some change, but interpretation is wide and ‘wild’. It was similar with the historical, but now the common repetitive element in the human social irruptions, that figures widely is ‘famine’. Today we have better tools, better knowledge (I hope), but seemingly not the good sense nor the right direction.

  90. Paul Vaughan says:

    crude conclusion:
    6125 ~= slip(2940,1986.5)
    7200 ~= beat(41k,6125); Remember 1200 & 1800 when interpreting discretely (no sinusoids hear). Topological switches go on and off.
    49k = 8*6125
    near-integer (100*) scaling of JS frame (with 100*2.37 too remind)

    so oldmanK there’s the BIG reason (obvious with hindsight refined)
    for your (well justified) 41ka concerns

    I’ve put my decadal-centennial solar insights into lunisolar (aliasing & mixing) context.

    Regards

  91. Paul Vaughan says:

    Careful Scrutiny

    1.00001743390371 = (1-(1/240)^1)^(0/1)/(1-(1/240)^2)^(2/2)/(1-(1/240)^3)^(3/3)/(1-(1/240)^4)^(2/4)/(1-(1/240)^5)^(5/5)/(1-(1/240)^6)^(1/6)

    1.00001642707375 = axial(1986500/2,1.00001743390371) =
    365.255999988687 / 365.25

    -0.000000003097 = % “error”
    -0.097745258531 seconds/century = absolute “error”
    vs. NASA “factsheet”:
    1.00001642710472 =
    365.256 / 365.25

    2.37
    23.7
    2370
    2370000

    *1
    *10
    *100
    *1000

    DO derivation (above) crystallized 2370 level

    beat(quarter-trefoil~=600,JStropical~=800)=2401=49^2=7^2^2
    recall anomalistic derived from JEV111ka, M11, 490, & JStropical64ka (most recent Scafetta thread)
    preliminary wrap’s done

    material shapestream evolution
    lunisolar 41ka demands serious attention
    coincidence of Heinrich & lunisolar extremes with greatest orbital tilt

  92. oldbrew says:

    Evidence for Solar Modulation on the Millennial-Scale Climate Change of Earth (2020)
    by Xinhua Zhao 1,2,3,*ORCID, Willie Soon 4 and Victor M. Velasco Herrera 5

    Abstract
    In this study, we use available reconstructed data to investigate periodicities of solar activity (i.e., sunspot number) and the Earth’s climate change (temperatures of Lake Qinghai in China and Vostok in Antarctica, the GISP δ18O climate record of Greenland, and the stalagmite δ18O monsoon records of Dongge Cave in China) as well as their cross-wavelet coherences on millennial scale. We find that the variations of the Earth’s climate indices exhibited the 1000-year cyclicity, which was recently discovered in solar activity (called Eddy cycle). The cross-wavelet correlations between the millennium-cycle components of sunspot number and the Earth’s climate change remains both strong and stable during the past 8640 years (BC 6755–AD 1885). The millennial variation of sunspot number keeps in-phase with variations of Lake Qinghai temperature, Greenland temperature, and East Asian Monsoon, but anti-phase with the variation of Antarctica temperature. The strong and stable resonant relationships between sunspot numbers and these climate indices indicate that solar variability may have played a role in modulation on this millennial seesaw pattern of the Earth’s climate change before the modern industrial era.

    https://www.mdpi.com/2218-1997/6/9/153/htm

  93. oldmanK says:

    Re: oldbrew says: September 29, 2021 at 9:12 am

    Seems J A Eddy is coming back in the spotlight. The referred to paper is interesting, however I would take issue with their conclusions – in part perhaps- on the polar aspect. Chronology of proxies is important.

    The paper says Vostok and Gisp2 are opposite in response to change. Looking closely in more detail is revealing.

    [mod] changed url of link as WordPress can’t handle ‘:’ in url’s
    See https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png#/media/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

    There, it is easy to identify Vostok, Gisp2, and Kilimanjaro (data sources 2,3 and 4, all d18O, and perhaps 3 from the additional). Then take a point in time, conveniently at between 11.5 -12k BP, an abrupt global change. A synchronising point for all chronologies. Gisp2 is very delayed which is impossible. The others are in sync. It is a major global event that could not affect Gisp2 1100 yrs late. Even source 3-additional is in step.

    Even the global effect of Krakatoa was much faster. I think that puts the Eddy effect in a different perspective. A global driver.

    What is observable in the proxies then, is the polar versus equatorial see-saw.

  94. Paul Vaughan says:

    Regarding OB’s link. They’re using the Torrence & Compo package. As I have counselled countless times for more than a decade: T&C locked parameters (grain & extent) together, so that’s a microscope that by design can’t focus …yet contagiously that package spread widely and persisted.

    Generalized wavelets have the flexibility to subsume all other methods (e.g. Hilbert, T&C, Tim Channon’s methods, Fourier, SSA, etc. — all just special cases with different restrictions on parameters). It’s remarkable that generalized wavelet methods did not spread widely a decade ago.

    And again: The widespread assumption that records represent “solar” activity looks like groupthink that caught on and stuck.

    I’ve mostly maintained a boycott on sharing new analyses for the past decade, but I may decide to make one (or two) strategic exception(s).

  95. oldbrew says:

    From the Soon et al paper:

    3.1. Eddy Cycle in SSN and Climate Indices

    Figure 1 shows the Lomb-Scargle periodograms of these time series. It can be seen that the variations of SSN have some cyclicities higher than the 95% confidence level (red horizontal dotted line), i.e., 150 year, 208 year (Suess or de Vries cycle [17]), 350 year, 500 year, 720 year, 990 year (Eddy cycle [4,18,19,20]), and so on.
    – – –
    They’re finding some of the well known cycles.

  96. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB: the cycles below 1000 are compatible with several frameworks. The bimillennial scale in contrast opens up potential for simpler diagnostics (because there we see frameworks diverge), but for the most powerful largely-untapped diagnostic frontier, count the towers in the 100ka span of Rials’ classic stack of graphs. The strong 6-7ka variation affords a rich wealth of globally synchronized diagnostic potential.

    Have you considered the implications of the classification theorem for spatiotemporal chaos?

    Always keep in mind that 27.03 days and 11.07 years together are coherent with lunar draconic in long-run central limit and bear in mind the implications (in the sense of long-run symmetry balanced over the equatorial splitter).

  97. Paul Vaughan says:

    A decade ago there were some costly cross-disciplinary communication failures.
    I’m quickly and coarsely noting a few.

    Some held a belief that AMO was a NAO or ENSO integral and missed a key North Atlantic distinction between SSH & SST.

    Some of the lunisolar cycles are equatorial amplitude cycles.
    Some are pole-pole contrasts. Some are equator-pole.

    One of the obstacles I realize with clearer hindsight now is semantic.

    For example, say “semi-annual” and some think of equatorial winds aloft. Others may think of a combination (e.g. in LOD & AAM) from paired annual westerly winds (north & south).

    Definitions may have been among the roots of a fatal communication failure (one with extreme cost).

    Another example is “sidereal” orbital period without differentiating Keplerian vs. fit (and without a thought about how the 2 might systematically relate in some generalized sense not yet maturely evolved in discourse).

    A costly mistake was word descriptions (and/or rounded-off math) where only detailed math can do (to eliminate ambiguity and model conflation).

    During the past few weeks my understanding of those past communication failures deepened by an order of magnitude.

  98. Paul Vaughan says:

    recall: LOD variations show 2 clear envelopes: 18.6, 3.57
    recall: 3.57 year polar eclipse cycle illustrated by Meeus
    by analogy with node, explore apse

    lunisolar amplitude cycle nearly matches
    beat of J with JEV (Keplerian, not fits)

    0.0748026830551271 = axial(1.00002638193018,0.0808503463381246)
    0.0373262705562899 = axial(0.0748026830551271,0.0745030006844627)
    3.57481798038642 = beat(0.0377201232032854,0.0373262705562899)
    3.57481798038642 = axial(7.30738210354141,6.99855650737312)
    7.30738210354141 = slip(3.57481798038642,2.36618552272702)
    6.99855650737312 = beat(3.57481798038642,2.36618552272702)
    165.598730180168 = beat(7.30738210354141,6.99855650737312)
    165.598730180167 = slip(7.30738210354141,3.57481798038642)
    165.592295082485 = beat(11.8626151546089,11.0696157491919)
    165.592296029702 = beat(11.8626151546089,11.0696157534247)
    11.0696157534247 = (φ^22+1/11)^(e/11+1/22)/2
    checking balance with notes above:
    11.8625821363814 = beat(165.598730180167,11.0696157534247); 11.07
    14.7238052995025 = beat(11.8625821363814,6.56961575342472); -9/2
    61.0446441146898 = beat(14.7238052995025,11.8625821363814)
    in an almost-integer sense
    simple sporadic groups account for lunisolar weave into jovian fabric
    61.0464822565173 = beat(14.7237492336919,11.8626151546089)
    1806 ~= 1806.00086892361 = (73500+36750)/61.0464822565173

  99. Paul Vaughan says:

    735 Directions

    full or new moon:
    0.0404251731690623 = 0.0808503463381246 / 2

    anomalistic equatorial extremes:
    0.250006595482546 = 1.00002638193018 / 4
    0.0188600616016427 = 0.0754402464065708 / 4

    0.0347983967549814 = axial(0.250006595482546,0.0404251731690623)
    0.224627431092432 = slip(0.0347983967549814,0.0188600616016427)
    734.994128496205 = slip(66.0606540657476,0.224627431092432)

  100. Paul Vaughan says:

    490 year cycle

    489.996085664137 = axial(1469.98825699241,734.994128496205)
    979.992171328273 = harmean(1469.98825699241,734.994128496205)

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