No alarm here? NASA finds 2021 Arctic summer sea ice 12th-lowest on satellite record

Posted: September 23, 2021 by oldbrew in sea ice
Tags: ,

Credits: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio

With only 43 years of official satellite data, 12th-lowest is somewhat yawn-inducing from an alarmist point of view, but interesting in that it’s 38% greater than the lowest level (since 1978) reached in 2012. But that stat probably won’t feature in any media headlines, as it might sow seeds of doubt about the supposed correlation of a slowly rising CO2 level with increasing seasonal sea ice loss, which very clearly failed to show this year.
– – –
Sea ice in the Arctic appears to have hit its annual minimum extent on Sept. 16, after waning in the 2021 Northern Hemisphere spring and summer, says SpaceRef.

The summertime extent is the 12th-lowest in the satellite record, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center and NASA.

This year, the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice dropped to 4.72 million square kilometers (1.82 million square miles).

Sea ice extent is defined as the total area in which ice concentration is at least 15%.

The average September minimum extent record shows significant declines since satellites began measuring consistently in 1978.

The last 15 years (2007 to 2021) are the lowest 15 minimum extents in the 43-year satellite record.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Low sea ice is promoted as a disaster.
    Low sea ice is necessary for evaporation and snowfall and rebuilding of sequestered ice in Polar Regions. It does not snow when the polar oceans are covered with sea ice. Polar Sequestered Ice on Land is Rebuilt when the Polar Oceans are Thawed. Polar Sequestered Ice On Land Depletes when the Polar Oceans are covered with Sea Ice.

    This is supported by History and Ice Core Records and Just Plain Common Sense!

  2. oldbrew says:

    Sea ice clearly hit its most recent peak in the late 1970s. The graph below shows two downward trend lines but fails to join them with any upward trend line in between (1940-1979), for obvious propaganda reasons. The graph ends in 2010 although the article it appeared in was from 2019. The later data must have been available, but the conclusion has to be that it didn’t suit the alarmist narrative.

    Source: https://phys.org/news/2019-08-century-arctic-sea-ice-volume.html
    – – –
    No downward trend worth mentioning since 2007, given that September 2021 minimum is only 12th lowest (not shown on this graph).

  3. Ron Clutz says:

    Here’s the Arctic ice extents on day 260 in 2021 and previous years:

    Arctic Ice Abounds at 2021 Minimum

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    Oldbrew

    From your graph, peak sea ice was the late 1980s, if not 1990 (yes not the highest but pretty clearly in the “peak” era). The recovery from 1940 to 1950 is very much the opposite the decline 1990-2000.

    It’s very unclear how such large variation could have CO2 as the driver. Whatever is the cause, stability seems to be much less common than either rapid loss or rapid gain.

  5. Ned Nikolov says:

    Climate alarmists exclusively focus on the signs of warming, but the latter by itself reveals nothing about the underlying causes. Implicitly assuming that any warming in recent decades was a proof of “anthropogenic climate change” is a logical fallacy. Satellite data and a new analysis of the relationship between global surface temperature and reflected solar radiation show that the observed “global warming” since 1980 is fully explainable by the measured decrease of global cloud cover and albedo. Watch this video for details:

  6. oldbrew says:

    An excuse often wheeled out for the 1940-1980 rising temperature trend is aerosols. But that’s just a desperate attempt to salvage the failed theory of trace gases having enormous effects on global climate.

  7. rod says:

    Context;
    Results indicate periodic seasonally sea-ice-free conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (∼57-29 ka), rapid deglacial changes in water mass conditions (15-11 ka), seasonally sea-ice-free conditions during the early Holocene (∼10-7 ka)
    from: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70193010
    No disaster
    No emergency
    No catastrophe
    I would speculate that claiming catastrophe as the only possible outcome of climate change is an extraordinary claim
    and
    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”
    which I ain’t seeing.

  8. Johna says:

    I’d be wary of these Al Gore politically controlled NASA type graphs as in hard core engineering and science R&D we have to compare eggs with eggs when deciphering the results of what’s being measured. What’s also required to properly quantify results is the standards used methodology of testing and the repeatability of results buy independent bodies using the same methods – often competitors tying to tweak a gain here and there in performance lower cost etc. Otherwise the results are not valid to the scientific and engineering standards that have been in force for over 150 years or so. 40 years of technical results from satellites is also massively insignificance when we have based our knowledge of climate change on nearly 1 million years of tangible results from the ice cores. From which it is crystal clear CO2 does not drive Earths temperature. It is also clear that above around 250 ppm CO2 cant add any heat from inbound IR that is already heating the Earths surface by inbound UV B. Moreover the differences in heat input are massively biased towards UV B in the same absorption spectrums. Also bear in mind that there were no UHI effects in the ice ages from low level O3 due to the mass increase in NOx and VOC’s from the use of IC engines – the smoking gun in what is a juxtaposed analysis of what’s really going on? Where CO2 may have been effective in direct surface heating is when Earth transited out of the ice age eg a kind of kick start heat up mechanism as around 400 ppm CO2 is almost asymptotic in IR absorption with no net heat input to earths land and sea surfaces whatsoever. But the ice age did not cover the entire earth (40 N/S P) so CO2 in this area must have been higher than what the ice cores measured? Volcanic emissions also produce hotter and cooler periods in and out of the ice age records and are inexorably more significant to climate change.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Arctic sea ice decline continues, with 2021 the 12th lowest summer minimum extent on record
    Posted on 24 September, 2021 by Met Office Press Office

    https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2021/09/24/arctic-sea-ice-decline-continues-with-2021-the-12th-lowest-summer-minimum-extent-on-record/
    Official blog of the Met Office news team

    oldbrew says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    24 September, 2021 at 4:15 pm
    If the graph line is going up, how is that a continuing decline?
    – – –
    Past experience suggests the comment won’t appear on their blog.

  10. oldbrew says:

    La Niña Weather Pattern has 50% Chance of Forming in 4Q
    September 17, 2021

    Oleochem Analytics — Strengthening model outlooks and recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean has raised the chance of La Niña forming in the fourth quarter of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said in its latest Climate Driver Update issued September 14.

    Australia’s BOM has lifted its El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook status to La Niña WATCH, meaning around a 50% chance of La Niña forming. This is approximately double the normal likelihood, the BOM informed.

    https://oleochemanalytics.com/2021/09/17/la-nina-weather-pattern-has-50-chance-of-forming-in-4q/

  11. oldbrew says:

    Plentiful Arctic Ice Sept. 2021
    Posted 2 Hours Ago by Ron Clutz

    https://rclutz.com/2021/10/01/plentiful-arctic-ice-sept-2021/
    – – –
    Send that to the Met Office doomsters 🙄

    Funny how their recent ‘sea ice decline’ blog post shows zero replies, when I know of at least 2 that were sent, including my own…
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/09/23/no-alarm-here-nasa-finds-2021-arctic-summer-sea-ice-12th-lowest-on-satellite-record/comment-page-1/#comment-172211

  12. Roger,

    You support a story that says sea ice is only 12th lowest.

    That promotes the alarmism that low sea ice can be any kind of problem.

    This is playing in the peer reviewed consens home fields. They print that to sucker you in, look for actual honest science.

    Low sea ice is necessary for evaporation and snowfall and rebuilding of land ice on Greenland and Antarctica and many other cold places where ice is sequestered.

    THERE IS NO EVAPORATION AND NO SNOWFALL AND NO INCREASE OF SEQUESTERED LAND ICE IN POLAR REGIONS WHEN THE POLAR OCEANS ARE COVERED WITH SEA ICE.

    WARM TIMES WITH THAWED POLAR OCEANS ARE ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO REBUILD THE SEQUESTERED ICE ON GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC AND MANY OTHER COLD PLACES.

    Please call, email, somehow, communicate with me.

    Alex Pope

    Virus-free. http://www.avg.com

    On Fri, Oct 1, 2021 at 1:41 PM Tallbloke’s Talkshop wrote:

    > oldbrew commented: “Plentiful Arctic Ice Sept. 2021 Posted 2 Hours Ago by > Ron Clutz https://rclutz.com/2021/10/01/plentiful-arctic-ice-sept-2021/ – > – – Send that to the Met Office doomsters [image: 🙄]” >

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