Q&A: La Niña’s back

Posted: October 15, 2021 by oldbrew in climate, ENSO, Natural Variation, weather
Tags: ,

The report speaks of ‘La Niña’s natural cooling’ causing drought and increasing wildfire hazards in some areas. Weren’t such things supposed to be aggravated by alleged human-caused global warming, not by natural cooling effects?
– – –
For the second straight year, the world heads into a new La Niña weather event, says Phys.org.

This would tend to dry out parts of an already parched and fiery American West and boost an already busy Atlantic hurricane season.

Just five months after the end of a La Niña that started in September 2020, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a new cooling of the Pacific is underway.

La Niña’s natural cooling of parts of the Pacific is the flip side of a warmer El Niño pattern and sets in motion changes to the world’s weather for months and sometimes years. But the changes vary from place to place and aren’t certainties, just tendencies.

La Niña tend to cause more agricultural and drought damage to the United States than El Niños and neutral conditions, according to a 1999 study. That study found La Niñas in general cause $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion in damage to the U.S. agriculture.

HOW STRONG AND HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

There’s a 57% chance this will be a moderate La Niña and only 15% that it will be strong, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

He said it is unlikely to be as strong as last year’s because the second year of back-to-back La Niñas usually doesn’t quite measure up to the first.

This La Niña is expected to stretch through spring, Halpert said.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. Bloke down the pub says:

    La Niña results in less cloud formation over the central Pacific, which means that sunlight can penetrate the oceans and cause a rise in sea temps. This will be blamed on climate change, obviously.

  2. skeptikal says:

    I’m predicting this year’s La Niña will be stronger than last year. Expect a brutally cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

  3. oldbrew says:

    October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here!

    ‘La Niña has probably earned silver-elite, frequent-flier status here, as this is the fourth time we’ve written a “La Niña is here” post on the ENSO Blog! (Earlier posts are September 2020, November 2017, and November 2016.) That’s four of the seven-and-a-half years we’ve been standing on this digital street corner yelling about ENSO.’

    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2021-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-here

    Seems to be clustering around the lower end of sunspot activity, in recent times at least.

  4. Phil Salmon says:

    Bloke down the pub

    There’s a lot of subsurface cooling from this fast growing La Niña, so a lot of work for that solar radiation to do:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Sea-sub–surface

    Cloud blocks direct solar heating of the sea by day, but also blocks convective cooling including at night. So cloud effects on heat budget are not straightforward.

  5. oldbrew says:

    NOAA chart of recent El Niño and La Niña activity.

  6. hdhuffman says:

    This post, and its source, are a waste of your valuable brain time (that’s thinking, that is).

    El Nino doesn’t cause global warming, and La Nina doesn’t cause global cooling. They predict the “global mean surface temperature” (GMST) being measured, rather obviously because that measurement is WRONG, it is just an incompetent, misunderstood measure of the El Nino-La Nina (too much weight given to the ocean area, which covers 71% of the Earth, please note). Basically, the global warming scientists have come up with a tautological dependence (in reality, definition) of GMST upon the ocean cycles; that’s why the GMST is so well “explained” by them, and not by atmospheric CO2 variations***.

    It’s all garbage, from incompetent atmospheric scientists. Just think of them all as radical activists, like our self-serving, criminal politicians. Dwelling on their false “specialist” studies is like admiring a BLM-Antifa riot, just because it’s in your face.

    ***Prof. Horst Malberg wrote about the close fit between GMST and Ninoa back in 2009; I cited his paper here, back in 2014.

  7. oldbrew says:

    The dominance of El Niños from about 1977-1998 is obvious in the BEST graphic above.

    Landscheidt proposed that solar Hale cycles (the 22~year magnetic cycle of the sun) are dominated by one or other ENSO oscillation type i.e. El Niño/La Niña, and this would be reflected in global temperature trends for that period. Presumably if neither dominated, then no overall trend for that cycle, or at least no obvious reversal.

  8. tallbloke says:

    Phil S, cloud effects are complicated by the geography they lie above. When you say clouds block convective cooling, I’d be cautious. For example, daytime tropical cumulus cloud above the ocean causes rapid advection and that causes rapid evaporation which convects strongly, building the thunderheads at the tropopause.

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    Winter cloud means 15 degrees C warmer (depends on location – that’s mine).
    Summer cloud means 10 degrees C cooler.

    Clouds are obviously a coupled part of general (hydrologic) circulation. However:

    Cloud narratives look designed for political folks not expected to know much about hydrology and circulation.

    For sensible folks looking past storefront displays:
    A more holistic view actually does make sense – and it’s delightful.

    Years ago “experts” should have given more precise equatorial guidance (and a list of parameters that fits on 1/4 page) — would have saved 6-7 – maybe 10 – years.

    The whole solar system (including our moon) fits what are known as simple sporadic groups. The round-off is exact.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Paul V, write that page and I’d be happy to post it. We need full explanations rather than teasers.

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    I already posted it.

  12. Bloke down the pub says:

    Warmists make a lot of the relative stability of total solar irradiation through the solar cycle, while downplaying the significance of variation in levels of IR cf UV. As UV penetrates deeper into the oceans, I wonder how different the impact of an El Niña is during a period of low solar activity , compared to high activity.

  13. tallbloke says:

    Bloke, we’re about to find out.

  14. oldbrew says:

    *Winter Forecast 2021/2022* October Update –
    Stronger cooling than expected of the La Nina as we head closer to the new Winter season
    By: Andrej Flis

    Published: 17/10/2021

    On the image below you can see the global ocean temperature anomaly in mid-October. It shows colder than normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific regions. This strong negative anomaly with beautiful waveforms is the La Nina. We can also see a cold horseshoe developing in the northeast Pacific ocean, also known as the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

    Read more: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-forecast-2021-2022-usa-europe-update-fa/

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