Study: Fossil fuel plans would far overshoot climate goals

Posted: October 20, 2021 by oldbrew in climate, COP26, Energy, ideology, research, Temperature
Tags: ,

Wyoming coal trains [image credit: energycatalyzer3.com/

Welcome to the real world. The UN loves to tell the world to wind down its fuel-burning ways in a hurry to satisfy the atmospheric trace gas theories of certain ‘climate experts’, but equally viable and affordable alternatives on the scale required are proving hard to find. Energy being ‘clean’ or not is a different issue, but a useful prop when your main argument is floundering.
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The world needs to cut by more than half its production of coal, oil and gas in the coming decade to maintain a chance of keeping global warming from reaching dangerous levels, according to a U.N.-backed study released Wednesday, says Phys.org.

The report published by the U.N. Environment Program found that while governments have made ambitious pledges to curb greenhouse gas emissions, they are still planning to extract double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with the 2015 Paris climate accord’s goal of keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

Even the less ambitious goal of capping global warming at 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times would be overshot, it said.

Climate experts say the world must stop adding to the total amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere by 2050, and that can only be done by drastically reducing the burning of fossil fuels as soon as possible, among other measures.

The report, which was released days before a U.N. climate summit begins Oct. 31 in Glasgow, found most major oil and gas producers—and even some major coal producers—are planning on increasing production until 2030 or even beyond.

It also concluded that the group of 20 major industrialized and emerging economies have invested more into new fossil fuel projects than into clean energy since the start of 2020.

The disparity between climate goals and fossil fuel extraction plans—termed the “production gap”—will widen until at least 2040, the report found.

This would require increasingly steep and extreme measures to meet the Paris emissions goal, UNEP said.

“There is still time to limit long term warming to 1.5°C, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” said the agency’s executive director, Inger Andersen, adding that governments should commit to closing the gap at the Glasgow climate summit.

The report, which had more than 40 researchers contributing, examines 15 major fossil fuel-producing countries.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Gamecock says:

    Will anyone at CoP26 dare mention this dichotomy . . . and end their parties?

    Reps from around the world will go to Glasgow, have a good time (riding around in Olleco* powered Rovers), then go back home and commission another coal plant. UN member states have no intention whatsoever in complying, yet the show goes on.

    Climate Leaders have no followers.

    *’Supplied electric vehicles for the climate change conference will be Jaguar Land Rover vehicles and any generators will run on recycled cooking oil.’

    https://fullfact.org/online/COP26-Tesla-cars/

  2. oldbrew says:

    any generators will run on recycled cooking oil

    What were the cookers running on? What powered the delivery vehicles? Etc. 🙄

  3. tallbloke says:

    “major oil and gas producers—and even some major coal producers—are planning on increasing production until 2030 or even beyond.”

    It is demand led production. It’s needed because otherwise millions perish in the cold and dark. The most worrying aspect to the current situation is getting the feeling the UN and our own government no longer give a fuck how many die as a result of the green ideology they’ve adopted. Which makes you wonder how free and fair the next elections are going to be.

  4. oldbrew says:

    The share of renewables for generation of electricity is expected to reach 30% by 2024. But electricity makes up just 18% of total world energy. Most of the other 82% is heat and transportation.

    Renewable energy is on the rise but still makes up a small share of the TOTAL global energy consumption – about 4%.
    . . .
    Across a large number of energy scenarios and outlooks to 2040, the share of fossil fuels does not get below 70% in any “plausible scenario” (from today’s 80%). As global energy consumption will increase massively in the coming decades, such a development is very far from solving the global challenge of climate change.
    [bold added]

    https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/climate-change/energy/share-of-renewable-energy-in-the-world/story
    – – –
    Renewables – 4% ! ‘Solving climate change’ isn’t going to happen that way 😂

  5. Phoenix44 says:

    Any production not consumed doesn’t matter. So the problem is consumption. But that is proving very hard to reduce (to stop increasing in fact) so the UN and its fascist minions (like Carney) go after production instead as businesses are much easier to threaten and intimidate and regulate out of business than voters.

    The anti-democratic nature of this is obvious to everyone but of course most people don’t care about democracy if the dictators are doing what they want.

  6. oldbrew says:

    How Boris’s £1TRILLION green dream could hit YOU:
    Britons face MORE taxes, a 50% hike on their heating bills, paying £10k or more for a heat pump, up to £9k a wall for insulation – and owners of inefficient homes may struggle to get a mortgage

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10109113/How-Boriss-1TRILLION-green-dream-hit-YOU.html
    – – –
    There won’t be enough heat pumps or people to fit them, but then there won’t be enough willing customers either.

  7. oldbrew says:

    tallbloke says: October 20, 2021 at 12:16 pm
    – – –
    Human sacrifice to the weather gods was supposed to belong to superstition and history, but they could end up bringing it back with ‘green’ crap 😣

  8. Gamecock says:

    ‘The anti-democratic nature of this is obvious to everyone but of course most people don’t care about democracy if the dictators are doing what they want.’

    Amen. Most people LIKE fascism. They just argue about what the government should or should not be doing, never whether government has the authority to do what they want.

    E.g., a few years ago, the U.S. made the tyrannical move of banning 100W light bulbs. Not 75 or 200W, just 100. Discussions ensued over whether or not the bulbs should be banned; no one ever challenged the government’s authority to do it. (The government retains the authority to do it, or anything else they want to do.)

  9. oldbrew says:

    Burning CO2-laden biomass is rarely seen as a problem by the climate miserablists, despite their so-called climate *emergency* supposedly requiring drastic reduction of CO2 by any means.

  10. oldmanK says:

    Some Sunday musings:

    oldbrew says above “Human sacrifice to the weather gods was supposed to belong to superstition and history,—“.
    In the prelude to the LIA, this from wiki ‘Chimor’ “The burial is dated at 1400-1450 A.D. Anthropologist Haagen Klaus speculates that Chimú might have turned to children when the sacrifice of adults was not enough to stop torrential rain and flooding caused by El Niño.[28] In August 2019 the archaeological team working at this site revealed that the bodies of 227 victims, aged between four and 14, had been excavated, further establishing this as the largest-ever known example of child sacrifice.”

    One may revisit oldbrew says: May 2, 2015 at 12:32 pm
    “These appear to be linked to triple conjunctions of Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune, and are thought to occur every 1470 years. There was a close J-S-N conjunction in 590 AD, and 590 AD – (2 x 1470y) = 2350 BC.”
    590AD + 1470 = 2060 (1470= 3/2*980, the Eddy)

    But as the Chimu discovered, they (climatic changes) can start early. But any religious thinking based on human sacrifice had always failed in the past.

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