Residents in Wales coastal village dubbed the UK’s first ‘climate refugees’

Posted: November 11, 2021 by oldbrew in climate, government, Measurement, modelling, predictions, sea levels
Tags:

Doomed by predictions it seems. Although sea levels have been very slowly rising at a more or less known rate in many places around the world since about the mid-19th Century, predictions of an accelerating rate in the next decades are based on climate models, guesses at government climate policies and attribution of vast powers to trace gases. ‘Scientists say…’
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Like many others who came to Fairbourne, Stuart Eves decided the coastal village in northern Wales would be home for life when he moved here 26 years ago, says USA Today (from AP).

He fell in love with the peaceful, slow pace of small village life in this community of about 700 residents nestled between the rugged mountains and the Irish Sea.

“I wanted somewhere my children can have the same upbringing as I had, so they can run free,” said Eves, 72, who built a caravan park in the village that he still runs with his son. “You’ve got the sea, you’ve got the mountains. It’s just a stunning place to live.”

That changed suddenly in 2014, when authorities identified Fairbourne as the first coastal community in the U.K. to be at high risk of flooding due to climate change.

Predicting faster sea level rises and more frequent and extreme storms due to global warming, the government said it could only afford to keep defending the village for another 40 years.

Officials said that by 2054, it would no longer by safe or sustainable to live in Fairbourne.

Authorities therefore have been working with villagers on the process of so-called “managed realignment” — essentially, to move them away and abandon the village to the encroaching sea.

Overnight, house prices in Fairbourne nosedived. Residents were dubbed the U.K.’s first “climate refugees.” Many were left shocked and angry by national headlines declaring their whole village would be “decommissioned.” Seven years on, most of their questions about their future remain unanswered.

“They’ve doomed the village, and now they’ve got to try to rehome the people. That’s 450 houses,” said Eves, who serves as chair of the local community council. “If they want us out by 2054, then they’ve got to have the accommodation to put us in.”

Authorities therefore have been working with villagers on the process of so-called “managed realignment” — essentially, to move them away and abandon the village to the encroaching sea.

Overnight, house prices in Fairbourne nosedived. Residents were dubbed the U.K.’s first “climate refugees.” Many were left shocked and angry by national headlines declaring their whole village would be “decommissioned.” Seven years on, most of their questions about their future remain unanswered.
. . .
Natural Resources Wales, the government-sponsored organization responsible for the sea defenses in Fairbourne, said the village is particularly vulnerable because it faces multiple flooding risks.

Built in the 1850s on a low-lying saltmarsh, Fairbourne already lies beneath sea level at high spring tide. During storms, the tidal level is more than 1.5 meters (5 feet) above the level of the village.

Scientists say U.K. sea levels have risen about 10 centimeters (4 inches) in the past century. Depending on greenhouse gas emissions and actions that governments take, the predicted rise is 70 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. Chaswarnertoo says:

    All they had to do was to look at Harlech castle sea gate.

  2. LeedsChris says:

    What is so crazy about this story is why the journalists don’t go a few miles up the coast to Harlech – the location of one of Wales’ World Heritage Site castles. Guess what – the castle was built 700 years ago and, at that time, was located right on the edge of the sea, with its own port for supplies. Gas forward to today and the Castle is a quarter mile inland – that’s how far the sea is away from the castle walls. If sea level rise was a general issue on this stretch of coast how can this happen? The reality is it’s nothing to do with sea level rise either at Fairbourne or Harlech – it’s regular coastal erosion and deposition and at Fairbourne you have a spit sticking out into the sea that is bound to be a transient feature on geological terms.

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    classic half truth that’s a lie. Welcome to the Church of AGW, aka the Climate Caliphate.

  4. *You wrote:* *Doomed by predictions it seems. Although sea levels have been very slowly rising at a more or less known rate in many places around the world since about the mid-19th Century, predictions of an accelerating rate in the next decades are based on climate models, guesses at government policies and attribution of vast powers to trace gases. ‘Scientists say…’*

    Look at Actual Data that is Most Accurate: The Atomic Clocks have measured time accurately since 1972. A rising sea level would be reducing ice in polar regions near the spin axis and increasing water height around the equator which would increase the inertia of the earth and slow down the spin rate, making days longer. More and more leap seconds would have been added each decade, the opposite has happened. Days have been shorter since 1972 so overall sea level has dropped.

    *You wrote:* *Although sea levels have been very slowly rising at a more or less known rate.*

    *They have no clue as to the rate, they have sea level going in the wrong direction, Length of Day is Reliable Evidence of that. *

    *Interested in your thoughts about posting this fact, in your own words, think on this. *

    Alex Pope

    On Thu, Nov 11, 2021 at 4:45 PM Tallbloke’s Talkshop wrote:

    > oldbrew posted: “Doomed by predictions it seems. Although sea levels have > been very slowly rising at a more or less known rate in many places around > the world since about the mid-19th Century, predictions of an accelerating > rate in the next decades are based on climate mo” >

  5. Again: Sea Level has risen as we came out of the Little Ice Age, but there is Length of Day Proof that Sea Level has fallen since 1972.
    Open Arctic Ocean and Open Antarctic Ocean provides the evaporation and snowfall and sequestering of new ice on the old ice that rebuilds the volume and weight of the sequestered ice even while the Glaciers and Ice sheets are retreating at the edges and tails.

    It will take several hundreds of years for the increased volume and weight to cause the ice to spread faster than the loss at the edges and tails. Static Climate Energy Balance does not work, that never includes ice. Ice Core Records show what happens in the Dynamic Energy Balance. Polar Region IR out in warmest times removes the energy from the climate systems in the formation of ice that will do no cooling by thawing during these warmest times. IR out in warmest times cools the Climate systems during the coldest times by thawing as it is pushed into turbulent saltwater. Sea ice is formed and maintained during the times that abundant ice is pushed into the oceans, preventing evaporation and snowfall in the cold times which causes a net ice loss all the time the Polar Oceans are dominated with SEA ICE. There is no possible static neutral stable state, the temperature always screams up or down when cold turns warm and when warm turns cold.

    Sea Level is difficult to measure and difficult to average, they can calculate anything and it cannot be proved right or wrong.

    Some places are sinking, some places are rising, there are 60 year cycles that matter, there are alignment of planets that matter, storms matter.

    Length of Day is the very best way to determine if overall Sea Level is going up or down.

    Arctic ice cycles and Antarctic ice cycles work this way in the same bounds but not in phase with each other. The number of warm and cold cycles in Greenland ice core records is different from the number of warm and cold cycles in Antarctic ice core records. Over the most recent ten thousand years, Antarctic has cycled within the same bounds, but Greenland has cycled within cooling bounds.

    Greenland ice core records show colder now than during most of the last ten thousand years.

    Over the most recent ten thousand years, Milankovitch has reduced solar energy into the north and increased solar energy into the south. The requirements for sequestered ice in the north has reduced and the requirements for sequestered ice in the south has increased.

  6. oldbrew posted: “Doomed by predictions it seems.

    The governments will buy the property and settle the residents elsewhere.

    Then the rich politicians who promoted this change will buy or be given the property and they will build mansions and resorts and get even richer in the process. Save this and read it in a few decades in the future. If the people decide to stay, and if they decide to not worry too much until there is actual evidence, they may likely have hundreds or thousands of years.

    Rich people scare people into moving so they can live by the seashore.

    Check worldwide, how many of these people who are scaring everyone, actually are buying more property for themselves close to the sea.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Intro: sea levels have been very slowly rising at a more or less known rate in many places around the world since about the mid-19th Century — ‘many places’ is not ‘everywhere’.
    – – –
    NOAA shows US sea levels rising nearly everywhere except the Gulf of Alaska, where they’re falling.

    The sea level trends measured by tide gauges that are presented here are local relative sea level (RSL) trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference on land.

    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html
    (see graphic – USA map)

  8. oldmanK says:

    Not related to Wales, or any other place for that matter. Jumping from link to link I came across an interesting graph posted in correspondence; link below.

    It gives ‘Mean sea level’, but my question here is ‘relative to what?’ since geological change over the millennia has resulted in several sea level change at sites that are either sinking or rising. Geologic change is a continuous process. Within 10 miles radius of where I am the changes over those 8kyrs of the graph, have been enormous; some rising, some sinking, some rotation, and some drowned deep under.

    One interesting colour trail (pink) in graph is from Jameson et al 2012 Qatar. The squiggly trail from 2kbce to 1kce has the Eddy cycle frequency.

    See also https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/melting-of-polar-ice-shifting-earth-itself-not-just-sea-levels/

  9. erichux says:

    Interesting that the quoted rate of rise over the past century is 1mm per year, which is 55.6% of the global rise (Tide Gauge) and 31.3% (Satellite) and which added 6.7% of the reported storm surge.

    Using the same rate the real world likely sea level rise is 7.9 cm which will add an extra 5.3% to the Storm Surge.

    Weather, not climate, is the threat.

  10. Tom Williams says:

    There has been no Arctic ice cap since 2013 – oops! That was wrong and now it’s going to be 2035 or 2050! When that doesn’t happen – another year will be chosen.
    Air pollution is a problem that needs attention. The “climate” crisis is creating a false antagonism between nations and different groups of people that is unnecessary.

  11. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    There was a TV programme on the other day about the Lincolnshire coast erosion. They said this was due to climate change. Later on they mentioned how the coast had been eroding since Roman times and mentioned some villages that had been lost in Roman times and Medieval times.

  12. Russ Wood says:

    I’ve walked along the sea wall, about six feet up from the beach. And what’s going to happen to the golf course that’s slightly BELOW the level of the village? Or to the West Wales railway line that runs past the village? The village of Fairbourne has been there for over 50 years – don’t you think the inhabitants might have noticed something – like wet feet? Mutter, mutter, models!

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