It’s weather wars as the Met Office forecasts mild winter while the BBC predicts a big freeze

Posted: November 21, 2021 by oldbrew in Forecasting, humour, MET office, weather
Tags: , ,


Place bets now! Of course there could well be bits of both. The Met Office says its offering is ‘consistent with a warming climate’, but there was a very cold winter spell only 11 years ago, around the time of the last solar minimum.
– – –
Most know from bitter experience that meteorology is far from an exact science, but Britain’s two leading weather forecasting services have given completely contradictory predictions on what we can expect this winter, reports the Daily Mail.

The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh.

Experts last night described the opposing long-range forecasts as unparalleled and they risk causing havoc for businesses such as energy suppliers, transport firms, supermarkets and airlines which rely on forecasts to plan ahead.

The Met Office’s three-month outlook from November to the end of January says: ‘A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one. Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.’ Its computer forecast model shows a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February.

But rival forecaster DTN, formerly known as MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’.

The firm, which won the BBC’s multi-million-pound weather contract from the Met Office three years ago, said: ‘This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.’

Continued here.

Comments
  1. […] It’s weather wars as the Met Office forecasts mild winter while the BBC predicts a big fr… […]

  2. Saighdear says:

    Dunno about either of them: taken a leaf out of Joe Bastardi’s book of wisdom for my longer range ideas of the near future. Satellite images also help me just look and watch. Watch? huh if anyone gets the chance to watch free-2-view European stations ( generally German) and can miss the climate change plugs in everything ( subset of bbc perhaps? ) their Charts are nearly always different from british. So where are the REAL Cold / Warm fronts?
    I’m about to clean the chimney – seeing Fluesies……

  3. Gamecock says:

    ‘Experts last night described the opposing long-range forecasts as unparalleled and they risk causing havoc for businesses such as energy suppliers, transport firms, supermarkets and airlines WHICH RELY ON FORECASTS TO PLAN AHEAD.’

    Nah. Not really. They aren’t that foolish. The forecasts are for entertainment purposes.

  4. tom0mason says:

    An entertaining look at many weather models and modelled weather parameter by Gavin Partridge ( bit of a model maniac!), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJquu2wcGU0

  5. Curious George says:

    The climate forecast for year 2100 would be most welcome.

  6. oldbrew says:

    The climate forecast for year 2100 would be most welcome.

    Certainly sir. Met Office or the other one?

  7. skeptikal says:

    I’m betting on a very cold winter, driven by La Nina and a couple of other factors.

    My prediction is bolstered by the fact that the Met Office hardly ever gets their long term predictions right.

  8. pameladragon says:

    What does Piers Corbyn say? His accuracy is quite good.

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    The Met Office has a pretty poor record and seems to have been running a bit hot for years. When they provided the BBC with forecasts the 3-5 days out was over-warm very often and almost never over-cold.

    The funny thing is, even if one of these forecasts is right, it will almost certainly be for the wrong reasons.

  10. oldbrew says:

    pameladragon says: What does Piers Corbyn say?
    – – –
    Piers Corbyn runs a payment forecasting service, but his website has this:
    ‘The January forecast is very very important says Piers Corbyn’.

    http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact37

  11. pameladragon says:

    Too bad Piers won’t share a few tidbits about his winter forecast, especially if he is going for cold and snowy!

  12. tallbloke says:

    Pamela, send Piers some money for the forecast. He needs it to pay off his WuFlu protest fines!

  13. oldbrew says:

    Big freeze already here…

    Dozens of ships stuck in Arctic as ice freezes early in reverse of recent warming winters

    Shipping firms blame the Russian Met office for a forecast that failed to predict the early ice

    By Nataliya Vasilyeva,
    RUSSIA CORRESPONDENT, MOSCOW
    22 November 2021

    Viktor Gil, captain of The Mikhail Somov, one of the ships stranded along the Northern Sea Route, told the Tass news agency that the situation was “quite dire”.

    “The ice is up to one and a half metres thick here,” he said, but added that the crew had supplies enough to last until an ice-breaker reaches them in around a week.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/dozens-ships-stuck-arctic-ice-freezes-early-reverse-recent-warming/

  14. Gamecock says:

    One assumes the Russian Met office has no liability for its forecasts.

    Use them at your own risk. And one wonders which is cheaper, government forecasts, or the Farmers’ Almanac?

  15. oldbrew says:

    NOVEMBER 24, 2021
    La Niña has been declared. Why should we care?

    It is quite common that La Niña occurs two years in a row, a case that we are seeing now.

    From 22 La Niña appearances from 1958 to 2020, 10 of those developed in the year following a La Niña condition.
    . . .
    For La Niña, the heat accumulation and the associated air-sea interactions tend to be more sluggish, allowing for another cold event to develop.

    https://phys.org/news/2021-11-la-nina-declared.html
    – – –
    Which only leaves 2 of those 22 that weren’t a back-to-back pair.

  16. […] It’s weather wars as the Met Office forecasts mild winter while the BBC predicts a big fr… […]

  17. […] Keld, after heavy snowfall.’ It’s still only November, and the Met Office has forecast a mild winter. In fact parts of Scotland and the English North East also had wintry conditions with all kinds of […]

  18. oldbrew says:

    NOAA sounds like the UK Met Office here…

    ‘Given typical La Niña conditions during winter months, plus the impact of a warming climate, the odds favor above normal temperatures across most of the contiguous United States. Below-normal temperatures are expected in only a relatively small portion’

    https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/what-weather-should-we-expect-this-winter

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