Met Office promotes its climate projections for heat in UK cities

Posted: November 24, 2021 by oldbrew in alarmism, COP26, MET office, modelling, predictions, Temperature
Tags:

Warm day in London


Much talk of ‘extreme’ temperatures in UK cities in this Met Office blog post, although there aren’t any examples. There was a significant heatwave in 1976 and a few warmer than usual spells in the early 2000s, but talk of ‘frequency’ of such events seems premature to say the least. But the Met Office feels sure its computer modelling will prove to be accurate, and that weather trends are now largely determined by human activities.
– – –
With the recent COP26 focussing heavily on the chances of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C, it might be easy to forget that we are still committed to further climate change and a resulting increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

The impact of this will be felt increasingly in cities, where the majority of the world’s population now live, where much of our businesses, industry and infrastructure are concentrated, and where extreme temperatures are exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

With many cities across the UK declaring climate emergencies, city councils and other decision-makers are asking how they can use increasingly refined and detailed climate projections to better understand the impact of extreme heat on urban communities.

The Met Office’s high-resolution projections from UKCP provide some of the most accurate climate modelling of heat in urban areas available.

Dr Will Keat is a Met Office climate scientist who has studied these new projections. He said: “Our most detailed climate projections over the UK also contain a much more realistic representation of cities and other urban areas than used previously. We have found that these projections provide a marked improvement when investigating how extreme temperatures will change in UK cities when compared to less detailed models.”

The high resolution projections are being used by scientists working with local authorities to understand the effect these changes will have on their cities.

Dr Tyrone Dunbar is the Met Office Scientific Manager for urban climate services. He said: “The concept of urban heat islands – where urban locations retain more heat than surrounding areas – has long been understood. By combining our higher resolution projections with detailed information about where vulnerable people and buildings are in cities, we are helping local authorities and planners gain a far more detailed picture of the impacts their residents and visitors will increasingly face in future.”

Continued here.

Comments
  1. Ilma630 says:

    Notice how Dr Keat says “projections” and not “predictions” so he can’t be held liable for when they don’t work out as predicted. Same old, same old…

  2. oldbrew says:

    One of their city ‘projections’ is here…

    LEEDS CLIMATE CHANGE – The Science
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/spf/leeds-factsheet-1-of-2-the-science-v0.2.pdf

    See ‘the City Packs’ link in the full blog post for more. The pack proclaims:

    The Met Office uses computer models
    to simulate decades into the future.
    These models tell us that increasing
    greenhouse gas concentrations in the
    atmosphere leads to an increase in
    global temperature – the basis for
    climate change.

    – – –
    The models tell them what they were programmed to tell them.

  3. Ilma630 says:

    Yep, GIGO!

  4. Ilma630 says:

    “To provide the best available information, multiple variations of the Met Office’s latest global climate model are used to simulate the plausible future climate outcomes – this is known as a climate model ensemble.”, or to put it in another way “we don’t know”.

  5. NeilC says:

    The Met Office are right, UHI is caused by human activity.

  6. Gamecock says:

    Hilarious.

    ‘With many cities across the UK declaring climate emergencies’

    By vote. Not measurements. Politics. Not science.

    ‘city councils and other decision-makers are asking how they can use increasingly refined and detailed climate projections to better understand the impact of extreme heat on urban communities.’

    One wonders what ‘refined and detailed’ is supposed to mean. I guess it’s meant to convince people they can believe it. Predicting the future has become more ‘refined and detailed.’

    ‘The Met Office’s high-resolution projections from UKCP provide some of the most accurate climate modelling of heat in urban areas available.’

    Note that ‘most accurate’ doesn’t mean ‘accurate.’

    ‘We have found that these projections provide a marked improvement when investigating how extreme temperatures will change in UK cities when compared to less detailed models.’

    “We made it up with more accuracy.”

    ‘The high resolution projections are being used by scientists working with local authorities to understand the effect these changes will have on their cities.’

    They are scaring ‘city councils and other decision-makers.’ Is that why you have the Met Office?

  7. Gamecock says:

    “Model ensemble” is the greatest affront to science in the 21st century.

  8. Phoenix44 says:

    “Our most detailed climate projections over the UK also contain a much more realistic representation of cities and other urban areas than used previously. We have found that these projections provide a marked improvement when investigating how extreme temperatures will change in UK cities when compared to less detailed models.”

    What a confused load of gibberish. The forecasts are more detailed but that doesn’t make them more realistic. Nor if they are inaccurate can they be a marked improvement. A wrong forecast is useless. Spurious accuracy once again from the increasingly unhinged Met Office.

  9. Gamecock says:

    ‘The Met Office’s high-resolution projections from UKCP provide some of the most accurate climate modelling of heat in urban areas available.’

    That a government agency said this should lead to immediate defunding.

    The by line is Met Office Press Office. The intellect of a turnip.

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