Flawed Climate Models? Arctic Ocean Started Getting Warmer Decades Earlier Than Thought

Posted: November 25, 2021 by oldbrew in Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, research, sea ice, Temperature
Tags: , ,

Fram Strait is the only deep passage between the Arctic and World Oceans [credit: Bdushaw @ Wikipedia]


Twenty six ‘COP’s and much of the world still claims to believe in, and frames its energy and various other policies according to, flawed climate models? If ‘rapid’ Arctic warming was already happening 120 years ago at an early stage of industrialisation what was, or were, the cause(s)?
– – –
The Arctic Ocean has been getting warmer since the beginning of the 20th century – decades earlier than records suggest – due to warmer water flowing into the delicate polar ecosystem from the Atlantic Ocean.

An international group of researchers reconstructed the recent history of ocean warming at the gateway to the Arctic Ocean in a region called the Fram Strait, between Greenland and Svalbard, says SciTech Daily.

Using the chemical signatures found in marine microorganisms, the researchers found that the Arctic Ocean began warming rapidly at the beginning of the last century as warmer and saltier waters flowed in from the Atlantic – a phenomenon called Atlantification – and that this change likely preceded the warming documented by modern instrumental measurements.

Since 1900, the ocean temperature has risen by approximately 2 degrees Celsius, while sea ice has retreated and salinity has increased.

The results, reported in the journal Science Advances, provide the first historical perspective on Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean and reveal a connection with the North Atlantic that is much stronger than previously thought.

The connection is capable of shaping Arctic climate variability, which could have important implications for sea-ice retreat and global sea level rise as the polar ice sheets continue to melt.
. . .
The researchers used geochemical and ecological data from ocean sediments to reconstruct the change in water column properties over the past 800 years.

They precisely dated sediments using a combination of methods and looked for diagnostic signs of Atlantification, like change in temperature and salinity.

“When we looked at the whole 800-year timescale, our temperature and salinity records look pretty constant,” said co-lead author Dr. Tesi Tommaso from the Institute of Polar Sciences of the National Research Council in Bologna.

“But all of a sudden at the start of the 20th century, you get this marked change in temperature and salinity – it really sticks out.”

Full article here.

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    The research suggests it had a lot to do with the end of the Little Ice Age.

  2. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Flawed climate models? But teh Siense is settled! 😇

  3. […] Flawed Climate Models? Arctic Ocean Started Getting Warmer Decades Earlier Than Thought […]

  4. gbaikie says:

    “The African humid period (also known by other names) is a climate period in Africa during the late Pleistocene and Holocene geologic epochs, when northern Africa was wetter than today. The covering of much of the Sahara desert by grasses, trees and lakes was caused by changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun; ” – wiki
    Milankovitch cycles:
    “The angle of the Earth’s axial tilt with respect to the orbital plane (the obliquity of the ecliptic) varies between 22.1° and 24.5°, over a cycle of about 41,000 years. The current tilt is 23.44°, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt last reached its maximum in 8,700 BCE. ” – wiki
    8,700 BCE our axis tilt: 24.5 degree
    Now: 23.44
    Axial precession:
    “In about 13,000 years, the north pole will be tilted toward the Sun when the Earth is at perihelion” –
    wiki
    Currently south pole tilted towards Sun at perihelion
    “Axial precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of 25,771.5 years.” -wiki
    Or 12,000 years ago the south pole wasn’t tilted towards sun at perihelion
    “West African sediments additionally record the African humid period, an interval between 16,000 and 6,000 years ago during which Africa was much wetter than now.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum

    Or over 5000 years. we reached peak Holocene. And we have had gradual cool trend for 5000 years
    with warming and cooling periods, our last cooling period was very cold, now we recovering from Little Ice Age which may dipped down average global air temperature of 13 C and we building a lot glacial ice, which began to rapidly reduce starting around 1850 AD when it widely considered to be the ending of the Little Ice Age which lasted for centuries. And during LIA, sea levels fell and entire ocean cooled. Or our average ocean is somewhere around 3.5 C and the ocean may have been .1 or .2 C cooler during the LIA.
    Our cold ocean is reason we have been in 34 million year Ice Age, called the Late Cenozoic Ice Age.
    Which is also called a global icehouse climate. Or anytime Earth has had Ice cap and cold ocean it’s
    called a global icehouse climate and Earth has had quite few them. and Earth had warm period which are called greenhouse climate- which has warmer oceans.
    And we had the coldest ocean of our Late Cenozoic Ice Age, during about last 2 million years and during this time Greenland kept glacial ice sheet during the warmest interglacial periods {as we kept it during the Holocene interglacial period}
    Anyhow, during Holocene optimum, we had ice free arctic ocean and a green Sahara Desert {and many other world deserts {other than Antarctica} also wetter.
    And most would agree than greener Sahara or an ice free arctic ocean are a cause or at least related
    to a warmer world. And cold world has more deserts- we have about 1/3 of total land area deserts, and during Glacial period we will have more deserts {but probably not as much 1/2 of the land area-unless one re-defines permanent sea ice as being a “land area”}.
    Anyhow one might ask which does more warming less desert or less polar sea ice.
    Though if you were calling ice sea ice a desert, then question could about where the desert “land areas” are and how big they are.
    But my view is simpler, global average air depends upon how warm the entire ocean is, a warmer ocean will prevent sea ice. And I would predict that during Holocene Optimum, the Earth’s ocean were warmer.
    And that requires that to leave the last glaciation period, the ocean must have become warmer, while the land was quite cold.
    Or it takes very long time to cool or to warm the ocean.

  5. Pete Rogers says:

    Instead of taking IPCC on in a way that their flock will cheer them for simply scoffing at – why not drop the “bomb”, it is charged by something which is not theoretical so scoffing will be harder to get away with.
    The “bomb” is that if it was under less pressure the atmosphere would be cooler because of Charles’ Law, therefore gravity is responsible for ATE and the claim that it is because of the GE collapses and so does the AGW therefore!
    This argument cannot be refuted only supressed, but anybody in a physics class will see that there is no escape from this because Charles’ Law ia a Law of Physics and cannot be violated – which is the coup de grace.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Pete Rogers – climate alarmists have been getting away with the Venus ‘runaway greenhouse effect’ claim for years, despite 92 bar pressure at the surface.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Greenland Ice Sheet Melting No Faster Than Last Century
    NOVEMBER 25, 2021

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/11/25/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-no-faster-than-last-century/

    No correlation with CO2 levels either.

  8. Gamecock says:

    ‘due to warmer water flowing into the delicate polar ecosystem from the Atlantic Ocean’

    OMFG. Not the DELICATE ecosystem crap again.

    ‘The connection is capable of shaping Arctic climate variability, which could have important implications for sea-ice retreat and global sea level rise as the polar ice sheets continue to melt.’

    Stopped reading. These morons-in-charge don’t know that sea ice melt has DOUBLE OUGHT ZERO effect on sea level! They are not fit for purpose.

    Drilled down. The science.org report mentions no such thing. It is in the SciTech Daily report, a product of Cambridge University (!). What a clown show!

  9. They wrote:
    The connection is capable of shaping Arctic climate variability, which could have important implications for sea-ice retreat and global sea level rise as the polar ice sheets continue to melt.

    I am really disgusted with the stupidity of all this Arctic Sea Ice Retreat linked to Sea Level Rise.

    When the Arctic Ocean is thawed, there is more evaporation and snowfall and ice accumulation increase on Greenland, this is recorded in Greenland Ice Core records. Sea Level falls when the polar oceans are thawed.

    When the Arctic Ocean is frozen, there is less evaporation and snowfall and ice accumulation increase on Greenland, this is recorded in Greenland Ice Core records. Sea Level rises when the polar oceans are frozen.

    Does no one out there really study and try to understand actual data?

    Polar sea ice thaws and the evaporation and snowfall rebuild the ice sheets on the land.
    Polar sea ice freezes and stops evaporation and snowfall and ice sheets on land deplete.
    This is plain to see in ice core records.

    As to the People In Power:
    I know that some of you just do not understand.
    I know that some of you are profiting from the green energy scams with the huge subsidies and tax credits and your personal profits are much more important than a proper understanding of self correcting natural climate change.
    During the February freeze and power and water outage in Texas, I would like to know how many Texas Politicians in Washington and Austin, made money and how many lost money during the time that electric power was sold at orders of magnitude more that standard rates. Follow the Money. As far as I can tell, the majority in Washington and Austin are after personal profit and power, nothing to do with making the power grid work for the Counties, Cities, Communities, Neighborhoods, or just he general population.

  10. Look at the Data, it is clearly self correcting. Over the most recent ten thousand years 40 watts per meter squared, approximately, decreased in the Northern Hemisphere and Increased in the Southern Hemisphere and that did not change Antarctic Ice Core Bounds but did reduce Greenland Ice Core Bounds a small amount.

  11. Phoenix44 says:

    So significant changes in stuff like the Arctic can happen without warming.

    Haven’t they just disproved anthropogenic climate change?

  12. oldbrew says:

    When the ‘Arctic Ocean Started Getting Warmer’ the energy to cause that came from somewhere, obviously.

    As it was a rapid process (“But all of a sudden at the start of the 20th century, you get this marked change in temperature and salinity – it really sticks out”), CO2 is automatically ruled out as a primary cause.

    So unless or until the previous cause(s) — whatever they were — can somehow be ruled out, all arguments in favour of CO2 strongly influencing temperatures are conjecture only.

  13. oldbrew says:

    CNN Reports Study Questioning Climate Change Models On Thanksgiving Day When Few Are Following News

    “Fake News’ In Action
    Nov 26, 2021

    https://lidblog.com/questioning-climate-change-models/
    – – –
    At least it got a mention.

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