Solar influences show up in sea level rise, El Niño events and oceanic climatic cycles 

Posted: December 30, 2021 by oldbrew in Cycles, ENSO, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, research, sea levels
Tags: ,

This won’t exactly be music to the ears of the climate alarmist tendency, which prefers to claim that people somehow dictate the course of climate variations.
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The Sun’s energy affects our climate but its influence is often ignored as changes in its intensity are very small. Its effect might be subtle but over decadal periods it adds up to being significant as a series of recent papers show, says Net Zero Watch.

Scientists from the University of California, Irvine, the National Taiwan Normal University, and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, find that the 11-year solar cycle has a significant correlation with sea surface temperature variations in the North-eastern Pacific.

They believe that the Sun’s influence is first seen and then amplified in the lower stratosphere, but it then alters the circulation in the troposphere which then affects the temperature of the ocean.

They note that the changes have a structure similar to that of the Pacific meridional mode – an interaction between trade winds and ocean evaporation which is an important trigger of the central Pacific (CP) type of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

It seems that the 11-year solar cycle modulates the CP ENSO and, in particular, is associated with more CP El Niño events during the active phase of the cycle and more La Niña events when the solar cycle undergoes a downturn.

The solar influence is also apparent in other aspects of airflow in the tropics. A team from Oxford University, Aarhus University, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Imperial College London, and the Grantham Institute, of Imperial College London, recently provided observational evidence that the solar cycle affects atmospheric circulation over the Pacific on decadal timescales finding that there is a reduction of east–west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following few years.

This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific as well as an eastward shift of precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. It’s an effect that shows up in some climate models that use simulations considering only solar irradiance variations.

A Missed Connection

Another recent study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Niño to La Niña conditions suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth. If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Niño and La Niña events.

According to Scott McIntosh, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the paper: “The scientific community has been unclear on the role that solar variability plays in influencing weather and climate events here on Earth. This study shows there’s reason to believe it absolutely does and why the connection may have been missed in the past.”

The paper does not examine what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but that there are several possibilities such as the influence of the Sun’s magnetic field on the incidence of cosmic rays that bombard Earth.

A team from the Australian National University, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Australian Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes find a solar influence on the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – an important pattern of climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with major regional climate impacts.

Full article here.

  1. Paul Vaughan says:

    A curiosity: No solar-climate narrative is consistent with solar-climate observations.
    And: There is no way to correct this.

  2. Phoenix44 says:

    We persist in trying to find simple correlations in complex non-linear systems that are not necessarily stable at the time of change of any input. And we persist in trying to find rhythmic cycles rather than complex interactions that may mimic cycles sometimes. It is a reductionist approach that is certain to fail, as macroeconomics fails time after time.

    Physics has its three body problem but climate is an n body problem where we don’t even know what n is.

  3. oldbrew says:

    According to NRDC water vapour is a ‘heat-trapping pollutant’…

    Q: What causes global warming?

    A: Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO2) and other air pollutants collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced off the earth’s surface. Normally this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can last for years to centuries in the atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet to get hotter. These heat-trapping pollutants—specifically carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and synthetic fluorinated gases—are known as greenhouse gases, and their impact is called the greenhouse effect. [bold added]
    – – –
    Anyone who believes that is unlikely to be too interested in any solar effects.

    Seems to be a popular phrase with alarmists…

    DECEMBER 29, 2021
    Three large natural gas plants would wipe out climate gains from recent shutdowns of coal-fired plants in Illinois

    Two weeks after Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a law billed as the nation’s most aggressive mandate for clean energy, the Chicago Democrat’s administration tentatively approved a major new source of heat-trapping pollution. [bold added]

  4. Gamecock says:

    Anyone who calls CO2 a pollutant is “Incompetent, Irrelevant and Immaterial.”

    ‘A: Since the Industrial Revolution, the global annual temperature has increased in total by a little more than 1 degree Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Between 1880—the year that accurate recordkeeping began—and 1980, it rose on average by 0.07 degrees Celsius’

    Tony Heller produced a map of the global distribution of weather stations in the late 19th century, 1891-1920. Vast portions of Asia, Africa, South America, central Australia and Antarctica, and, of course, the oceans, had NO STATIONS AT ALL. The notion that 1880 was a landmark is ludicrous.

    We know nothing. Global temperature measurement was not possible until the satellite era, ~1979.

    NRDC’s Global Warming 101 reads like a children’s fairy tale.

  5. Paul Vaughan says:

    It’s not that we know nothing. It’s that a narrative isn’t sensible if it doesn’t conform to solar-climate observations. The observations have not changed, nor has the unwillingness to accept them. It’s an obfuscation campaign – same as always. Those who accept 2+2=5 live happily ever after.

  6. bobweber says:

    Copycats… I was there first with attribution to the solar cycle influence on the ocean, see inset (f), for the NW Pacific warming, from my 2018 AGU poster. To their credit they put some numbers on it…

  7. brianrlcatt says:

    You will see my paper covers other potential causes of El Nino that I have studied in the context of ice age, basically interglacial warming event causation. . The idea that there can be only one is simply false.

    Clue number 1. The oceans drive climate. Why do the oceans in that region warm? The event is characterised by poor fishing and that is attributed to a warming of the currents rising from the deep around the Galapagos hot spot, where they cannot have been warmed by the Sun. There is not one down there. What else? …… Go figure.

    I avoided more than a casual reference to this in my paper, because none of the gravitational cycles from MIlankovitch orbital forcing were remotely near the periods of a few years.

    Then I realised Lunar orbits hada significant effect on solid tides and might vary on shorter periods, hence change the 1m solid tides we currently observe every day. If there is a weak area of tectonic boundaries this can affect more than elsewhere…..

    Early days but….. It seems the Lunar eccentricity happens, but I have yet to uncover the period and relative power of the different eccentricities. The big one seems to be 18.6 years, (Canvey Island, Thames Barrier peaks) but there are several, and they are changing. Probably.

    It seems there are many lunar eccentricity frequencies uncovered in the temperature profile, some of which will be false, or harmonics of others.

    My interest is in those that directly track the Lunar eccentricity cycles, whatever they are. That is as far as I have got. I need a department, not a home office and other work to do…. but the fundamental cause supports a heat impulse from beneath. What causes it?