Oldbrew & Tallbloke: Jupiter’s dance with the Sun

Posted: January 21, 2022 by oldbrew in data, solar system dynamics
Tags:

Jupiter’s cloud bands [image credit: NASA]

Scientist Rhodes Fairbridge noted in an essay that D.G. King-Hele had in the 1960s pointed out a pattern of solar-planetary significance:
‘King-Hele was able to identify a cyclical process referring to the return alignments of Jupiter, the center of the Sun, and the center of gravity of the Solar System (the barycenter).’

Although some of King-Hele’s conclusions may have been based on no longer used ephemeris data, the basic pattern is still there for us to see today.

The Solar Simulator shows that the Jupiter-Sun line passes through the solar system barycentre exactly 19 times every ~179 years, equivalent to 9 Jupiter-Saturn synodic periods of 19.865~ years each (aka the Jose cycle).

On one, or sometimes two (depending on the chosen start date) of the 19 crossings the line appears to hover around the barycentre for a variable period of up to a few years. [Example: 1789-95]. These events are counted as one Jupiter-barycentre-heliocentre (JBH) alignment.

Now to the numerics:
9 Jupiter-Saturn synodic periods = 18 half J-S periods, i.e. 9 conjunctions (J&S together on same side of Sun) and 9 oppositions (J&S directly opposite each other with Sun inline between them).

1 Jose cycle + 18 J-S/2 = 19 = number of JBH alignments in the period (~179 years).

Kepler’s trigon – the orientation of consecutive Jupiter-Saturn synodic periods, showing the repeating triangular shape (trigon).

Turning to the Jupiter-Saturn precession cycle period of ~2503 years, it contains:
14 Jose cycles
252 J-S/2 (18*14)
211 Jupiter orbits
41 revolutions of 360 degrees of the synodic axis of Jupiter-Saturn (see Kepler diagram)

Further calculations arise:
19 JBH (per Jose cycle) * 14 = 266 JBH
211 + 41 = 252
252 + 14 = 266
266 JBH – 211 (J orbits) = 41 + 14 = 55

Mean period of the JBH crossing:
2503.0909 tropical years / 266 = 9.410116 TY

Since 252+14=266, 9.410116 TY is also the axial period of the Jose cycle and the J-S/2 period, i.e:
(Mean JBH) / Jose, + (Mean JBH) / (J-S/2) = 1

Mean period of the JBH-J cycle:
2503.0909 TY / 55 = 45.510743 TY

Since 41+14=55, 45.510743 TY is also the axial period of the Jose cycle and of one precession cycle of the J-S synodic axis, i.e.:
(Mean JBH-J) / Jose, + (Mean JBH-J) / J-S axis cycle = 1

Variation of the time between JBH crossing periods from the 9.41 year mean can be quite large, up to a few years +/- that value, although the majority of crossings tend to be in the +/- 1.5 year range from the mean. The overall period of 19 consecutive JBH crossings does not appear to vary more than +/- a few months from the expected mean of 178.79 tropical years, at least on the randomly selected test cases to date.

The longer JBH events may be linked to the modulation of solar angular momentum. For example, this graphic clearly shows the late 1960s event, referred to in the text of the paper it came from as a ‘distortion’.

[Credit: Gerry Pease, Gregory Glenn]

Although the graphic on the right from the Solar Simulator only shows one date, this alignment of Jupiter, the barycentre and the Sun started in 1967 and continued into 1971.

An anomalously lower solar cycle (SC20) compared to its neighbours occurred at that time. The Dalton minimum occurred soon after the 1789-95 JBH alignment.

Comments
  1. […] Oldbrew & Tallbloke: Jupiter’s dance with the Sun […]

  2. oldmanK says:

    There may be more to Jupiter’s doings than meets the eye.

    Two papers (plus quotes):

    Quantifying the Influence of Jupiter on the Earth’s Orbital Cycles
    Jonathan Horner1

    “https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ab5365/pdf

    “For the subset that proved stable, we found that both the periods and
    amplitudes of the oscillations in Earth’s orbital elements varied
    markedly as a function of Jupiter’s initial orbital elements. When
    Jupiter began on an orbit closer to the Sun, the periodicity of
    Earth’s orbital element variation was typically shorter than when
    Jupiter was more distant. Simultaneously, the amplitude of the
    Earth’s orbital cycles varied as the giant planet was moved through
    the solar system, with some stable solar system variants featuring
    oscillations in Earth’s orbital inclination that approached, or even
    exceeded, ten degrees.”

    And

    Effects of Extreme Obliquity Variations
    on the Habitability of Exoplanets

    https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/ast.2013.1129

    “We interpret our results to mean that planets with large and
    rapid obliquity oscillations are more likely to be habitable than
    those with negligible oscillations, such as Earth. This perspective is at odds with the notion that the stability of Earth’s
    obliquity is important to the development of life.”

    It seems that the “”Apparent”” axial tilt may be effected by both gravitational torques with respect to ecliptic, but also by effecting the ecliptic plane with respect to the celestial equator.

    In both situations the effect takes place -likely?- with in-line configurations (which includes also the moon, as ancient lore states variously), therefore it would be abrupt and limited to a window of a few weeks at most. This is in fact what year 173CE has indicated.

    Changes in obliquity, read from equinox to solstice angle (which may include both effects) as recorded in megalithic structures, range from 14.5 to ~24deg (in abrupt changes).

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    Rightly left allITall miss SSTory:
    Fear lack-a-doomUK$400k?
    Seekin’ fundin’ well-past Ashkenazy & Gildor (2008), DOweather classIC “beyond Milankovitch!”
    Simple tip increases proportion of variance explained by 1/3.
    Obliquely left 0.3% for $sum academic magicians “too rightly” CO[II] luck!

  4. Ron Messick says:

    Thank you. I enjoyed this post very much. What those of you with solar simulator may find interesting is that the image of the sun always fits precisely between the center of gravity and the outer perimeter of the circle (864,000-miles) during periods of diminished solar activity. It also appears that as the sun’s image comes slowly into contact with the outer perimeter, the length-of-day begins to shorten (as if somehow friction was being applied). It also seems to be when very large earthquakes occur here on Earth i.e., (May 1960 and December 2004).

    Note that this phenomenon does not happen when the sun moves rapidly across the outer perimeter at a sharp angle. Here’s a video covering the last 60-years.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Ron M.

    In your video it’s clear to see the Sun-Jupiter line is on the barycentre (COM) from about 1967-71 (0:18 to 0:28 secs. on the video clock), as mentioned in the post.

    Update:
    The post mentions 1789-95 as a JBH event. That’s essentially one Jose cycle (~179 years) earlier than the 1967-71 event.
    – – –
    Re: ‘What those of you with solar simulator may find interesting is that the image of the sun always fits precisely between the center of gravity and the outer perimeter of the circle (864,000-miles) during periods of diminished solar activity.’

    Another way of saying this is that the surface of the Sun is skimming the barycentre at such times, e.g. 2006-08 at the minimum of solar cycle 23, also including a JBH event.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Ivanka Charvatova refers to ‘trefoil intervals’ of 1734-85 and 1913-64 in this paper…

    http://geolines.gli.cas.cz/fileadmin/volumes/volume11/G11-012.pdf

    Both finish almost immediately (by 3-4 years) before the JBH events starting in 1789 and 1967 that we cited in our post.

  7. watersider says:

    Tallbloke and Oldbrew,

    Should I be concerned by Kepplers Masonic triangle above?

  8. oldbrew says:

    watersider – no, check the dates 🙂

    Jupiter and Saturn alignment dates with the Sun can be checked on the Solar Simulator.

  9. oldbrew says:

    The Saturn-barycentre-heliocentre event occurs 10 times per ~179 years (Jose cycle). So this follows the same pattern as Jupiter, except that there’s one crossing per synodic period instead of 2, plus one ‘extra’ (9+1=10 compared to 18+1=19).

    The extra one is when a Jupiter-Saturn opposition occurs with the Sun at the barycentre. The other nine occur near the J-S conjunction.

  10. Paul Vaughan says:

    bidecadal oscillation (BDO) review

    alternate link

    some more nostalgia from past BDO discussion
    found these in the wayback machine too

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    a little more reminiscing
    see these on flashing 1470 image above

    19.8650360864628 = beat(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    146.811044907566 = slip(19.8650360864628,1.00001743371442)

    35.8545526210295 = beat(164.791315640078,29.4474984673838)
    245.457330093573 = slip(35.8545526210295,1.00001743371442)

    12.7827932366801 = beat(164.791315640078,11.8626151546089)
    58.7904893808801 = slip(12.7827932366801,1.00001743371442)

    BDO animation

    (old link)

    2.36966735541038 = slip(0.999978614647502,0.0745030006844627)
    9.0943796900619 = slip(2.36966735541038,0.499989307323751)
    96.1613372617316 = slip(9.0943796900619,0.999978614647502)

    We all know this (lunar tropical month) is observed (with crystal clarity) in LOD:
    0.0748024157783867 = axial(0.999978614647502,0.0808503463381246)

    Simple step from there:
    208.076918907664 = slip(96.1613372617316,0.0748024157783867)

    0.0748024157783867 = axial(0.999978614647502,0.0808503463381246)
    18.6129709123853 = beat(0.0748024157783867,0.0745030006844627)
    8.84735293159855 = beat(0.0754402464065708,0.0748024157783867)
    16.8627856518082 = beat(18.6129709123853,8.84735293159855)

    179.333323110834 = slip(18.6129709123853,8.84735293159855)
    491.132481334807 = slip(179.333323110834,16.8627856518082)
    245.566240667403 = 491.132481334807 / 2

    207.340632664648 = beat(179.333323110834,96.1613372617316)
    103.670316332324 = 207.340632664648 / 2

    245.715087562547 = beat(179.333323110834,103.670316332324)
    65.693651051301 = axial(179.333323110834,103.670316332324)
    131.387302102602 = harmean(179.333323110834,103.670316332324)

    405378.494928687 = beat(245.715087562547,245.566240667403)
    neat how the whole thing fits g_2 – g_5

    looks like simple QBO, Chandler excitation
    (as spikes bounce through resonance on BDO illustration)

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review

    high frequency component on BDO graph
    12.7827932366801 = beat(164.791315640078,11.8626151546089)
    1.08489003796792 = beat(12.7827932366801,1.00001743371442)
    0.54244501898396 = beat(6.39139661834006,0.500008716857211)
    1.18550519732499 = beat(1.00001743371442,0.54244501898396)
    433.005773322953 = 1.18550519732499 / 365.25
    looks (quite simply) like resonant excitation of “internal” lunisolar mode

    BDO animation

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    flashing 1470 graph review of (central limit of) temporal spacing

    19.8650360864628 = beat(29.4474984673838,11.8626151546089)
    146.811044907566 = slip(19.8650360864628,1.00001743371442)

    35.8545526210295 = beat(164.791315640078,29.4474984673838)
    245.457330093573 = slip(35.8545526210295,1.00001743371442)

    12.7827932366801 = beat(164.791315640078,11.8626151546089)
    58.7904893808801 = slip(12.7827932366801,1.00001743371442)

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    central limit of BDO form-variation outlined here

    for those who like to be strung along it never ends:
    49.5910853141232 = 58.7904893808801 / 1.18550519732499
    496 = s(496)

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    quick review of 20, 50, & 96 (note in last link they lose track of 96 when it’s manifest strongly in southern ocean & southest pacific)

    _20_ ; _50_ ; _96_

  16. oldbrew says:

    From Gerry Pease’s paper:

    Figure 5 again shows the start years of sunspot cycle
    phase coherence in 1878 and 1699. Those years are
    preceded by anomalously short and flat torque cycles in
    the 15 year intervals 1859 to 1874 and 1680-1695. The
    corresponding future years are 2038 to 2053
    . [bold added]
    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1610/1610.03553.pdf

    Corresponding JBH intervals (using the Solar Simulator) are:
    1680.02 – 1694.10 [14y.09m.]
    1859.03 – 1873.04 [14y.01m.]
    2038.07 – 2051.09 [13y.03m.]

    As the mean JBH interval is 9.41~ years, it’s fair to say these three are ‘anomalous’. The last one is still close to the barycentre up to spring 2052.

  17. Paul Vaughan says:

    So this osculating thing’s in stronger resonance with annual on average every chandler wobble and the timing shifts (shape shifts) are summarized here.

    quick review of Minobe’s 20 & 50 year work (I see the other comments eventually cleared moderation)

    You can see 96 in a paper by some other authors, but they lose track of it when it manifests elsewhere more recently (southern ocean & southeast pacific).

    Some subtle points that will be lost on many, no doubt.

  18. Paul Vaughan says:

    moderators: something weird going on with comments — is it the word “China”?
    [mod] comment was in the WP spam filter

  19. Paul Vaughan says:

    moderators: this comment is a test — trying to determine what word is tripping the filter

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    “WP spam filter” Test

    My guess is they figure the average westerner isn’t prepared to learn efficiently (insufficient math and computer science immersion at an early age, then insufficient health & wealth later for most).

    There’s no shortage of lunisolar amplifier modes (e.g. found Hudson Bay beach ridge combo last fall (recall Fairbridge) – never recorded it in the flood).

    BDO animation summarizes average shape-cycle (spatial central limit).
    Shape of individual instances varies strongly.

    Some nostalgia (2nd derivatives) – from way back in the old days:

  21. […] Oldbrew & Tallbloke: Jupiter’s dance with the Sun […]

  22. Paul Vaughan says:

    Regarding quality, persistence, & timing of resonance:
    Left doubt rightly herd tropically “what experts?

  23. oldbrew says:

    Re. the Saturn-barycentre-heliocentre (SBH) comment:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2022/01/21/oldbrew-tallbloke-jupiters-dance-with-the-sun/#comment-175209

    It seems that JBH + SBH = UBH + NBH would be nearly true, but not quite as J-U and J-N conjunctions are not exactly whole numbers at the period of 9 J-S.

    So it would look like:
    JBH = 18 (J-S/2) +1 = 19
    SBH = 9 (J-S) + 1 = 10
    UBH = 13 (J-U) + 1 = 14
    NBH = 14 (J-N) + 1 = 15

    The +1 assumes the Sun itself is at the barycentre once per 179 years, on average.

    19+10 = 14+15 = 29
    Sum of all four = 58
    (JBH*3 = 57, but without the +1s it’s 18 out of 54 = 1:3)

    However 13 J-U and 14 J-N are not exactly the same period as 9 J-S or as each other, although very close. So it’s OK as a rule of thumb but not as a 100% precise guide.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    climate exploration nostalgia: “actual time intervals and orbital periods can vary about their respective means […] spread of an object’s orbital period about a mean value ensures that that object may spend a significant proportion of its time at values immediately on either side of the mean. […] come into resonance […] at irregular time intervals. For want of a better term […] sporadic alignment [ = ] “near resonance”.” (p.23)

    realize 2 types of resonance from BDO graph above:
    1. resonance with annual cycle tightens and loosens (to fleeting crosses) on ~20 year cycle
    2. the fast & fleeting resonance-crosses on-average beat with annual to match Chandler

    Daze-rightly note? left vertical scale.

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