The Termination Event has Arrived

Posted: February 26, 2022 by oldbrew in Cycles, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

According to a new theory of solar cycles, that is.

Feb. 25, 2022: Something big just happened on the sun. Solar physicists Scott McIntosh (NCAR) and Bob Leamon (U. Maryland-Baltimore) call it “The Termination Event.”

“Old Solar Cycle 24 has finally died–it was terminated!” says McIntosh. “Now the new solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, can really take off.”

The “Termination Event” is a new idea in solar physics, outlined by McIntosh and Leamon in a December 2020 paper in the journal Solar Physics. Not everyone accepts it–yet. If Solar Cycle 25 unfolds as McIntosh and Leamon predict, the Termination Event will have to be taken seriously.

Above: Predictions for Solar Cycle 25. Green would be average. Blue is the “official” prediction of a weak cycle. Red is a 2020 prediction based on the Termination Event.

The basic idea is this: Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) started in Dec. 2019. However, old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) refused to go away. It…

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  1. oldbrew says:

    The Sun is now at its furthest distance from the solar system barycentre in this cycle, according to the solar simulator. It will remain in that zone for most of this year.

  2. tallbloke says:

    Interesting that Scott’s estimate of the envelope of the period between termination shocks is the same as our SBO period.

    Pity the article doesn’t tell us when the previous one was. Is there a list in Scott’s paper?

  3. Philip Mulholland says:

    Here is his Research Gate profile:

  4. oldbrew says:

    The abstract of Scott M’s paper:

    Open access paper co-authored by him:
    Triggering The Birth of New Cycle’s Sunspots by Solar Tsunami

    The ‘further reading’ list has links to more solar physics articles by Scott M and others, e.g. this one which has a ‘Historical Picture’ section:
    (see Figure 5).

  5. oldbrew says:

    Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: 140 Years of the ‘Extended Solar Cycle’ – Mapping the Hale Cycle
    December 2021

    The ESC (and Hale cycle) pattern highlights the importance of 55∘ latitude in the evolution, and possible production, of solar magnetism.
    . . .
    The prevalence of 55∘ latitude in this puzzle throughout the entire observational record (Figure 10) highlights the presence of a strong, possibly geometric, demarcation between the polar and equatorial zones.
    [bold added]

    89:55 = golden ratio 🤔

  6. oldbrew says:

    Miles Mathis has a pop at termination event theorists.

    Click to access term.pdf

  7. ichor0 says:

    It is two months later. Mathis is even more certain. Two days ago: “The Day Mainstream Science Died. ”

    “Neptune is aligning to Jupiter, the Sun, and the galactic core even as you read this, and solar flux is hugely spiking, up to 180 today. Just as I have been predicting for years. ”

    At the least, this is geometrically possible: the sun orbits the galaxy ‘head first’ while ‘moving up and down’, with the planets orthogonal. While the galactic core is also orthogonal. This means there will times where the sun, at least one gas giant, and that will be roughly aligned.

    He did predict this spike, from 2020:

    For Mathis this is more proof sub-photons are constantly emitted by every nucleus everywhere as particles spinning only on one axis (that need to be jostled into tumbling on a y-axis to become E/M radiation).

    I will say I find all his science essays very interesting, and I have read a lot of them. It is a ‘theory of everything’ (TOE) with no natural starting essay to suggest. For sure they are written by a single person, and that photo could be him.

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