Solar Cycle Update: The Gap is Growing

Posted: April 6, 2022 by oldbrew in Cycles, predictions, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

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Trend or blip? The former looks more likely at the moment, but the sun can cause surprises.

Spaceweather.com

April 5, 2022: New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that Solar Cycle 25 is racing ahead of the official forecast–and the gap is growing:

See the complete labeled plot or play with an interactive version from NOAA

Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years.

The “official forecast” comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

In March 2022, the sun produced 146 solar flares, including one X-flare and 13 M-flares. Auroras were sighted as far south…

View original post 38 more words

Comments
  1. tallbloke says:

    Our own model predicted the timing and amplitude of the first peak of cycle 24 well. It predicts the first peak of cycle 25 will occur within months from now. If it’s correct, we’re looking at a very low cycle.

  2. Phoenix44 says:

    I know nothing about this stuff, but looking at the chart, the previous cycle was very variable on the way up, with significant spikes. Based on that, this doesn’t look unusual yet.

  3. Don B says:

    SC 24, a weak cycle, had spikes of activity greater than the current surge in SC 25.
    It may be too soon to draw conclusions.

  4. ichor0 says:

    As far as I can tell the main difference between the above Orbital Resonance model and a similar one that adds galactic core alignment will between 6-8th years, when the latter has peak.

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