Use of ‘too hot’ climate models exaggerates impacts of global warming

Posted: May 5, 2022 by oldbrew in climate, IPCC, methodology, modelling, predictions, Temperature

Too much hot air

We’ve been hearing this for years, but here it is again. It seems hard to get climate science to follow best practice and discard models that perform poorly against observational data, or at least the worst ones. Time’s up now as it’s getting too embarrassing, with the climate clearly failing to comply with ultra-warmist predictions. But over-optimistic belief that the models are nearly on course is still rife.
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U.N. report authors say researchers should avoid suspect models – from

One study suggests Arctic rainfall will become dominant in the 2060s, decades earlier than expected. Another claims air pollution from forest fires in the western United States could triple by 2100. A third says a mass ocean extinction could arrive in just a few centuries.

All three studies, published in the past year, rely on projections of the future produced by some of the world’s next-generation climate models.

But even the modelmakers acknowledge that many of these models have a glaring problem: predicting a future that gets too hot too fast.

Although modelmakers are adapting to this reality, researchers who use the model projections to gauge the impacts of climate change have yet to follow suit. That has resulted in a parade of “faster than expected” results that threatens to undermine the credibility of climate science, some researchers fear.

Scientists need to get much choosier in how they use model results, a group of climate scientists argues in a commentary published today in Nature.

Researchers should no longer simply use the average of all the climate model projections, which can result in global temperatures by 2100 up to 0.7°C warmer than an estimate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“We need to use a slightly different approach,” says Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payment services company Stripe and lead author of the commentary. “We must move away from the naïve idea of model democracy.”

Instead, he and his colleagues call for a model meritocracy, prioritizing, at times, results from models known to have more realistic warming rates.

Continued here.

  1. Phoenix44 says:

    Never going to happen. Without the catastrophic, rapid warming, there no reason to do much of anything for a long time. That doesn’t suit anybody except us Deniers. It’s long been known that using tgd mist extreme scenario (lots of coal, high population growth) as the basis for models is wrong, yet still they use it and present it as “the scenario”.

    Far too many reasonable people have let this nonsense get completely out of control because it suited them. Now they think they can rein it in. Never going to happen.

  2. oldbrew says:

    From the article:

    Researchers have since tracked down the causes of the too-hot models, which include those produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the U.S. Department of Energy, the United Kingdom’s Met Office, and Environment and Climate Change Canada. They often relate to the way models render clouds; one result has been excessive predicted warming in the tropics. [bold added]
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    Clouds again 🤔

  3. ivan says:

    I think this is where an XKCD comment applies.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Is It Time To Ditch Those Shoddy ‘Climate Models’?
    May 17, 2022

    One major anomaly of the climate modeling scene is that, as the authors write, “As models become more realistic, they are expected to converge.” But the opposite has happened—there is more divergence among the models.

    Almost a quarter of recent computer climate models show much higher potential future temperatures than past model suites, and don’t match up with known climate history:

    “Numerous studies have found that these high-sensitivity models do a poor job of reproducing historical temperatures over time and in simulating the climates of the distant past.”

    What this means is that our uncertainty about the future climate is increasing. To paraphrase James Q. Wilson’s famous admonition to social scientists, never mind predicting the future; many climate models can’t even predict the past.

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