Active Hurricane Season Expected in the Atlantic Ocean 

Posted: May 26, 2022 by oldbrew in Analysis, ENSO, predictions, Uncertainty, wind

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Unusually, this is the third year in a row under La Niña.
– – –
La Niña conditions and warm ocean temperatures have set the stage for another busy tropical storm year, says Eos.

If forecasts are correct, this season will mark the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic.

NOAA forecasts out today predict a 65% chance of an above-average season, a 25% chance of a normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The ranges account for uncertainty in the data and models of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The year could be twice as active as normal, said NOAA forecaster Matthew Rosencrans at a news conference today. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index, which represents the season’s intensity and duration of storms, comes to 115 to 200. A near-average season has an ACE index between 66 and 111.

NOAA forecasts 14 to 21 named storms this season, which is higher than the average of 14.4 per season. Hurricane watchers may remember that 2020 and 2021 were the first 2 years that hurricane forecasters ran out of names for hurricanes after using all 21 storm names.

Six to 10 of the named storms could become hurricanes with winds clocking 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour) or higher. Of those, three to six could grow into major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour) or above. NOAA gives the prediction 70% confidence.

The first storm disturbance of the year traveled over the Florida Panhandle yesterday [23 May]. Hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November.

The prediction agrees with independent forecasts issued by universities and agencies. All other forecasts but one predicted an above-average number of storms this year.

Full article here.

  1. […] Active Hurricane Season Expected in the Atlantic Ocean  […]

  2. Saighdear says:

    Really? Named storms, oh aye, ‘Och aye , the noo …. for an hour or so far out to sea ( too far to see ) So what’s the deal? race to see who can forecast some nonsense. Should have been here in inner M Firth TODAY. THrashed and trashed trees again. Transplanted “plants, of course” being blown out of the soil. Just waiting for more snow by the 10th June, nothing changed. THat echo in the Glen again – and if it’s not the Cuckoo …..

  3. oldbrew says:

    NOAA’s ENSO blog mentions wind shear:

    Another reason to care about the ENSO forecast is La Niña’s influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña conditions decrease the vertical wind shear—the difference between near-surface and upper-level winds—over the tropical Atlantic. Shear makes it harder for hurricanes to develop, so La Niña’s reduced shear can contribute to a more active hurricane season.
    – – –
    Of course, the forecasters will know that.

  4. Gamecock says:

    ‘Second, ocean waters in the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea are warmer than average, fueling storms.’

    Bullshit. Ocean temperatures are NOT a limiting factor.

    ‘A study from European scientists published this year suggests that the active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was made twice as likely by warming ocean waters.’


    La Niña conditions means we are likely to get more storms. Fine. We know that. The rest is junk science.

  5. Phoenix44 says:

    Gamecock, “made twice as likely by warming ocean waters” is complete gibberish. They cannot possibly know that nor measure it. If I have a normal dice, my chances of throwing a six are 1/6. Now I say I might have loaded it to make the chance 1/3. You throw a six. Have I loaded the dice? You cannot know. The 2021 Hurricane season was possible without climate change – that’s implicit in their claim. Perhaps it had a low probability without climate change. But so what? Low probability events happen. Them happening doesn’t mean their probability has increased. It’s absolute nonsense.

  6. oldbrew says:

    Rare ‘Triple-Dip’ La Niña Increasingly Possible – What That Could Mean for Hurricane Season and Ongoing Drought
    May 13, 2022

    Right now, it’s unusually cool by spring standards.

    As of May 4, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean water was 1.2 degrees Celsius cooler than average, the coolest in May in 22 years, according to tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

    And April’s anomaly – 1.1 degrees cooler than average – tied a record cool anomaly with 1950, according to NOAA.
    – – –
    No warming ocean waters there.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Biden’s handlers up the ante on hurricane season
    By Joe Bastardi | June 1st, 2022

    JB trashes the climate alarmist politicians again.

  8. oldbrew says:

    One came in from the other direction…

    Hurricane Agatha hits Mexico’s Oaxaca state with 105mph winds
    31 May 2022

    A 105mph hurricane has become the strongest to ever make landfall in May in the eastern Pacific.

    Hurricane Agatha came ashore in southern Mexico’s Oaxaca state on Monday afternoon, bringing torrential rain, stormy seas and forcing people into shelters.

    It hit a sparsely populated area of beach towns and fishing villages.
    [see link for map]

  9. oldbrew says:

    Hurricane category isn’t the full picture. Scientists suggest it’s time for a new scale
    JUNE 2, 2022

    Scientists have long argued that the familiar Category 1 to 5 system that hurricane watchers are familiar with doesn’t do a good enough job explaining the risk of a storm. And they’ve proposed all kinds of new ways to categorize them.

    “If Katrina is a 3 on a 1-to-5 scale, then that scale is broken. We need to do something else,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist.

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