Archive for June, 2022

Image credit: interactivestars.com


Not exactly a new idea, but worth pursuing. Given the present feverish pursuit of supposedly climate-related policies that attempt to counter imagined human-caused effects, all known aspects of natural variation must be highlighted and included in models.
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New analysis suggests that the Moon might be an unappreciated factor in climate change and, according to researchers from the Universities of East Anglia and Reading, its influence “cannot be discounted as an important driver of multidecadal variability of global temperature.”

It’s a suggestion that is bound to prompt debate and a possible reassessment of the relative influence of human factors on climate change in the past and the future when the lunar effect is included, says Dr. David Whitehouse @ Net Zero Watch.

It arises from the so-called lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years caused by variations in the angle of the Moon’s orbital plane. During this period the Moon’s orbit “wobbles” between plus or minus 5 degrees relative to the Earth’s equator.

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Climate alarmists touting greater intensity and/or frequency of strong hurricanes, while advocating endless renewables, ought to take note of this.

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

My regular readers know that I have been fussing about the threat of hurricanes destroying proposed Atlantic coast offshore wind arrays. The issue arises because the offshore wind industry is based in Europe, which does not get hurricanes. My focus has been Dominion’s massive project off Virginia, but the whole East Coast is hurricane alley.

Now I have found some research that actually quantifies the threat and it is very real. It looks like wind generators will have to be redesigned specifically to withstand hurricanes. In fact that work is underway. In the meantime we should not be building conventional offshore wind towers.

The 2017 press release is succinctly titled “Offshore wind turbines vulnerable to Category 5 hurricane gusts”. The PR says this: “The study, which was conducted in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and the U.S. Department of Energy’s

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Landfalling hurricane [credit: NOAA]


A reconstructed record of cyclone activity going as far back as 1850 doesn’t show what climate alarmists, with their assertions of ‘human-induced’ global warming, might have expected. The intensity question is left for future research. The researchers note that ‘For most tropical cyclone basins (regions where they occur more regularly), including Australia, the decline has accelerated since the 1950s. Importantly, this is when human-induced warming also accelerated.’ [Or so they believe.] ‘The only exception to the trend is the North Atlantic basin’. Of course detailed historical records of natural climate variation may also be hard to find.
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The annual number of tropical cyclones forming globally decreased by about 13% during the 20th century compared to the 19th, according to research published today in Nature Climate Change.

Tropical cyclones are massive low-pressure systems that form in tropical waters when the underlying environmental conditions are right, says The Conversation.

These conditions include (but aren’t limited to) sea surface temperature, and variables such as vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with altitude.

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Image credit: livescience.com

In their computer model game they use the discredited RCP 8.5 formula that assumes a highly unlikely surface energy increase of 8.5W/m^2 by 2100 (not 2050). What’s the point?
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You may have seen some of our forecasts that look a little further ahead than you would usually expect, says the UK Met Office.

Although they use the same graphics as our normal weather forecasts, we’ve been producing theoretical ‘forecasts’ for 2050 to look at what conditions we could expect to see in the UK if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

One of the greatest challenges with communicating the risks of climate change is how to show, in a relatable way, how changes in our atmosphere could impact the weather we experience on the Earth’s surface.

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Time to put the brakes on this worse than useless policy. Even some climate obsessives are against it. Will governments now admit their mistake?
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A new analysis by European environmental NGO Transport & Environment finds that Europe burns more than 17,000 tonnes of rapeseed and sunflower oil every day—the equivalent of 19 million 1-liter bottles, reports Green Car Congress.

This has contributed to spiralling food price rises as well as empty supermarket shelves in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the organization says.

T&E has called on governments to prioritize food over fuel and end the use of crop biofuels now.

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Fracking: note the deep shaft


Any decision shouldn’t be based on the preferences of a minority of evidence-light climate squealers or other campaigners seeking to exaggerate minor issues. If the verdict is ‘no’ it should explain why it’s OK to import gas from overseas fracking operations.
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London, 25 June – Net Zero Watch is today launching a campaign to ensure science is put at the heart of the British Geological Survey’s review into shale gas extraction, demanding the Government uses this opportunity to unlock national and local benefits, and enhance Britain’s energy security.

24 prominent parliamentarians including Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, Esther McVey MP, and the former Minister of State at the Cabinet Office, Lord Frost, have already signed up to the campaign. This is along with the leadership team of the parliamentary Net Zero Scrutiny Group, Craig Mackinlay MP and Steve Baker MP.

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Canadian Arctic archipelago [via Wikipedia]


The clue is in the study title: The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia.
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A new study led by University of Arizona researchers may have solved two mysteries that have long puzzled paleo-climate experts (says Phys.org): Where did the ice sheets that rang in the last ice age more than 100,000 years ago come from, and how could they grow so quickly?

Understanding what drives Earth’s glacial–interglacial cycles—the periodic advance and retreat of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere—is no easy feat, and researchers have devoted substantial effort to explaining the expansion and shrinking of large ice masses over thousands of years.

The new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, proposes an explanation for the rapid expansion of the ice sheets that covered much of the Northern Hemisphere during the most recent ice age, and the findings could also apply to other glacial periods throughout Earth’s history.

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Ned Nikolov sends exciting news. He’s been invited to co-edit a special issue of ‘Climate’ jounal, carried by high impact factor open access publisher MDPI; the world’s largest and fastest growing open access publisher. He has now issued the call for papers.

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154): “Natural Drivers of Climate Change: New Frontiers”
This special issue belongs to the section “Climate and Environment“.
Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 January 2023 |

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We would like to welcome contributions for a Special Issue in the MDPI journal Climate focused on natural drivers of the Earth’s climate. Results from Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) highlight the critical role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in determining the course of future climatic change. These models, rooted in theory, do not successfully simulate natural phenomena such as ENSO, PDO and AMO. However, recent published research suggests that the natural forcing of climate may have been underestimated and that the lack of proper representation of such forcing in models may be highly consequential for climate projections. For example, studies have shown that cloud albedo has decreased over the past 40 years, and the resulting increase of surface solar radiation is a significant contributor to the observed warming (Herman et al. 2013Hofer et al. 2017Pfeifroth et al. 2018Pokrovsky 2019Delgado-Bonal et al. 2020Dübal & Vahrenholt 2021). At the same time, the inability of AOGCMs to predict changes in cloud albedo has been recognized as a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections (Williams et al. 2020Ceppi & Nowack 2021).

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SMR transporter


Talk is moving to action in SMR world. The background of the present energy situation seems to favour it, given the ongoing reluctance to burn ‘fossil’ fuels.
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Engineering giant Rolls-Royce has confirmed that its small modular reactors (SMR) division is to locate its head office in Manchester, reports TheBusinessDesk.com.

Tom Samson, Rolls-Royce SMR’s chief executive, made the announcement during a stakeholder event in Manchester, where the company’s senior leadership team gave an update on the project to deploy a fleet of SMR power stations.

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Hands up if you want to risk your country running out of energy supplies! Oh…no takers. But…climate crisis…emissions…blah blah? Not now please, we’re too busy with more urgent matters – like power for next winter.
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While the European Commission has shared three main ways to reduce Russian energy dependency – energy savings, renewables and diversification – many countries opted for their methods, including the revival of fossil fuel projects, says Euractiv.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently warned EU member states not to backtrack on their long-term drive to cut fossil fuel use as a handful of nations turned to coal following a decision by Russia to limit their gas supplies.

Other countries decided to speed up or expand gas drilling initiatives, and some U-turned on previous decisions against drilling.

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Los Angeles, CA


Desperately seeking ‘carbon’ capture. One of the obvious problems of course is that it’s energy-intensive, and that energy has to be generated by non-fossil sources to qualify as suitable for the job, in the eyes of climate obsessives. Ignoring other practical difficulties (storage etc.), where is all the extra power supposed to come from? If wealthy California can’t resolve such issues, most other climate-obsessed regions (excluding those with lots of hydro-power) will surely also struggle to do so, and it all has to be paid for. For ‘ambitious’ read ‘unworkable’?
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California air regulators are likely to hear a barrage of criticism Thursday on a plan to slash fossil fuel use and reach carbon neutrality by 2045, a proposal that would require a sweeping shift in how the state powers its massive economy in the face of climate change, says Phys.org.

It will be the California Air Resources Board’s first public discussion of this year’s draft scoping plan, which is updated every five years and lays out a roadmap for the state to reach its climate goals.

The 2045 goal is among the most ambitious in the nation, but the proposal has many critics beyond the oil industry, which says the strategy has too many bans and mandates.

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Sellafield nuclear site, UK


Newcleo aims to build new small reactors that can consume spent fuel, although its designs are said to be at an early stage. The report states that ‘The UK has the largest civil plutonium stockpile in the world’. Units could be smaller SMR’s than Rolls-Royce plans to offer, and also sealed ones suitable for ships. Similar types of proposal have happened before, but seem to have fizzled out.
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A nuclear power start-up is seeking to create clean energy out of 140 tonnes of waste plutonium stored in Cumbria as Britain scrambles to wean itself off fossil fuels, says the Daily Telegraph.

Newcleo hopes to use spent fuel deposited in Sellafield in a pioneering reactor design that will rival the small nuclear generators being developed by Rolls-Royce.

The proposals come as Boris Johnson seeks to usher in a nuclear revolution for Britain after vowing to triple capacity with eight additional reactors by 2050.

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The net zero emissions concept is once again exposed as a Hollywood-type fantasy. Regardless of whether carbon dioxide is seen as a credible climate problem or not, it just isn’t achievable in time.
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The goal of the U.S. government is to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, per the Paris agreement, says the Washington Examiner.

A three-step analysis establishes this as an impossible goal.

Three possible alternatives — wind, nuclear power, and utility photovoltaic solar (PV) — are analyzed separately in a three-step process to determine the amount of new capacity needed for any of them to meet net-zero carbon by 2050.

The same process then is used to determine whether any combination of the three can achieve the goal.

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German coal operation


The so-called climate crisis soon gets pushed aside when an energy crisis bites. Saving the world is for poseurs, saving your citizens from hardship is politics. Renewables don’t even get a mention.
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Germany will curb domestic energy consumption and boost stockpiles, as it ramps up efforts to stem a winter fuel supply crisis, says the Telegraph.

Europe’s biggest economy will increase gas stockpiles and aim to cut down on the use of energy by its dominant industrial sector, economic minister Robert Habeck said in a statement on Sunday.

“Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious,” he added.

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Solar flare erupting from a sunspot [image credit: space.com]


Who knew!? – asks ScienceAlert. The article links to an interesting new paper on solar cycles, which makes some predictions for the current SC 25 (see section 3.2: Forecasting Using the Solar Unit Cycle). One of those is that it should end in October 2031 ± 9 months, and the authors go on to suggest forthcoming NASA and ESA missions make it probable that ‘Cycle 25 will be the last solar activity cycle that is not fully understood.’
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Something weird is going on with the Sun.

So far, almost every day in 2022 it has erupted in flares and coronal mass ejections, some of which were the most powerful eruptions our star is capable of.

By itself, an erupting Sun is not weird. It erupts regularly as it goes through periods of high and low activity, in cycles that last roughly 11 years.

The current activity is significantly higher than the official NASA and NOAA predictions for the current solar cycle, and solar activity has consistently exceeded predictions as far back as September 2020.

But a solar scientist will tell you that even this isn’t all that weird.

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Power generation is becoming power degeneration thanks to the renewables obsession of government climate worriers.

STOP THESE THINGS

A house of cards has more structural integrity than a power generation system that depends on sunshine and breezes. Australia’s unfolding renewable energy debacle is a case in point.

Total daily collapses solar output (aka ‘sunset’) and total collapses in wind power output (aka ‘calm weather’) are at the heart of a power pricing and supply calamity, with daily power rationing the new normal.

The massive subsidies to wind and solar were designed to destroy the profitability of reliable coal-fired generators, which they duly did.

The political brains trust and their apologists in the MSM have been railing against coal-fired power as “dirty” and the personification of “evil” for years now. And yet, when a coal-fired power plant takes one or two of its several generating units off-line for repairs or maintenance, the same mob howls ‘blue murder’, accusing the plant’s owners of an underhand conspiracy aimed at undermining the…

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The COP 26 climate jamboree has been and gone, and the BBC looks at some of the energy numbers as the UK government pursues its net zero obsession. One obvious and increasing problem is the erratic deficiency of wind and solar power at various times in every 24-hour period, requiring either massive, expensive energy storage capacity or acceptance of power gaps once gas power stations are removed from the system, or most likely both. Complaining about expensive gas, only to propose something yet more costly which doesn’t even generate its own power, lacks economic or any other sense. Nuclear is jogging along in the background but won’t be centre stage any time soon, if ever.
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The UK has committed to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero by 2050, says BBC News.

Net zero is the point at which the country is taking as much of these climate-changing gases out of the atmosphere as it is putting in.

As part of this promise, the government has a target to cut emissions by 78% by 2035, compared with 1990 levels.

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Lots of coal in Australia


Renewables struggle to even keep pace with the increase in demand. They may sound good to some, but in the energy mix overall the heavy lifting is still done by fuel burning. When reality bites, climate theories get pushed aside.
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The share of renewables in the global energy consumption has risen only minimally, according to a new report.
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The world’s energy transition to renewables is not happening, reports Energy Live News.

That’s one of the findings of the REN21’s Renewables 2022 Global Status report, which suggests the global shift to lower-carbon energy sources is not up to speed, making it unlikely that the world will be able to meet critical climate goals this decade.

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Crazy world of climate finance [image credit: renewableenergyfocus.com]


The wealthier (due largely to intensive use of coal, oil and gas) countries have worked out that paying any money that looks like ‘climate compensation’ would be seen as an open-ended admission of liability, leading to endless claims from those less fortunate.
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As key talks end, rich and poor countries are at loggerheads on the divisive issue of loss and damage, says BBC News.
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Poorer nations say rich ones have betrayed them by dragging their feet on paying for centuries of climate damage.

They were hoping to get compensation talks onto the official agenda for November’s COP27 climate conference.

But on the final day of climate talks in Bonn that is in doubt.

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Warm day in London


In a word – no. One or two days of warm air blowing in from the continent to the southern half of the UK can’t prove anything. The forecast for Edinburgh, Scotland for example shows nothing over 20C in the next few days, so wailing about carbon dioxide and climate change is absurd. It shouldn’t need saying that weather isn’t going to be near seasonal norms all the time.
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By the end of this week, parts of Britain will bake in temperatures of up to 34C, far hotter than normal June weather – but is climate change behind the soaring temperatures? – asks Yahoo News.

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist Dan Rudman, said: “Temperatures will continue to rise as we go through the week, becoming well above-average by Friday when many parts of the southern half of the UK are likely to exceed 30C and may even reach 34C in some places.”

“This is the first spell of hot weather this year and it is unusual for temperature to exceed these values in June.”

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