Met Office 2050 forecasts use ‘plausible scenarios’ that aren’t plausible 

Posted: June 27, 2022 by oldbrew in alarmism, MET office, modelling, propaganda, Temperature, weather
Tags: ,

Image credit: livescience.com

In their computer model game they use the discredited RCP 8.5 formula that assumes a highly unlikely surface energy increase of 8.5W/m^2 by 2100 (not 2050). What’s the point?
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You may have seen some of our forecasts that look a little further ahead than you would usually expect, says the UK Met Office.

Although they use the same graphics as our normal weather forecasts, we’ve been producing theoretical ‘forecasts’ for 2050 to look at what conditions we could expect to see in the UK if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

One of the greatest challenges with communicating the risks of climate change is how to show, in a relatable way, how changes in our atmosphere could impact the weather we experience on the Earth’s surface.

By showing what the weather could look like by 2050 at certain times of year, it helps people relate to how different their experiences might be under a changing climate.

To date we’ve produced plausible scenarios for a July 2050 heatwave, Wimbledon and Christmas 2054, and now we’ve examined how Glastonbury could look in 30 years’ time.

Plausible scenarios

The key aspect to these ‘forecasts’ is that they are plausible weather events for 2050. Of course, it isn’t possible to create a genuine weather forecast for 2050, however it is possible to generate a realistic forecast based on the atmospheric conditions projected for the future.

The future forecasts are based on climate projections using a high-emissions scenario. One of the biggest sources of uncertainty in climate change is how much the world manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the years to come. That’s why climate scientists model future global warming under various scenarios.

Although these forecasts use one of the higher emission scenarios (RCP8.5), in the middle of the century – where we are focusing – the difference in climate response between scenarios is much less than later in the century when the benefits of mitigation actions taking place now become much more apparent.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. […] Met Office 2050 forecasts use ‘plausible scenarios’ that aren’t plausible  […]

  2. Kip Hansen says:

    Pielke Jr. wrote something recently about plausible vs impossible model projections:
    Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
    https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf/meta

  3. Roger,

    By 2050, the UK and the rest of the Western World will be part of China and Russia, they will be the only powers with enough Fossil Fuels to fight and win WW3. Then, they will increase the Fossil Fuel Production in their Colonies.

    Alex Pope

  4. oldbrew says:

  5. Chaswarnertoo says:

    GIGO, from Slingo’s Met. Office.

  6. catweazle666 says:

    “You may have seen some of our forecasts that look a little further ahead than you would usually expect, says the UK Met Office.”

    Really… perhaps they ought the IPCC reports – the scientific ones, not the “Summary for Policymakers” political propaganda.

    “In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

    So stated the IPCC’s Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report (TAR), Chapter 14 (final para., 14.2.2.2), p774.

  7. oldbrew says:

    JUNE 24, 2022
    Observational and modeling data help to better understand the Third Pole

    Regarding the Tibetan Plateau’s future climatology as indicated in the preface of the special issue, so far, scientists have not reached a consensus on a robust method of obtaining reliable climate projections. A complete physical attribution of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau needs further analysis.

    https://phys.org/news/2022-06-pole.html
    – – –
    Let the Met Office have a go. A quick dip into their box of future warming assertions and…hey presto…problem solved? 😎

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