NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

Posted: August 7, 2022 by oldbrew in ENSO, predictions, Uncertainty, weather
Tags: ,


We like a prediction, so we’ll see how this one goes after ‘a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic’. NOAA’s ENSO blog says ‘La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin’, which influences their thinking. No doubt climate obsessives will be on the lookout for something to wail about.
– – –
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. — Phys.org reporting.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo.

“The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook—which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30—calls for 14–20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6–10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3–5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

Full report here.

Comments
  1. […] NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season […]

  2. Gamecock says:

    A clown show.

    ‘“The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

    Gibberish.

    ‘“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo.’

    Head clown. Biden appointed.

    A glaring example of strong, central government.

    A homeowner on Sullivans Island would find all this completely useless. It’s hurricane season is the only useful information, which he already knows.

  3. Bloke down the pub says:

    You like predictions? I’ll give you one. In the event that this season does turn out to have more/stronger hurricanes, NOAA will blame it on climate change, depite their stated expectation that this will be the result of La Niña.

  4. Phoenix44 says:

    I honestly don’t know what anyone is supposed to do with these forecasts? What use are they if you don’t know where or when or really if? Just utterly pointless aren’t they?

  5. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Why would NOAA predict that? When the trend is downwards.

  6. oldbrew says:

    NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

    The suspicion is that NOAA wants more hurricanes than average so it can mutter something about ‘climate change’. How they arrive at ‘risen to 30%’ for near-normal activity is a mystery when they’ve seen the early signs already.

  7. Gamecock says:

    ‘Why would NOAA predict that? When the trend is downwards.’

    Propaganda trick. “More hurricanes.” People will believe there are more. Works regardless of the end-of-season count.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes: Never mind La Niña
    Bucking the La Niña playbook for hurricane season, the Atlantic stays quiet while the East Pacific bristles with action.

    by BOB HENSON
    AUGUST 10, 2022

    As of August 9, the Atlantic had mustered only 3.25 named storm days (the total span of time with at least one named storm in progress), compared to an average at this point of 10.8, according to the Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Activity page curated by Colorado State University (CSU).

    The Atlantic season has been equally tepid by the yardstick of accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE – a cumulative measure of the duration and wind speed of a season’s tropical cyclones, but not their size. This year’s Atlantic ACE so far has been 2.8 units: That contrasts with a year-to-date average of 12.3.

    https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/08/atlantic-and-pacific-hurricanes-never-mind-la-nina/
    – – –
    No ‘above-normal Atlantic hurricane season’ so far, quite the reverse.

  9. oldbrew says:

    Not looking great for the ‘above normal’ forecast…

    Published August 4, 2022
    Saharan dust continues to hamper hurricane, tropical storm development in Atlantic as August begins

    Ongoing Saharan dust plumes emerging from the coast of Africa are one of the many factors that have led to the hurricane season appearing benign in recent weeks.

    https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/saharan-dust-atlantic-hurricane-tropical-storm-development-august
    – – –
    Could Hurricane Season Go ‘0 For August?’ Don’t Count On It.
    6 days ago

    The hurricane season has taken a pause for over a month, but it’s highly unlikely this will last through August, as past history has shown and longer-range forecasts are suggesting.

    A disturbance we’ve been monitoring this week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles – Invest 97L – is no longer expected to develop.

    That means it’s now been about six weeks since the last named storms – Bonnie, then Colin – briefly made their appearances in the Atlantic Basin in the first days of July.

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2022-08-11-atlantic-hurricane-season-august
    – – –
    If you’re wondering what happened to that hyper-busy 2022 hurricane season, forecasters say wait
    Updated Aug 15, 2022

    For the first time in seven years, no hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Basin by mid-August. And that might be related to Saharan dust and all the heat we had July into August.

    https://www.inquirer.com/news/atlantic-hurricanes-saharan-dust-lull-andrew-climate-20220815.html

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