The climate attribution game

Posted: August 9, 2022 by oldbrew in Analysis, climate, modelling, opinion, Temperature
Tags: ,


As described below, when climate scientists removed the warming factors they chose to create in their models, the results showed lower temperatures. They seem unaware or uninterested that this proves little or nothing, but label it science anyway and say their studies attribute most of the blame for any observed warming to human factors.
– – –
Since 1880, the average global temperature on Earth has increased by at least 1.1 °C. The culprit? Climate change, of course, asserts Phys.org.

Getting hotter, faster

According to findings released by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, a global collaboration between climate scientists and specialists, the record temperatures would have been up to 4 °C cooler without human-caused climate change.

The hottest day ever (40.3 °C) in the UK was registered on 19 July. The WWA analysis also claims [sic] that climate change made this heatwave 10 times more likely.
. . .
Dr. Radhika Khosla from the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment applauded the WWA’s efforts:

“By carrying out rapid analysis based on established, peer-reviewed methods the WWA team are able to get evidence-based results into the public domain while we can all still remember the major disruptions from last week’s extreme heat. This is the latest in a series of studies that all show the same result: climate change makes heatwaves more likely and more intense.”

The heat is on

The scientists combined observations of temperature records over the years and climate models, or simulations, to determine human impact on extreme heat. “Because we know very well how many greenhouse gases have been put into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution, we can take these things out of the model and simulate a world that might have been without climate change,” Dr. Otto explained to ‘BBC’.

“Every little bit of warming really makes these types of events more likely and even hotter. Heatwaves are much more deadly than other extreme weather like floods and climate change is a game-changer for heatwaves.”

We don’t need science to tell us that extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and last longer around the world. Nor do we need science to tell us who can reverse this dangerous trend.

Full article here.

Comments
  1. catweazle666 says:

    “Because we know very well how many greenhouse gases have been put into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution…”

    So they’re still pretending that all anthropogenic emissions still remain in the atmosphere, despite knowing that they only constitute 3% – 4% of the total Global CO2 cycle
    Flat out dishonesty or what.

  2. Gamecock says:

    ‘The WWA analysis also claims [sic] that climate change made this heatwave 10 times more likely.’

    ‘More likely’ is not a force. It explains nothing. Citing it is an appeal to ignorance.

    “Heatwaves are much more deadly than other extreme weather like floods and climate change is a game-changer for heatwaves.”

    Cold is massively more dangerous. Dr Otto is a liar.

    But gotta hand it to World Weather Attribution. They knew BBC would be a ready client for their junk science! No doubt Guardian signed them up as well.

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    so they base all this on weather in one country. Marvelous.

    Over on our side of the pond they are trying to hang local heat issues on AGW while ignoring colder regions of the same country. 1934 here in the US was way hotter than now. Weather in the UK was much warmer in the Roman Warm Period when they grew large lots of grapes in northern Britain, something they still can’t do today. Etc., etc.

  4. oldbrew says:

    According to findings released by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative, a global collaboration between climate scientists and specialists, the record temperatures would have been up to 4 °C cooler without human-caused climate change.

    When they say ‘findings’ they mean computer games.

    Nor do we need science to tell us who can reverse this dangerous trend.

    Because we’ve got our computers to tell us that 🙄

  5. Graeme No.3 says:

    catweazle666:
    Assuming that ONLY Infra red is involved, then the main “Greenhouse gases” are CO2 and water vapour. The latter is much stronger absorber of IR and is present in 24 to 95 times as much.
    I cannot see how CO2 has much effect.

  6. Phoenix44 says:

    Do they honestly not see how absurd this is? They build a model that assumrs it will be warmer with more CO2 then when they remove CO2 its cooler…and that proves the model!

    It’s entirely circular.

    But it’s also the wrong way round. What they should show is that without climate change these events are not possible. If they are possible then what are they talking about?

  7. Gamecock says:

    10-4, Phoenix.

    It is teleological.

    The result is the cause. Climate change is caused by climate change.

  8. stpaulchuck says:

    I’m still waiting for them to present a viable null hypothesis that they disproved. We’ve read several null hypotheses, particularly Nikolov and Zeller’s work which do work.

  9. oldbrew says:

    There is no climate emergency

    To believe the outcome of a climate model is
    to believe what the model makers have put
    in. This is precisely the problem of today’s
    climate discussion to which climate models
    are central. Climate science has degenerated
    into a discussion based on beliefs, not
    on sound self-critical science. Should not
    we free ourselves from the naive belief in
    immature climate models?

    Click to access WCD-version-06272215121.pdf

    . . .
    A global network of over 1100 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures.

    https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/

    ‘imagined benefits’ – or imaginary…no shortage of those.
    – – –
    There is no climate emergency, says former minister
    Wednesday 10 August 2022

    Former Minister of State Lord Frost has condemned ‘medieval’ wind power

    https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/08/10/there-is-no-climate-emergency-says-former-minister/

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