Global Financial System at Risk From Flawed Climate Models 

Posted: August 30, 2022 by oldbrew in Analysis, climate, Critique, data, modelling, predictions, Temperature, Uncertainty

An unflattering analysis of climate models. Using mean values from numerous models is questioned. Climate attribution studies don’t fare any better: “these approaches are likely to be flawed”.
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A team of Australian scientists, financiers and economists have issued a stark warning over the use of “flawed” climate models to predict financial risk, says Net Zero Watch.

Writing in the journal Environmental Research they say building future strategies on information that is not understood and potentially misleading is likely to expose the global financial system to systemic risks of its own making.

Politicians and policy-makers are increasingly seeking to assess the potential risks to the financial system associated with climate change.

They typically use a combination of databases for the global mean temperature in conjunction with so-called coupled climate models to determine regional and more local changes such as the effect on cities.

According to this new study however this approach is flawed and ineffective. “We show that global mean temperature provides little insight on how acute risks likely material to the financial sector will change at a city-scale,” say the researchers.

They investigate how good using estimates of global mean temperature are at predicting changes in the annual extremes of temperature and rainfall, as well as heatwaves and drought, and extreme rain and strong winds.

They also ask whether such climate attribution studies can provide any insight into the changes in temperature and rainfall over the next 20-, 50- and 100-years. Their conclusion; “these approaches are likely to be flawed,” they say because of the unappreciated uncertainties.

They point out that according to their analysis, and those of others, indicates that the translation of global mean temperature datasets into estimates of extremes is a process so bad that confidence cannot be had in either the magnitude of predicted change, or even in the sign of those changes.

The uncertainty dwarfs any signal from emission scenarios, at least over the next 50 years.”

They add that when it comes to climate models accuracy and precision are not the same thing; physical climate models are very precise, but not necessarily accurate especially when applied to problems they were not designed for.

Frequently no uncertainty information is provided to banks and other institutions conducting long-term studies and stress tests.

Because they find no useful link between global mean temperature and material risks they call for a review of the practice.

Full article here.

  1. […] Global Financial System at Risk From Flawed Climate Models  | Tallbloke’s Talkshop (wordp… […]

  2. oldbrew says:

    Just in from Tony Thomas:

    Shut Them Up, Argues the Academy of Science
    30th August 2022

    In a move unprecedented in the democratic world, the Australian Academy of Science is lobbying the tech giants Meta (Facebook), Twitter, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Adobe and TikTok to censor and harass any Australians who circulate what the Academy insultingly labels “climate denialism misinformation”.

  3. stpaulchuck says:


    all these science academies are rotten to the core. They are run by corrupt rent seekers in my observation. They are determined to ride this billion dollar climate hoax horse as long as they can, so anyone clearly demonstrating that the climate emperor has no clothes MUST be destroyed. You can add NASA, NOAA, Hadley CRU, many universities, etc. to the list.

    Anyone who puts their investments of business at risk by taking the science fiction pumped out by these folks is committing financial suicide.

  4. oldbrew says:

    ‘the translation of global mean temperature datasets into estimates of extremes is a process so bad that confidence cannot be had in either the magnitude of predicted change, or even in the sign of those changes’

    This is where we are today. Climate-obsessed governments base many of their policies on this dismal state of affairs.

  5. Saighdear says:

    Not quite O/T … thought it was yesterday but re-appeared in News TODAY that there was a Big Switchon of “Windpower” …. leave it at that; at Grimsby…. more like a switch-off and then where did the switch go? On Gridwatch I expected to see something “good” but SOLAR is still ahead of wind. Think the Herons DO really KNOW more than the Scientists and Engineers in the Wind Industry

  6. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Warmists lie, Whoda thunk it?

  7. Phoenix44 says:

    Politicians and policy makers are trying to force financial institutions to do what they want, not “inform” them. So they don’t care if the models are accurate or useful. Just do what you are told.

  8. oldbrew says:

    Best practice is supposed to be to select the best performing models (if any?) and take their mean values, discarding the others. But climate science doesn’t want to do that, so their ‘projections’ always exaggerate warming trends.

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    “U.S. President Joe Biden charged in a prime-time address Thursday that the “extreme ideology” of Donald Trump and his adherents “threatens the very foundation of our republic,” as he summoned Americans of all stripes to help counter what he sketched as dark forces within the Republican Party trying to subvert democracy.”

    The “dark forces” are pulling the strings of ALL parties.
    This guy has an awareness problem.

    The list of bad leaders includes Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and pretty much anyone else you can name in any country. Where can good leaders be found? No idea.

    Chill out. Don’t take the bait. Let law enforcement put the escalators in jail.

    Wishing peace and tranquility to everyone everywhere.

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