Updated climate models clouded by scientific biases, researchers find

Posted: September 20, 2022 by oldbrew in climate, Clouds, modelling, predictions, research, Temperature, Uncertainty

Southern Ocean surrounds Antarctica [image credit: theozonehole.com]

Another hole in ‘settled’ climate science? Over-sensitivity to changing conditions may sound familiar. Researchers find “The major implication is that, even though the latest CMIP models improve the simulation of their mean states, such as radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, the detailed cloud processes are still of large uncertainty.” Southern Ocean clouds seem to have been ‘improperly simulated’ when compared to data.
– – –
Clouds can cool or warm the planet’s surface, a radiative effect that contributes significantly to the global energy budget and can be altered by human activities, claims Eurekalert.

The world’s southernmost ocean, aptly named the Southern Ocean and far from human pollution but subject to abundant marine gases and aerosols, is about 80% covered by clouds.

How does this body of water and relationship with clouds contribute to the world’s changing climate?

Researchers are still working to figure it out, and they’re now one step closer, thanks to an international collaboration identifying compensation errors in widely used climate model protocols known as CMIP6. They published their findings on September 20 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

“Cloud and radiation biases over the Southern Ocean have been a long-lasting problem in the past generations of global climate models,” said corresponding author Yuan Wang, now an associate professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at Purdue University. “After the latest CMIP6 models were released, we were anxious to see how they performed and whether the old problems were still there.”

CMIP6, a project of the World Climate Research Programme, allows for the systematic assessment of climate models to illuminate how they compare to each other and real-world data. In this study, Wang and the researchers analyzed five of the CMIP6 models that aim to serve as standard references.

Wang said the researchers were also motivated by other studies in the field that point to the Southern Ocean’s cloud coverage as a contributing factor to some CMIP6 models’ high sensitivity, when the simulations predict a surface temperature that rises too quickly for the rate of increased radiation.

In other words, if improperly simulated, the Southern Ocean clouds may cast a shadow of doubt on the projection of future climate change.

Full article here.

  1. […] Updated climate models clouded by scientific biases, researchers find | Tallbloke’s Talkshop (… […]

  2. Jamie Spry says:

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    “In other words, if improperly simulated, the Southern Ocean clouds may cast a shadow of doubt on the projection of future climate change…”

  3. Gamecock says:

    ‘models improve the simulation’

    A catastrophic failure of logic. ‘Models’ work. Or they don’t work. It simulates, or it doesn’t. ‘Improve’ isn’t possible. It’s trick language. Models didn’t work, and now they still don’t work. Yet you are to belief that is an improvement.

    And, as usual, this type of announcement falsifies all previous model announcements. They have been lying to us for decades. They don’t simulate. You put in numbers; you get numbers out. The output signifying nothing.

  4. oldbrew says:

    The Southern Ocean won’t be the only place with a cloud modelling problem. Name somewhere that doesn’t have one.
    . . .
    Now this…

    Press Release: Important new paper challenges IPCC’s claims about climate sensitivity
    SEPTEMBER 20, 2022
    By Paul Homewood


  5. Saighdear says:

    ‘clouded by scientific biases’ … nothing new there then? no matter the discipline, there is and always has been that issue. The researcher will always have an uphill battle, never mind being in agreement with the Peers. ‘Don’t rock the boat’ we’d been told. .. and as for models …. huh, mechano is a simple Bolt on job, airfix : the glue can spreada or fail, paper can get lost ….. so Maths & Physics ‘ll be no much better. Been reading a little of : https://principia-scientific.com/corruption-of-modern-physics-2-special-theory-of-relativity/ … and plent a fowk can agree with that too.

  6. Phoenix44 says:

    The simple fact remains, the models have never been any good, requiring lots of runs of lots of models to get an average that resembles reality, even after applying plenty of fudge factors in hindcasting. That they diverge from each other and thus from reality over the run of the models is indisputable. They are crude approximations of what we know about climate, and what we know is itself only a crude approximation of climate. I am a Denier because we know far too little to make sort of pronouncements climate scientists make.

  7. oldbrew says:

    Cloud concerns cast shadow over climate model accuracy.

    . . .
    You bet they do.

  8. oldbrew says:

    More problems for climate models…

    Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change (2022)

    Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state-of-the-art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming.


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