Study suggests La Niña winters could keep on coming, but climate models are out of step with observations

Posted: October 4, 2022 by oldbrew in ENSO, modelling, Natural Variation, research, Temperature, Uncertainty
Tags: , ,


The conclusions of a recent study are quite blunt: ‘We show that the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature changes since 1979 is highly unusual, and many aspects of it cannot be reproduced in current climate models, even when accounting for the influence of natural variability.’ Hardly inspiring, when such models are being relied upon by governments for radical so-called climate policies.
– – –
Forecasters are predicting a “three-peat La Niña” this year, says Phys.org.

This will be the third winter in a row that the Pacific Ocean has been in a La Niña cycle, something that’s happened only twice before in records going back to 1950.

New research led by the University of Washington offers a possible explanation. The study, recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that climate change is, in the short term, favoring La Niñas.

“The Pacific Ocean naturally cycles between El Niño and La Niña conditions, but our work suggests that climate change could currently be weighing the dice toward La Niña,” said lead author Robert C.J. Wills, a UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences. “At some point, we expect anthropogenic or human-caused influences to reverse these trends and give El Niño the upper hand.”

Scientists hope to predict the direction of these longer-term El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate trends in order to protect human life and property. [Talkshop comment – really?]

“This is an important question over the next century for regions that are strongly influenced by El Niño, which includes western North America, South America, East and Southeast Asia and Australia,” Wills said.
. . .
But while Earth’s atmosphere has warmed in recent decades, the new study shows a surprising trend in the tropical ocean. The authors looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ship-based measurements and ocean buoys from 1979 to 2000.

The Pacific Ocean off South America has actually cooled slightly, along with ocean regions farther south. Meanwhile, the western Pacific Ocean and nearby eastern Indian Ocean have warmed more than elsewhere. Neither phenomenon can be explained by the natural cycles simulated by climate models. This suggests that some process missing in current models could be responsible.

The upshot of these changes on either side of the tropical Pacific is that the temperature difference between the eastern and western Pacific has grown, surface winds blowing toward Indonesia have strengthened, and people are experiencing conditions typical of La Niña winters.

The study focuses on temperature patterns at the ocean’s surface. Thirty years of data is too short to study the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events.

“The climate models are still getting reasonable answers for the average warming, but there’s something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, that is off,” Wills said.

Full article here.
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From – Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change:

Plain Language Summary

Regional climate change depends not only on the magnitude of global warming, but also on the spatial pattern of warming. We show that the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature changes since 1979 is highly unusual, and many aspects of it cannot be reproduced in current climate models, even when accounting for the influence of natural variability. We find a particularly large discrepancy in the rate of warming within the western Pacific Ocean and eastern Indian Ocean, which suggests that models have systematic biases in the response of sea-surface temperature patterns to anthropogenic forcing, because the contribution of natural variability to multi-decadal trends is thought to be relatively small in this region. Our work raises the possibility that the recent trends toward more La-Niña-like conditions may be partly a response to anthropogenic forcing, even though most existing climate model and paleoclimate evidence suggests that trends will eventually reverse toward more El-Niño-like conditions, with an associated shift in regional climate trends.

Comments
  1. This was written:
    We show that the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature changes since 1979 is highly unusual, and many aspects of it cannot be reproduced in current climate models, even when accounting for the influence of natural variability. We find a particularly large discrepancy in the rate of warming within the western Pacific Ocean and eastern Indian Ocean, which suggests that models have systematic biases in the response of sea-surface temperature patterns to anthropogenic forcing, because the contribution of natural variability to multi-decadal trends is thought to be relatively small in this region.

    Let us examine that, they have spent billions studying man-made CO2, publishing much more than they actually learned, but they have spent nothing studying natural variability, they apparently believe that whatever might have caused natural variability stopped sometime as we were coming out of the last little ice age into this naturally variable modern warm time.

  2. Phoenix44 says:

    Models are rubbish study finds but decides not to quite put it like that.

  3. This was written:
    This suggests that some process missing in current models could be responsible.

    Duh, they leave Natural Variability out of Climate Models, on purpose, cause they ignore the naturally alternating warm, then cold, then warm, then cold, climate cycles of the past. Climate warmed out of the much warmer Roman warm period into a colder period that ended with warming into the Medieval warm period which cooled into the “well known” Little Ice Age. Climate has naturally warmed into to this Modern Warm Period which is the COLDEST WARM PERIOD IN TEN THOUSAND YEARS, according to Greenland Ice Core Records.

  4. oldbrew says:

    the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature changes since 1979 is highly unusual, and many aspects of it cannot be reproduced in current climate models, even when accounting for the influence of natural variability. [bold added]

    This is called ‘state-of-the-art’?

  5. stpaulchuck says:

    “but climate models are out of step with observations” Gee, I wonder if that’s ever happened before /s

  6. oldbrew says:

    “If it turns out to be natural long-term cycles, maybe we can expect it to switch in the next five to 10 years, but if it is a long-term trend due to some processes that are not well represented in the climate models, then it would be longer. Some mechanisms have a switch that would happen over the next few decades, but others could be a century or longer,” Wills said.
    – – –
    *natural long-term cycles* — how many of those are ‘well represented’ in climate models?

  7. oldbrew says:

    NEWS RELEASE 4-OCT-2022
    The last 12,000 years show a more complex climate history than previously thought

    According to the lead author Olivier Cartapanis, “the results challenge the paradigm of a Holocene Thermal Maximum occurring at the same time worldwide”. And, while the warmest temperature was reached between 4,000 and 8,000 years ago in western Europe and northern America, the surface ocean temperature cooled since about 10,000 years ago at mid-high latitudes and remained stable in the tropics. The regional variability in the timing of maximum temperature suggests that high latitude insolation and ice extent played major roles in driving climate changes throughout the Holocene.

    https://www.eurekalert.org/specialtopic/climatechange/news

    Hence ‘The Holocene temperature conundrum’
    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1407229111

  8. oldbrew says:

    Help could be at hand for those struggling climate modellers…

    Published: 03 October 2022
    Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day

    Here we demonstrate long-range predictability of AAM [atmospheric angular momentum] and the length of day, and we show how AAM fluctuations that migrate slowly polewards are not only predictable on interannual timescales but also precede extratropical climate fluctuations
    . . .
    …our monthly angular momentum predictions in the first few months of the forecast show a correlation of ~0.7 with the monthly Niño3.4 ENSO index, consistent with the known triggering of AAM anomalies often by ENSO.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01037-7

    Tallbloke says: I’ve only been telling them this for 13 years…

    Planetary – solar – climate connection found

  9. P.A.Semi says:

    ENSO is primarily about Pacific circulation – La Nina is better circulation than usual, making eastern Pacific colder due to up-welling cold water, while El Nino is bad circulation, making eastern Pacific warmer…

    For predicting La Nina / El Nino – I’ve downloaded monthly SOI (ENSO) data since 1874 from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi/
    and matched it with either Sunspot cycle and/or EMB Angular Momentum changes…

    It can be seen:
    – at Sunspot cycle starting phase there is usually La Nina
    – the high frequency of ENSO often matches the EMB Angular Momentum peaks
    – the stronger phases of SOI above 7, i.e. El Nino and La Nina, come very often during disturbances of that EMB AM… (marked by horizontal green bars below the chart rows)

    From this I wouldn’t expect winter 2023 to be La Nina, and next such extreme (either Nina or Nino) coming in winter 2024…
    But I’m not very sure about that prediction…
    πα½

  10. Looking back to 1950 is pathetic. As shown above there is data going back to 1874. In my area of South East Queensland there has been no rain as heavy in 1893 and 1898 (4m of rain at the official station near where I live). I prefer the Qld Longpaddock site. I do not trust BOM Look at one of the poster series here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/
    These posters are a series of 10 years. I like the series with the cyclone tracts. At the bottom of the series is the SOI and the IPO which go back to 1890. There is an explanation of El Nino and La Nina on the right hand side.
    While some of the official rain collection stations have beeb closed I have been measuring daily rainfall. I have a full monthly record going back to 1893 ie 129 years. I find that the monthly rainfall is close to a Poisson Distribution where the standard deviation is equal to the average. The record shows that any month can have over 6 times the average for that month. Most of the largest deviations from average were in the 1890s. There only recent large deviation was in Dec 2010 (a record rainfall 668mm 3.9 times the average) which saturated the ground and caused wide spread floods and death in Jan 2011 in Brisbane and the south east Queensland area. If you look at the poster you will see high positive SOI and large negative IPO both together associated with high rainfall and a La Nina.

  11. dodgy geezer says:

    The AMO has been on an upward trend since around 1980, and started its downward trend about 2010. All the researchers are seeing is the 60-year cycle.

    Which suggests that it will be impossible to keep the Global Warming scam going for another 10 years, as by then we will be back into 1970s Ice Age scare territory….

  12. Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. says:

    The problem of these young scientists is that they only look at climate models for answers as if they were a Gospel… The differential heating for the past 42 years over eastern and western Pacific that the models cannot explain, is likely caused by differential trends in overlaying cloud cover/albedo. Climate models are notoriously incapable of simulating observed changes in cloud cover both globally and regionally.

  13. Paul Vaughan says:

    baloney BSc. from lland dove babll00nyUn $0˚C RCllubber$234

  14. Gamecock says:

    ‘but climate models are out of step with observations’

    Obviously, the observations are wrong.

  15. P.A.Semi says:

    Re Paul Vaughan: Thank you for pointing to an older article
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/orbital-resonance-and-the-celestial-origins-of-earths-climatic-changes-why-phi/comment-page-1/

    The match of TSI in the article is remarkable…

    The other cycles of large planets may be related to my freshly discovered ENSO link with Earth’s Angular Momentum disturbances, since these are caused by specific large-planet and Venus positions… (I’ll look later, which ones… Earth is most influenced by resonance with Venus, and then by not-so-well resonance with Jupiter, and then it’s modulated with Saturn, Uranus, Neptune also a little…)
    Somewhere I’ve commented, that if Earth’s resonance with Jupiter was 12:1 precisely, it would have destructive effects on Earth orbit stability… While 5:8 resonance with almost same weight Venus stabilizes Earth’s orbit against large planet influences…

    Paul Vaughan’s trolling with numeric diarrhea without any explanation in that post, which slided comments to page 3, seems to have evolved into dadaist ciphers like “babll00nyUn $0˚C” … At least it is shorter…

    πα½

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    sh0rt primesemi[aware]lly metric 117

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