Megadroughts are part of Australia’s past and may return soon, warn alarmists

Posted: October 9, 2022 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, predictions, Temperature, Uncertainty
Tags: ,

A dried up Lake Hume, 2007 [image credit: suburbanbloke @ Wikipedia]

Attribution of events, known to have happened many times before, to human causes by invoking ‘the role of climate change’ in the modern era is speculation at best, as is any vague claim that humans could ‘increase the risk’ of such events. As usual, climate alarmists want people to feel guilty and nervous.
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Most Australians have known drought in their lifetimes, and have memories of cracked earth and empty streams, paddocks of dust and stories of city reservoirs with only a few weeks’ storage, says The Conversation (via

But our new research finds over the last 1,000 years, Australia has suffered longer, larger and more severe droughts than those recorded over the last century.

These are called “megadroughts,” and they’re likely to occur again in coming decades.

Megadroughts can last multiple decades—or even centuries—with occasional wet years offering only brief relief. Megadroughts can also be shorter periods of very extreme conditions.

We show megadroughts have occurred several times across every inhabited continent over the last two millennia. They’ve dealt profound damage to agriculture and water supplies, increased fire risk, and have even contributed to toppling civilizations.

Unless we incorporate the full potential of Australian drought into our planning, management and design, their impacts on society and the environment will likely worsen in coming decades.

The role of climate change

Instrumental records only go back so far. In Australia, they cover only the last 120 years or so. Scientists can gauge local, yearly climate further back in time, by deciphering clues written in tree rings, corals, and buried ice (known as ice cores), among other archives.

To look at previous occurrences of megadroughts, we consolidated findings drawn from such datasets and a range of other long-term records.

Historically, droughts have been defined by rainfall deficits, and these deficits can be largely attributed to complex interactions between oceans and the atmosphere over a long time. For example, decades-long La Niña conditions have been linked to medieval droughts in North and South America.

In contrast, research suggests human-caused climate change is now playing a more important role in amplifying drought conditions, as rising global temperatures increase evaporation.

There is some uncertainty in climate models about the effect of climate change on rainfall at local and regional scales. However, climate change is putting places that have previously endured megadroughts—such as Australia—at an increased risk of megadroughts in future.

Full article here.

  1. […] Megadroughts are part of Australia’s past and may return soon, warn alarmists | Tallbloke’s … […]

  2. Dave Coleman says:

    One major job to be done is the bush burn offs return to their place as the number one fire mitigation process.
    Until this is addressed the Australian bush will go up again especially with a similar solar cycle as 2019.
    Dave Coleman

  3. Phoenix44 says:

    We show climate has been really bad and different before and we don’t know why, but we know everything about climate…

  4. gjhardy says:

    If bothered to read Cook 2022 they would see that they can’t even define “mega drought” …

    “The use of the megadrought label has therefore been inconsistent, owing partly to an absence of applicable objective criteria that define when a drought becomes a megadrought, or when a period of moisture deficit becomes persistent enough to represent a shift in the mean state (aridification) rather than a discrete transient event (drought).”

  5. oldbrew says:

    Here comes a rare La Niña part three. Unlike the last 3-parter it isn’t following a strong El Niño.

    OCTOBER 20, 2022
    Scientists warn of a rare third-year La Niña
    by Chinese Academy of Sciences

    “This would be the first third-year La Niña since the 1998–2001 event, which was the only such event observed since 1980,” explains Dr. Xianghui Fang from Fudan University, China.
    – – –
    October 2022 La Niña update: snack size
    OCTOBER 13, 2022

    There’s a 75% chance La Niña will be present this winter (December–February); forecasters favor a transition to neutral during February–April 2023. [NOAA blog]

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