Another Kilimanjaro glacier prediction, following earlier failures

Posted: November 3, 2022 by oldbrew in climate, COP27, Emissions, glaciers, predictions, Temperature
Tags: ,


Here’s a recent report, posting a video from 2014 saying the glaciers could be gone by 2020. The report itself, headlined ‘Mount Kilimanjaro’s Glaciers Estimated to be Gone by 2030’, says: ‘In 2006, National Geographic News published some stunning satellite images of Africa, courtesy of United Nations Environment Program. One of the images shows the glacial retreat occurring on Mount Kilimanjaro between 1976 and 2006. Earlier predictions of the glaciers disappearing by 2020 were obviously incorrect.’ (Al Gore was in the 2020 camp).
The next line is interesting: ‘Glacial retreat is attributed to lower precipitation, and not global warming.’ No research is quoted to support that statement, but this journal article says: ‘During the last 120 years, annual precipitation on Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) has decreased by 600–1200 mm (Hemp, 2005a)’. UNESCO pushes the usual CO2 climate theory and hazards another prediction, much more cautious now, as COP27 is about to start.

– – –
Glaciers at many UNESCO World Heritage sites including Yellowstone and Kilimanjaro National Park will likely vanish by 2050, the UN agency warned Thursday, urging leaders to act fast to save the rest, reports Phys.org.

The warning followed a study of 18,600 glaciers at 50 World Heritage sites—covering around 66,000 square kilometres (25,000 square miles)—which found glaciers at a third of the sites were “condemned to disappear”.

The study “shows these glaciers have been retreating at an accelerated rate since 2000 due to CO2 emissions, which are warming temperatures”, UNESCO said.

The glaciers were losing 58 billion tonnes of ice every year, equivalent to the combined annual water use of France and Spain, and were responsible for nearly five percent of observed global sea-level rise, the agency explained.

“Glaciers in a third of the 50 World Heritage sites are condemned to disappear by 2050, regardless of efforts to limit temperature increases,” UNESCO said.

“But it is still possible to save the glaciers in the remaining two thirds of sites if the rise in temperatures does not exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.”

Countries have pledged to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels—a goal the world is set to miss on current emission trends.

“This report is a call to action,” said UNESCO head Audrey Azoulay, ahead of the COP27 climate summit in Egypt starting on Monday.

Full report here.

Comments
  1. […] Another Kilimanjaro glacier prediction, following earlier failures | Tallbloke’s Talkshop (wor… […]

  2. Bloke down the pub says:

    I was first introduced to the cagw debate by Christopher Booker’s column in the Sunday Telegraph. The state of Kilimanjaro’s snow line was a frequent topic and the theory that the cause was deforestation on the mountain slopes leading to reduced precipitation was discussed. Looks like things haven’t advanced in nearly twenty years.

  3. Curious George says:

    The U.S. National Park Service quietly removed from the Glacier National Park signs predicting a demise of all glaciers by 2020.

  4. oldbrew says:

    The doomsters are in more retreat than the glaciers.

  5. Graeme No.3 says:

    Curious George:
    It has been “about to be ice free” for some time.
    1923 Montana Glacier could disappear by 1948
    Says Professor Waterman. Medford Mail Tribune (Oregon) Dec. 29
    1924 Montana Glacier could disappear in a few years
    Says Dr. Elrod
    1924 Montana Glacier could disappear in 25 years
    Says Dr. Matthes US Geological Survey
    1952 Montana’s Glacier Park may need new name
    The giant glaciers are melting away and could be gone in 50 years
    say naturalists The Post-Standard (Syracuse New York) Mar 05, 1952
    2009 No more Glaciers in Montana by 2020?
    National Geographic News March 2 2009
    2010 Signs installed about glaciers being gone by 2020
    2014 No more Glaciers in Montana by 2034?
    What will they call Glacier National Park (Montana) in 30 years when all the glaciers are gone? New York Times Nov. 22, 2014
    2019/20 Signs removed (all 29 of them)
    2021 All of the glaciers in Glacier National Park are expected to be gone by 2030,” said Noah Greenwald, director of endangered species for the Center for Biological Diversity

  6. oldbrew says:

    Jiggery-pokery alert…

    What Is Going on With the Glaciers at Glacier National Park?
    5 days ago

    It has now been seven years since the government’s glacier-size tables have been updated

    By Roger Roots, J.D., Ph.D.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/29/what-is-going-on-with-the-glaciers-at-glacier-national-park/

  7. cognog2 says:

    With the upcoming COP27 Fiasco, there seems to be a MSM race for who can publish the best lies, direst predictions and best doom laden analysis of all.

    A few minutes ago on the BBC a PhD idiot said that renewables were better than Nuclear for balancing the Grid to meet rapid demand changes etc. Does he think that renewable fairies kick in when the wind stops?

    This is the sort of thing we are now being subjected to on a massive scale by the UN and its compliant acolytes. Who is pulling the strings and what on Earth has happened to scientific integrity?

  8. Graeme No.3 says:

    cognog2:
    The grid was balanced successfully for 50 years before renewables were introduced. Perhaps he meant that (very expensive) batteries or gas (or diesel) fired “peaking plants” are renewables?
    Or perhaps he is a gullible fool?

  9. Phoenix44 says:

    Cognog2:
    Scientific integrity? Never existed. Science is the same as banking, advancements despite endless fraud, error, hubris, ego, arguments, law suits, failures, lies and resistance to change. We have this strange, Golden Age view of science, perhaps created during and after the War as pat of state propoganda. We have the Scientific Method, perr review, replication, precisely because scientists can’t be trusted. What works – or used to, sort of – is the process, not the people. But increasingly it does not work. In some areas – the social sciences, epidiomolgy post-smoking, climate science, medicine – it has not worked for 50 years or more. We live in a world where we have been conditioned to believe that what “science” says is rigorous and true, but it is simply not.

  10. oldbrew says:

    ‘Glacial retreat is attributed to lower precipitation, and not global warming.’

    Possible effect of fires?

    Fire raging on south side of Tanzania’s Mount Kilimanjaro
    23 October 2022
    https://news.sky.com/story/fire-raging-on-south-side-of-tanzanias-mount-kilimanjaro-12728106

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