Met Office says 2023 set to be one of the hottest years ‘ever’

Posted: December 20, 2022 by oldbrew in climate, ENSO, MET office, modelling, predictions, Temperature

Of course the Met Office doesn’t have ‘forever’ data. The two main factors here seem to be the recovery from the Little Ice Age (not mentioned) and El Niño/La Niña effects, which are admitted to be a, if not the, dominant factor. Human-caused effects are asserted but evidence is lacking.
– – –
2023 is set to be one of the world’s hottest years ever as the temperatures continue to rise, says the Bournemouth Daily Echo.

It comes as the Met Office has predicted that global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels.

They added that in 2023, the global average temperature will be around 1.2C above what they were before humans impacted climate change.

The prediction would make it the 10th year in a row to see global average temperatures reach at least 1C above what they were in pre-industrial times, measured as the period 1850-1900. [Talkshop comment – wrong dates].

Currently, the hottest year on record since 1850 is 2016, a year that saw an “El Niño” climate pattern in the Pacific which pushes up global temperatures on top of global warming trends.

2023 could be one of the hottest years ever, Met Office predicts

Head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, Professor Adam Scaife said: “Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”

The lead of the 2023 global temperature forecast from the Met Office, Dr Nick Dunstone said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.

“La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.”

He also added that next year could see an end to the La Niña state, saying: “For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.

“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

Full article here.

  1. Graeme No.3 says:

    So if I understood correctly, what he is saying is that natural changes (La Niña) made the Earth cooler, overwhelming man made heating and natural changes (El Niño) will made the Earth warmer, what ever the effect of man made heating.

  2. Curious George says:

    We don’t yet have the resources needed to make a La Niña year “the hottest ever”, but we have great expectations for 2023.

  3. catweazle666 says:

    From my – admittedly inexpert – reading of the graphs, numbers etc, it is my opinion that the “climate” – whatever that is – is currently in a cooling phase.

  4. oldbrew says:

    John Christy on climate models: ‘So we should not use them to tell us what’s going to happen in the future since they haven’t even gotten us to the right place in the last 40 years.’

    On transport: ‘And another thing about Henry Ford: He didn’t go around getting the government to kill all the horses so you’d have to buy his cars.’

    From this blog post:

  5. saighdear says:

    …. hoch man, that means the weather stations will have to be re-positioned close to , well now, just somewhere else .. better gonnae dae that , I keep hearing, but wod-de-hull! if it gets results. Where’s Wilf & Claudia? back from the Highlands yet ? ( Traitor series – for the uniinitiated )

  6. Phoenix44 says:

    This is so simplistic it hurts. Now a natural cooling may end, it will be hotter because our model says hotter. They don’t understand and cannot model the natural variability they admit is there, but are certain they can model the climate without that. Which assumes natural variability isn’t “the climate”, when it probably is.

  7. catweazle666 says:

    “Which assumes natural variability isn’t “the climate”, when it probably is.”

    Sorry P44, natural variability has been cancelled, get with the program!

  8. stpaulchuck says:

    ” at least 1C above pre-industrial levels.” that would be the LIA ending and gee, we’re getting warmer… back to status quo ante. Call me when they actually do some science.

  9. Chaswarnertoo says:

    Met office. Hmmmm.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Back in the real world…an ‘Arctic blast’…

    US winter storm to bring coldest Christmas in decades
    Published 5 hours ago

    A major winter storm sweeping the US this week may bring the coldest Christmas in four decades to parts of the country, say forecasters.

    The “once-in-a-generation” cold snap – which began in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, before churning east – will become a “bomb cyclone” by Friday.

    More than 90 million people are under winter weather alerts across 37 states.

    About 80% of the nation is set to experience sub-zero temperatures, including places as far south as Texas.

    Named Winter Storm Elliot by the Weather Channel, the arctic blast is expected to deliver the coldest Christmas to the Midwest since the late 1980s, according to forecasts cited by US media.

    Even Florida, the Sunshine State, is projected to see its coldest Christmas in 30 years.

    The National Weather Service (NWS) said bone-chilling temperatures of -50F (-45C) and -70F were possible by the end of this week in some parts of the country.
    – – –
    Good job the Arctic is ‘rapidly warming’ or those temperatures would be really cold 🙄

  11. wilpretty says:

    I considered the Met Office hyping up of temperature increases to be downright dishonest.
    The rate of increase of temperature is equivalent to 3 days per year each being 1 degree warmer than the previous year.
    Not something to be declared ‘news’.

  12. Bloke down the pub says:

    I’ll be sure to keep my waterproofs and winter jumpers handy then.

  13. oldbrew says:

    Here it is…

    Temperatures plunge as low as -31C as ‘bomb cyclone’ weather storm hits US
    Forecasters said temperatures in some areas have dropped more than 30 degrees in a matter of minutes.

    Thursday 22 December 2022 21:22, UK

  14. mort says:

    don’t think elliot works here. the little kid from E.T. the movie. not scary enough. I suggest Suzy. Winter Storm Suzy.

    now that’s scary

  15. watersider says:

    The Bournemouth Daily Echo? Indeed a well known source of expert weather forecasting.
    I read some time ago that one of the great satans (George Soros) enterprises was sponsoring global warming propaganda in many less well known rural newspapers across the world, in other words in addition to bribing el beeb and the gruinard he is splashing the dosh far and wide.
    Which may explain this article from some rural English backwater.

  16. oldbrew says:

    The Bournemouth Daily Echo is owned by Newsquest, ‘the second largest publisher of regional and local newspapers in the United Kingdom.’

  17. oldbrew says:

    Arctic comes to parts of southern Florida.

  18. oldmanK says:

    Take a look at the planetary positions, including presently, the moon. All on to one side from earth. And its winter solstice for N hemisphere.

    Similar was with storm Ian, new moon and close approach and conjunction Jupiter. Plus the timing; midnight for Florida.

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