.
.
What happens next?
Jan. 2, 2022: December was a busy month on the sun. How busy? Senol Sanli of Bursa, Turkey, answered the question by stacking 26 days of sun photos (Dec. 2nd – 27th) from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:
“There were more than 24 sunspot groups, some of them quite large, congested in two bands on opposite sides of the sun’s equator,” says Sanli.
The congestion of dark cores catapulted the monthly sunspot number to its highest value in 7 years:
This plot from NOAA shows the ascending progression of Solar Cycle 25. It has outperformed the official forecast for 35 months in a row. If the trend continues, Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than originally expected–possibly both. Stay tuned for lots more sunspots.
This story was brought to you by Spaceweather.com
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Wikipedia’s list of solar cycles has this section:
Comparison of cycles 24 and 25 by 13-month Running Averages
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles#Comparison_of_cycles_24_and_25_by_13-month_Running_Averages
It says: ‘The table shows averages for each hemisphere and the average for the entire Sun.’
. . .
My comparison:
In solar cycle 24, South started behind North and ‘overtook’ it in May 2013, nearly 4.5 years into the cycle.
In solar cycle 25, North started behind South and ‘overtook’ it in June 2022, only 2.5 years into the cycle. (NB Results are 6 months behind current date, so no data yet given after June 22).
May 2013 to June 2022 is 9 years 1 month.
. . .
Whether that tells us anything is hard to know without equivalent data from previous cycles.
BoM says:
The ENSO Outlook continues at LA NIÑA, but La Niña is weakening.
NINO indices in the tropical Pacific have warmed slightly compared to two weeks ago and are easing away from La Niña thresholds. There are also substantial warm anomalies in the sub-surface. However, the atmosphere remains indicative of La Niña.
Climate models predict a return to neutral ENSO during January or February 2023.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
[overwritten every 2 weeks]
These have occurred…
Geomagnetic storms likely on January 4 and 5 due to the combined effects of a CME and CH HSS
Monday, January 2, 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares through January 28.
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels from December 26, 2022, to January 1, 2023.
https://watchers.news/2023/01/02/geomagnetic-storms-likely-on-january-4-and-5-due-to-the-combined-effects-of-a-cme-and-ch-hss/
Video cites this journal article: Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Using an Optimized Long Short-Term Memory Mode with F10.7 (December 2022)
…which says in its abstract:
‘The predicted peak amplitude of F10.7 for SC-25 is 156.3, and the maximum value of SSN is calculated as 147.9, which implies that SC-25 will be stronger than SC-24. SC-25 will reach its peak in July 2025.’
Of course with the sun it’s not just a case of who has the best mathematical jiggery-pokery, but no harm in trying 🤓
It’s all happening now…
This is the 3rd X-flare in a week, and each flare has come from a different sunspot. It’s not just a single active region; the *whole sun* is becoming more active. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% chance of another X-flare on Jan. 11th.
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=01&year=2023
Sunspot number: 201