Temps Cause CO2 Changes, Not the Reverse. 2023 Update

Posted: January 6, 2023 by oldbrew in atmosphere, data, Temperature
Tags: ,

Not forgetting that CO2 is only a minor trace gas, at ~0.04% of the atmosphere.

Science Matters

This post is about proving that CO2 changes in response to temperature changes, not the other way around, as is often claimed.  In order to do  that we need two datasets: one for measurements of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time and one for estimates of Global Mean Temperature changes over time.

Climate science is unsettling because past data are not fixed, but change later on.  I ran into this previously and now again in 2021 and 2022 when I set out to update an analysis done in 2014 by Jeremy Shiers (discussed in a previous post reprinted at the end).  Jeremy provided a spreadsheet in his essay Murray Salby Showed CO2 Follows Temperature Now You Can Too posted in January 2014. I downloaded his spreadsheet intending to bring the analysis up to the present to see if the results hold up.  The two sources of data were:


View original post 1,375 more words

  1. P.A.Semi says:

    What is interesting, that with all that humbug about CO2, no one measures it except at one volcano island in middle of Pacific…?

    (Beside that, I’ve just once seen someone actually measuring CO2 – after a minute talking under face-mask he measured over 9000 ppm)

    Where are satellite measurements showing where is most CO2 and where it most changes ?!
    Because what matters for fraudsters are just adjusted computer models and policy rules bringing money to right coffers, but actual science is nowhere nearby…

    This article despite being very good also relies on Mauna Loa CO2 record, because no other is available… Or is it?


  2. catweazle666 says:

    “Where are satellite measurements showing where is most CO2 and where it most changes ?!”



    It isn’t particularly self-explanatory but very powerful when you get the hang of it, you can change the date and examine seasonal alterations, for example.

  3. oldbrew says:

    NOAA ‘graphs show monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites’ – since 1980. (GML = Global Monitoring Laboratory).


    Still no Covid blip 🤔

  4. Adam Gallon says:

    You’re wrong across the board, do you not check before you write such tripe?
    CO2 levels are measured at numerous sites globally, from Alaska to Antarctica & the measurements are pretty much the same.
    Satellite measurements do exist, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06963-4
    The results show the large emissions come from tropical rainforests & rice paddies.

  5. P.A.Semi says:

    About various CO2 records:
    … Then why everyone cites Mauna Loa, and nothing else is easily found…?
    (I’ll check the sources you provide, but Nature magazine probably does not have download links of raw gridded data?)

    @catweazle – the url with # is most probably an interactive TOY and it won’t be available for download and analysis? (It’s not compatible with my web-browser and shows only black background…)

    @oldbrew – there is minor “blip” in 2021, and the slope (of black line in that chart) changes in start of 2020, with 2018- start of 2020 slope being higher, and slope since start of 2020 little decreased… But it’s minuscule… The human release of CO2 is minor when compared to natural one, but is not zero…


    Then – while the article is most probably right and the correlation is admirable, but the half-year lag in CO2 levels is artifact of difference in statistical methods used:

    – The temperature change is against the baseline and is charted, when it happens.
    – The change in CO2 is difference from previous year, and when some change happens in between, it is charted somewhere 0-1 year later, by average 0.5 year later…


  6. catweazle666 says:

    P.A.Semi, the whole object of the earth.nullschool.net site is to permit interactivity with the target datasets, of which there are many, it is not a downloadable database as such.

    Try it in a different browser, I’ve tried it in Chrome and Safari and it works in both.

  7. P.A.Semi says:

    @catweazle – using nullschool is too complicated for me, I’ve got only Firefox 45 at this computer… (Nothing else for security reasons…)
    Maybe later… I don’t prefer these toys, I’d like data to analyze with my tools…
    (Does it have an option to make monthly averages? Trends in those averages?)

    @Adam Gallon
    The Nature article references another Nature article, which references NASA OCO-2 satellite, that was launched in 2014, because in 2009 the rocket failed…
    But the data are hidden behind password registration and are in insane resolution 2.25 km/pixel, making it 57Mb file per day, which would be 173 Gb of data from 2014 until today…? Would it be 17000 pixel image – daily?
    Quite unaffordable for me and probably for most other researchers too…

    That’s probably why no one is using that or referencing that, so that I didn’t see it yet anywhere ?

    It rather seems intentionally hidden behind these obstructions, so that public does not ask, why Amazon and South Africa releases significantly more CO2 than China, USA and Europe combined ? Why most of CO2 release in Europe happens in retrograde Balkan? And why was there a CO2 plume in middle of Sahara? (as can be seen on that one image in Nature article, a monthly average in Oct 2014…)

    The new satellites, that Europe plans to tax and harass citizens, are planned in same super-high resolution?
    It really seems like an obstruction against scientific use, and only usable for police-like force to harass citizens and economy…


  8. avro607 says:

    Is there not another way to measure CO2 emissions besides the Mauna Lua way.
    Misspelt perhaps,but the name Jarowowski comes to mind.

  9. catweazle666 says:

    This any interest, avro607?
    You’ll need to download the pdf.


  10. catweazle666 says:

    P.A. Semi, you might find the original NASA site more enlightening, at least when you click on it it gives a much higher resolution image.


    As to “why Amazon and South Africa releases significantly more CO2 than China, USA and Europe combined ? Why most of CO2 release in Europe happens in retrograde Balkan? And why was there a CO2 plume in middle of Sahara?”

    Some time ago the Japanese launched a similar satellite unfortunately it didn’t show what it was expected to show and the project was discontinued.

    Then with considerable fanfare NASA launched theirs, which unfortunately also showed that the CO2 didn’t seem to be where it was supposed to be, and it all seemed to go quiet…

    Something similar happened to the surface temperature satellites that were launched in 1979, NASA seems to now ignore them and has reverted to measuring surface temperatures on airports behind spooling up 747s to get the “correct” numbers, the only source now is Roy Spencer at UAH.


    The nulschool thing is worth the effort, it shows differences of up to 40ppm between different locations at the same date and time correlated with wind and temperature – and not the ones you would expect – plus you can set it to date and time so as to get a seasonal picture, it’s a very potent piece of visualisation software but as you found out with the NASA stuff, if it was available it would amount to probably terabytes of data.

    As to your security concerns, some of the antivirus packages have a secure browser, Avast for example, which can be used without the intrusive antivirus program, my wife uses it for banking.

  11. avro607 says:

    Thanks catweazle666.I,ve been away,but will now peruse.

  12. P.A.Semi says:

    I have wrongly written in January 7, 2023 at 1:46 pm
    that they shift CO2 anomaly 0-1 year right by a statistical method used,
    which was my incorrect assumption…

    After separating the trend (stable rising by 0.1-0.2 ppm/month), yearly cycle (+-2ppm yearly oscillation with average maximum +1.96ppm in April and -2.4ppm in August and September) and anomaly in yearly cycle, thereby using another method (that does not depend on previous year but on gaussian smoothing and averaged yearly cycle),

    then I came to a serie that has very similar timing of peaks as their method (value – previous_year_value) …

    So I consider their claim validated, that CO2 changes lag temperature changes…
    (while I didn’t verify it yet with UAH record…)


  13. P.A.Semi says:

    The main problem with OCO2 is the images are in TOO HIGH resolution…
    Second problem is registration required to download them…
    But who can store and analyse 57Mb daily for ten years? (it’s 200 Gb data)

    The http://www.nasa.gov does not work in this browser either…


  14. catweazle666 says:

    “Second problem is registration required to download them…”

    I’ve just downloaded it without registering, right click on image, gives “+” cursor click that and it shows large image.
    Then right click on image, select “Save image as…” and continue accordingly.

    It’s interesting to note that in your above graphs there is no evidence whatsoever of the purported ~17% reduction in anthropogenic emissions during the pandemic years, incidentally, indicating that anthropogenic emissions have zero effect on the overall CO2 cycle.

    As to “But who can store and analyse 57Mb daily for ten years? (it’s 200 Gb data)”, if you look on the internet these days you can pick up a 2TB external USB hard drive for a ridiculously low price, cheapest around £26, so that takes care of the storage at least, I use one for my Apple Time Machine drive.

  15. stpaulchuck says:

    P.A.Semi says:
    January 11, 2023 at 12:21 am

    (while I didn’t verify it yet with UAH record…)

    You’d better be VERY careful about using land based temperature data. Check out the research of siting of the measuring devices for starters. Secondly use the raw data not the “adjusted” data. Every time the CO2 goes up they ratchet up the “adjustments” so that temperature follows CO2 in the final, published data. It’s a disgrace.

    a couple decades ago, various research scientists plotted temperature and CO2 level going back thousands of years (using analogs). Bottom line is that climate CO2 rose about 80 years or so AFTER the oceans warmed (Henry’s Law of dissolved gases aka the hot/cold soda pop effect). They have continuously tortured the data with unsupportable “adjustments” to make them seem to line up in time.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Temperature adjusters trying to outwit nature. Good luck with that 😎

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