N. Hemisphere Temps Set To Fall Over Next 25 Years, Say Top Intl. Scientists

Posted: January 24, 2023 by oldbrew in alarmism, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, predictions, research, Temperature

Too much hot air

Predictions like this may or may not come true. Warmists may have to wheel out their standard ‘natural cooling masking human-caused warming’ excuse again.
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Whisper it quietly – and don’t tell Al ‘Boiling Oceans’ Gore – but the Northern Hemisphere may be entering a temperature cooling phase until the 2050s with a decline up to 0.3°C.

By extension, the rest of the globe will also be cooled, says Chris Morrison (via Climate Change Dispatch).

These sensational findings, ignored by the mainstream media, were released last year and are the work of six top international scientists led by Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

Published in the Nature journal Climate and Atmospheric Science, the scientists say that the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, an important sea current that has been pumping warmer water into the Arctic, is weakening and that’s leading to a cooler North Atlantic area and lower temperatures, as was observed in the period 1950-1970.

Certainly, current observations back up these suggestions. As we reported recently, Arctic summer sea ice stopped declining about a decade ago and has shown recent growth.

The Greenland surface ice sheet grew by almost 500 billion tonnes in the year to August 2022, and this was nearly equivalent to its estimated annual loss.

Of course, climate alarmists have not quite caught up with these recent trends, with Sir David Attenborough telling his BBC Frozen Planet II audience that the summer sea ice could all be gone within 12 years.

Interestingly, the six scientists, whose work has helped debunk the ‘settled’ science myth, still attribute some global warming to human causes.

The Northern Hemisphere is characterized by “several multidecadal climate trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change.”

But producing work that predicts 30 years of global cooling puts them outside the ‘settled’ narrative that claims human-produced carbon dioxide is the main – possibly the only – determinant of global and local temperatures.

At the very least, it dials down the hysteria pushing for almost immediate punitive net-Zero measures. Lead author Omrani is reported to have said that the expected warming pause “gives us time to work out technical, political, and economic solutions before the next warming phase, which will take over again from 2050.”

Needless to say, such thinking was absent at last week’s Davos climate freak show, with elite delegates ramping up the fearmongering to record heights.

Former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore went into full meltdown, ranting about “rain bombs” and “boiling oceans”.

Current U.S. climate envoy and private-jet owner John Kerry described the gathering as a “select” group of people trying to “save the planet”, while chief UN carnival barker Antonio Guterres claimed we were flirting with climate disaster and every week brought a new horror story.

Of course, some might suggest that in the circumstances this was an all-round excellent effort to whip up more money – ahem, I mean more genuine climate concern – at a time when corals, Arctic sea ice, the Greenland ice sheet, polar bears, and now global warming are having to be retired from the poster-alarm portfolio.

As we have noted on numerous occasions, rising global temperatures ran out of steam about two decades ago. Accurate satellite records show pauses from around 2000 to 2012 and a current one lasting over eight years.

Continued here.
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  1. Phoenix44 says:

    The reason climate science is wrong is that it operates now either entirely out of context or deliberately tries to erase context.

  2. brianrlcatt says:

    No shit Sherlock. The cycles also say so. Ludecke and Weiss did this work back in 2017, by frequency analysis of multiple temperature time series from the last 2Ka, then projecting the reconvolved natural frequencies detected in the record forward. Simples! An idiot could do it. But the idiots prefer to make models using guesses to use what nature is telling us from observations. As Feynman pointed out, the way of the modeller is better because a model cannot, by the nature of its creation, be proven or disproven, so the grants keep coming. Academics are a cynically corrupt bunch trying to avoid real work for as long as possible at taxpayers expense, it seems to me, who has worked in academe and the real World of “succeed or get fired”.

    And also, the coming cooling to 2050, which is in reality a hiccup, not a turning point, is more likely caused by solar wind cycles, because the temperature cycles are highly correlated with observed Cosmic ray flux as measured by proxy C-14 and Be-10, by many observers. Maybe the atmospheric mumbo jumbo here is part of the effect of varying cosmic ray fluxes due to changing solar wind flux? I have presented the predictions of L&W together with temperature time series frequency analysis and the Steinhilber Cosmic Ray frequency analysis. To use a now less popular phrase “Can you see what it is yet?” . What’s the frequency, Clarence?

    With apologies to honest academics who do deterministic science that involves definite theories, that can be proven wrong or right by independent repetition of validation by observation/experiment. Real science.

  3. ivan says:

    Ah, that explains why we have snow here on the French/Spanish border now. It is the second time in the 30 years I have been here and we have daytime temps of around 2 C with the night temps being 0 C or lower. Anyone would think we have ‘global cooling’ now.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Eleven regions issued with weather warnings as Spain shivers with widespread snow and frost
    The weather agency Aemet is forecasting temperatures down to -10C in some areas
    Monday, 23 January 2023


  5. JB says:

    “sensational findings… the work of six top international scientists”
    For a category that is attributive rather than educative why does being international or claiming to be at some ethereal top make them anymore a “scientist?”

    “decline up to 0.3°C.” That’s sensational alright.

    Will anyone notice? I won’t. The difference in average temperatures between the peak of the Medieval Warm and Little Ice Age trough periods was all of ~3ºC. The cycle before that was <4ºC.

    The Chicken Little allegory should be modernized to include conventions with paper hats and chittering parakeet subcommittees.

  6. brianrlcatt says:

    Just to say your temperatures are polar, not global. Equatorial variability is roughly half Polar. As seen in Brazil – 5 deg colder versus 10 deg at both poles during the last glacial phase. Also seen in the Holocene, for example the Makassa strait sedimentary data shows 1.5 deg range when the polar range was 3deg. As half the heat is incident between +/-25 deg latitude and this represents 40% of the planet’s surface area, it seems likely the global average will be slightly more than the linear mean by latitude than the average of the two values, so between 1.5 and 2 deg when polar range is 3 degrees.
    1.8 deg global change between MWP and LIA? So we are 0.6 deg shy of that now, as we return to the cooling phase of the compound short term solar cycles.

    I confidenetly predict, based on the natural cycles the IPCC deny the hundreds of reported observations of, that we will be wishing we got to over 1.5 deg above the LIA in a few hundred years, as the next and colder LIA of the neo glacial phase of the next cycle is reached. Best…..

    “In geology, the past is the best guide to the future”. BRLC

  7. saighdear says:

    Mallorca, Italy, Adriatic coast , Croatia and Austria 9Areas around the Adriatic) receiving Half to 1 Metre snow bringing most things to a halt in News today.

  8. JB says:

    The temp delta I sited came from longerangeweather.com I realize there are regional and local variations. Here, we’ve had cold snaps every January for the last 3 years. The first one blew up my RV battery. I had to put battery blankets on the diesel trucks. But this is not new, as you say the past is the best guide, I’ve been through it before.
    0.3ºC I don’t care about. Wouldn’t even notice that in a T-shirt. But 10-15º colder, yeah that changes a lot of things around here.

  9. oldbrew says:

    JAN 24, 2023
    Climatologist David Dilley: ‘We’re Going Into A Global Cooling Cycle Now’


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