Sunspots [image credit: NASA]
Nothing better than actual observations to make a forecast change. The sun may have put one over the pundits again.
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Solar Maximum is coming–maybe this year, says Spaceweather.com.
New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024, a full year earlier than other forecasts.
“This is based on our work with the Termination Event,” explains Scott McIntosh, lead author of a paper describing the prediction, published in the January 2023 edition of Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences.
The “Termination Event” is a relatively new concept in solar physics. It is a period of time on the sun as short as one month when magnetic fields from one solar cycle abruptly die (they are “terminated”) allowing magnetic fields from the next solar cycle to take over. After a Termination Event, the new solar cycle skyrockets.
McIntosh and colleagues have studied termination events for many solar cycles, and they have discovered that its timing can predict the future. “Our latest work pinpoints the Termination Event between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 at mid-Dec. 2021,” explains McIntosh. “This tells us about the next Solar Max.”
According to their paper, it is coming between late 2023 and mid 2024, with a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184±63 (95% confidence).
This means Solar Cycle 25 could be twice as strong as old Solar Cycle 24, which peaked back in 2009.
Their forecast jibes with another big event. The sun’s global magnetic field is about to flip. This happens near the peak of every solar cycle.
Read more here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Reblogged this on Utopia, you are standing in it!.
According to my findings… we already passed it…
(1) (PDF) Solar Max has Passed January 2023
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368575309_Solar_Max_has_Passed_January_2023
And! Something highly unusual is happening on the Sun!
Difference ISN vs 10.7 Solar Flux vs High Resolution SN – Solar activity – SpaceWeatherLive
https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2752-difference-isn-vs-107-solar-flux-vs-high-resolution-sn/
NASA’s prediction of July 2025 for solar max. (5.5 years after min.) may have been based on the last two cycles (just under 5.5y after min.).
What Will Solar Cycle 25 Look Like?
Sep 17, 2020
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cycle-25-look-like-sun-prediction-model
NASA suspected its forecast was on the ropes, here…
Solar Cycle 25 is Exceeding Predictions and Showing Why We Need the GDC Mission
July 27, 2022
https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2022/07/27/solar-cycle-25-is-exceeding-predictions-and-showing-why-we-need-the-gdc-mission/
a peak total monthly sunspot number of 184±63 (95% confidence)
Hard to be wrong with a range like that, over 3 years into the cycle 🤨
[…] Solar maximum may arrive later this year, say researchers […]
A “sudden termination” event affecting the Sun’s energy output seems incongruous with solar activity being highly correlated to the harmonics of planetary motion. Nothing “sudden” about planetary movement.
Seems no scientists have accepted the predictions of Miles Mathis (http://milesmathis.com/index.html) based on planet alignments. Here is one of his papers http://milesmathis.com/cycle.pdf. One does not have to agree with everything miles writes but he has been correct with his predictions of cycle 24 and cycle 25 (so far) Here is another paper by a Dutch person comparing Miles’ predictions http://milesmathis.com/solmin.pdf
I was looking for the link to the web site in which one can obtain planetary alignments for any time in the past, present or future. It is in one of Miles’ paper on sunspots. I have it somewhere on my computer. Planetary alignments not only explains sunspot cycles but may also explain weather, climate and volcanic eruptions cycles.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
Found the web site for Fourmilab (a Swiss site) https://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar/action?sys=-Sf
Arnholm’s solar simulator 2 is easy enough to use.
https://arnholm.org/astro/sun/sc24/sim2/
The solar maximum is correlated to the steepness in the decline in the solar magnetic field as measured by Wilcox. The graphic compares cycle 24 absolute field strength to cycle 25. Yes the sun is near its peak in sun spots. The interesting phase will be the fields behavior on the other side of zero. Will the magnetic field strength grow as quickly as it declined or will the curve flatten out in a short period of time?
‘Above: The sun’s polar magnetic field (red=N, blue=S) is weakening and will soon flip’
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=13&month=04&year=2023
The graph is completely wrong! Leif Svalgaard made a terrible mistake! And all the astronomers made the same colossal mistake!
(1) (PDF) The Anti-Phase Solution for the Average Polar Magnetic Field
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367021425_The_Anti-Phase_Solution_for_the_Average_Polar_Magnetic_Field
Forecasts that change whenever the data contradicts them have limited scientific value.
Robustness of Solar-Cycle Empirical Rules Across Different Series Including an Updated Active-Day Fraction (ADF) Sunspot Group Series
Ilya Usoskin · Gennady Kovaltsov · Wilma Kiviaho
Received: 27 October 2020
The Waldmeier rule have been analyzed in three formulations (Table 3):
i) Classical formulation (the magnitude of a cycle is inversely related to the length of its ascending phase) appears significant for the GSN-HS series and highly significant for the other three series.
ii) Simplified formulation (the magnitude of a cycle is inversely related to its entire length) is insignificant for all of the series.
iii) (n + 1) formulation (the magnitude of a cycle is inversely related to the total length of the preceding cycle) was found significant for the GSN-HS series and highly significant for the other three series.
Thus, the Waldmeier rule in its classical and (n+1) formulations is robust and independent of the exact sunspot (group) series.
Click to access Usoskin_ADF_SP_2021.pdf
Auroras @ 29°32’N!
Taken by Brad Dwight on April 23, 2023 @ Terlingua, Texas, USA
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=195567
‘The sun’s corona was spikey like a porcupine–a telltale sign that Solar Max is approaching.’
— https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=27&month=04&year=2023
View from Pebble Beach, Australia, on April 20th when the Moon passed in front of the sun…
[…] last one. However, at least one group of researchers has already forecast a peak around now (see this April 2023 Talkshop post). The latest (i.e. just revised) Hathaway/Upton forecast graphic is here. What the value is of SC […]