The SIS Group surveys the recently active commentary/prediction scene, finishing with climate alarm central aka the UN. Elsewhere, NOAA’s ENSO blog explains Why making El Niño forecasts in the spring is especially anxiety-inducing. Warmists are willing one to get going soon.
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The story begins at https://www.netzerowatch.com/rapid-ocean-temperature-rise-puzzles-scientists/ … rapid ocean temperature changes are on the way as the planet moves from a persistant La Niña position into El Niño conditions.
This will please the alarmists as global ocean temperatures appear to be a forewarning of El Niño – the only few times in the last 25 years that there has been an upward spike in global temperatures.
Mostly, it has flatlined.
Continued here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Theodor Landscheidt studied modern-era solar cycles, and at the time (1999?) reckoned ’19 El Niños of the total of 60 fall at the interval between 0.32 and 0.5 and only 41 at the remaining interval 0.82.’
Click to access SolarActivityControlsElNinoAndLaNina.pdf
The current solar cycle is approaching the 0.32 stage (about 3.5 years into an average 11~ year cycle).
[…] El Niño on the way? […]
MAY 8, 2023.
El Nino: Nature’s Ginormous Climate Change Battery
Derakhshani’s Hypothesis: The El Nino—Southern Oscillation is an energy storage battery so big it drives more than the weather; it drives climate change. CO2 is a pointless diversion.
. . .
Dr. Derakhshani asks us to think of El Nino, and its counterpart La Nina, not as temporary events with isolated short-term yet significant global temperature effects but rather as a continuous exchange of heat from the Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere (and back again) that intimately correlates to modern climate change and leaves no room for CO2 greenhouse gas-driven climate change.
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Is the good doctor the Mad Max of physics? Or is he a brilliant example of how science is supposed to work: questioning the status quo to see if it holds up?
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…when global satellite temperature variations are adjusted for the temperature impacts of the MEI [Multivariate ENSO Index] variations from 1979 to 2015, global warming disappears.
https://climatechangedispatch.com/el-nino-natures-ginormous-climate-change-battery/
It’s amazing that El Ninos can cause extremely rapid sea and air temperature changes but the less rapid sea and air temperature changes we’ve seen over the last 100 years or so can only be CO2 because they are so rapid…
WMO praying for an El Nino to give its climate alarmism a boost…
https://www.emergingrisks.co.uk/el-nino-to-return-in-2023-says-wmo/
BoM: Eastern Pacific warms, but little atmospheric response
The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. This means that while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2023. This is about twice the normal likelihood. [bold added]
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
(May 9 edition)
Below are two models regarding El Nino that (because of the high degree of auto correlation in the data) may make valid predictions over the short term of one to two years. The models using the ENSO and the MEI.v2 data predict a mild one year El Nino starting in 2023 and ending in 2024.
ENSO BLOG MAY 11, 2023
May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door
According to ERSSTv5 (our most consistent historical dataset), the April average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for ENSO) was 0.1 °C above the long-term (1991–2020) average. This value is up 0.2 °C from March and is the first time the monthly Niño-3.4 temperature was warmer than average since April of 2020. [bold added]
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-knocking-door
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No climate crisis signal there.
Harald Yndestad: ‘The modern SST index maximum Asst(t) = (2.53, 2025) is a 500-year event after the maximum Asst(t) = (2.75, 1525) and a 1000-year event from the SST index maximum Asst(t) = (2.86, 1024).’
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2022.839794/full (2022)
A big drop to a 2070 SST index minimum is also predicted.
Roy Spencer writes…
Americans Increasingly Choose a Warmer Life
May 9th, 2023
We hear that a new El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean is likely to push global-average temperatures to new record highs in 2023.
Setting aside the fact that we have no idea if current temperatures are warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period of ~1,000 years ago, I have to ask…
So what?
. . .
There’s a reason why people are flocking to Texas and Florida, and not to the Dakotas or Maine. Ultimately, it’s due to the climate. So, while some of us like to think we are Saving the Earth by buying a Tesla, our migration habits are telling a different story.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2023/05/americans-increasingly-choose-a-warmer-life/
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How much of that is due to immigration is another question. Texas and California have a border with Mexico, for example.
You can see the El Nino building up in the Hadsst4 dataset:
Joker in the pack?
Published: 08 May 2023
Recent state transition of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre
The anti-cyclonic Beaufort Gyre is the dominant circulation of the Canada Basin and the largest freshwater reservoir in the Arctic Ocean.
. . .
Our results imply that continued thinning of the cold halocline layer could modulate the present stable state, allowing for a freshwater release. This, in turn, could freshen the subpolar North Atlantic, impacting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01184-5
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First Evidence of the Beaufort Gyre’s Stabilization: A Precursor to a Freshwater Catastrophe?
By WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION MAY 10, 2023
“The community has been confounded by the fact that this gyre has kept growing and growing, and everyone is expecting it to release,” Pickart said. “Wouldn’t it be something if the gyre system and its freshwater accumulation and release could become somewhat predictable? Then, perhaps, we could also shed light on what a warming climate is going to do to this system.”
https://scitechdaily.com/first-evidence-of-the-beaufort-gyres-stabilization-a-precursor-to-a-freshwater-catastrophe/
More from Woods Hole:
“Follow the water: Cold, relatively fresh water from the Pacific Ocean enters the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait. It is swept into the Beaufort Gyre and exits into the North Atlantic Ocean through three gateways (Fram, Davis, and Hudson Straits). Warmer, denser waters from the Atlantic penetrate the Arctic Ocean beneath colder water layers, which lie atop the warmer waters and act as a barrier preventing them from melting sea ice.
Once in the Arctic Ocean basin, the water is swept into a mammoth circular current—driven by strong winds—called the Beaufort Gyre (BG). Mighty Siberian and Canadian rivers also drain into the gyre to create a great reservoir of relatively fresh water. Winds trap this water in a clockwise flow, but periodically, the winds shift and the gyre weakens, allowing large volumes of fresh water to leak out. This is “the flywheel,” said WHOI physical oceanographer Andrey Proshutinksy, and when it turns off, fresh water flows toward the North Atlantic.”
Of course, the gyre is complicated:
MAY 18, 2023
New study helps solve a 30-year-old puzzle: How is climate change affecting El Niño and La Niña?
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-year-old-puzzle-climate-affecting-el.html
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Supposedly modelling El Niños from hundreds of years ago fails to convince 🙁
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.