Sea ice optional? [image credit: BBC]
Why has it taken so long for greenhouse gas obsessives to come up with this, using ‘new climate model simulations’? The Arctic summer sea ice was supposed to be on its last legs at least fifteen years ago. Of course natural variation is ignored or discounted, as usual.
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A 1987 global deal to protect the ozone layer is delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years, new research shows.
The Montreal Protocol – the first treaty to be ratified by every United Nations country – regulates nearly 100 man-made chemicals called ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), says EurekAlert.
While the main aim was to preserve the ozone layer, ODSs are also potent greenhouse gases, so the deal has slowed global warming.
The new study shows the effects of this include delaying the first ice-free Arctic summer (currently projected to happen the middle of this century) by up to 15 years, depending on future emissions.
The researchers – from UC Santa Cruz, Columbia University and the University of Exeter – estimate that each 1,000 tonnes of ODS emissions prevented saves about seven square kilometres of Arctic sea ice.
“While ODSs aren’t as abundant as other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, they can have a real impact on global warming,” said Dr Mark England, Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851 senior research fellow at the University of Exeter.
“ODSs have particularly powerful effects in the Arctic, and they played a major role in driving Arctic climate change in the second half of the 20th Century.
“While stopping these effects was not the primary goal of the Montreal Protocol, it has been a fantastic by-product.”
Dr England said opponents of the protocol predicted a range of negative consequences, most of which did not happen, and instead there are numerous documented instances of unintended climate benefits.
Professor Lorenzo Polvani, from Columbia University, said: “The first ice-free Arctic summer – meaning the Arctic Ocean practically free of sea ice – will be a major milestone in the process of climate change.
“Our findings clearly demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has been a very powerful climate protection treaty, and has done much more than healing the ozone hole over the South Pole.
“Its effects are being felt all over the world, especially in the Arctic.”
ODS decline
The study, which used new climate model simulations, shows that protection of the ozone layer itself played no part in slowing the loss of Arctic sea ice – all the benefits relate to the role of ODSs as greenhouse gases.
ODSs (which include chlorofluorocarbons, also called CFCs) are compounds developed in the last century for industrial use as refrigerants and propellants.
The Montreal Protocol, which has now been signed by all 198 members of United Nations, regulated these compounds to preserve the ozone layer, which protects humans and the environment from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation.
This effort has succeeded, with atmospheric concentrations of ODSs declining since the mid-1990s and signs that the ozone layer has started to heal.
However, research has suggested a slight rise in ODS concentrations from 2010-20, so Dr England said vigilance is still required.
Full article here.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
So these idiots having nothing to do got out the computer games in the hope they could find something to make their names known to all the players.
In 2008 Peter Wadhams declared that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013 – it wasn’t and the so called ‘global warming’ has nothing to do with it. They would be better observing the sun and its effects on the earth and the climate.
“all the benefits relate to the role of ODSs as greenhouse gases. ODSs (which include chlorofluorocarbons, also called CFCs) are compounds developed in the last century for industrial use as refrigerants and propellants.”
CFCs are not greenhouse gases. They have never existed in a greenhouse. Double think going on here where they fail to recognize such in their own statement: DEVELOPED for industrial use. To my knowledge, the impact of CFCs on the atmospheric/plant cycle has never been fully identified, like so many other man-made compounds.
The Disclaimer says everything:
Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.
The patent for Freon 12 had expired and they had to get that product off the market so they could replace it with a patented product that they could make a fortune with.
Now, they keep replacing the replacements as the new patents run out. The ozone hole has always opened and closed, the ozone hole closed long before Freon 12 was off the market and out of use.
All this is based on models and the models keep giving results that they can frighten people with, they tune the models to make them as frightening as they possibly can.
The Arctic opens to rebuild ice sequestered in and near the Polar Region, ice core records prove the most ice accumulation on Greenland, and other cold places, occurs in the warmest times when the Arctic is open. When the accumulated ice is sufficient, the ice is pushed into the turbulent salt water currents and chills the water to form sea ice that stops the evaporation and snowfall until the sequestered ice is depleted, this explains the natural, alternating warm and cold climate periods. The thermostat setting is the temperature sea ice freezes and thaws.
This study is laughable, if it was not for the fact that it’s a prime example of model-generated JUNK climate science
So what, the GCM modelers and others just forget about this did they?
This is truly pathetic. Its a simple thing to model so are those who made the claims about ice-free Arctics just stupid?
“are those who made the claims about ice-free Arctics just stupid?”
Not stupid – just following the money.
Countless $billions are available for science supporting dangerous climate change rhetoric.
Really…
‘Huge’ unexpected ozone hole discovered over tropics
“First, no tropical ozone hole was expected to exist from the mainstream photochemical theory. Second, unlike the Antarctic/Arctic ozone holes that are seasonal and mainly appear in spring, the tropical ozone hole is essentially unchanged across the seasons and is therefore invisible in original observed data.”
As with the Antarctic ozone hole, the normal ozone value is found to be depleted by approximately 80 per cent at the centre of the tropical ozone hole, the research found.
The new research has also highlighted differences in the prevailing theories on how ozone is depleted.
In the past, the presence of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was considered to be the biggest cause of ozone depletion. The 1987 Montreal Protocol, which banned them, has seen a major reduction in their use.
But despite the global ban, the largest, deepest and most persistent ozone holes – over the Antarctic – were still observed in the late 2000s and in 2020-2021.
“This was unexpected from any of the photochemistry-climate models,” Professor Lu said.
A separate theory of ozone depletion, known as cosmic-ray-driven electron reaction (CRE), in which cosmic rays from space reduce ozone in the atmosphere, was first proposed by Professor Lu and his colleagues two decades ago.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/ozone-layer-hole-discovered-earth-b2116260.html
Don’t you just love that good old “settled science”!
First the predictions, then the excuses. Climate models are so versatile 😆
Here are some predictions: how did they stack up?
1922 The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consulate at Bergen, Norway. (The Washington post)
1923 Will the North Pole melt entirely?
1926 Profound climate changes have occurred in the past. There are in almost all parts of the world beaches about 10 ft. above the present ones.
1939 Scientists warn earth entering new cycle of warmer weather.1939 Scientist warns all the glaciers in East Greenland are melting rapidly, like those in Norway 1940 Scientist warns many glaciers in NE Greenland have receded and it would not be exaggerating to say they are nearing a catastrophe 1947 Scientist warns Arctic warming at an ‘unprecedented’ rate. Dr. Hans Ahlmann University of California said that the Arctic had warmed 5.5℃ since 1900, and sea levels around Spitsbergen had risen 1-1.5 inches per year since then. 1950 Scientist warns that a huge glacier (Svartisen, northern Norway) is melting so rapidly that it will have disappeared in 50 years 1958 Scientists say The Changing Face of the Arctic – the polar ice is 40% thinner and 12% less in area than half a century ago. Even in the lifetime of our children the Arctic could be open so ships could sail over the North Pole. NY Times Sunday Oct. 19, 1958
Arctic sea ice around or above the 17-year average so far this season. Looks like the post-1978 decline fizzled out after 2007, wrongfooting the doomsters, but they still cling to their ‘rapid decline’ fantasy.
Source — https://rclutz.com/2023/05/17/arctic-ice-plentiful-mid-may-2023/
The hypothesis don’t seem to square with this BBC article either.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15105747
Ozone loss over the Arctic this year was so severe that for the first time it could be called an “ozone hole” like the Antarctic one, scientists report.
About 20km (13 miles) above the ground, 80% of the ozone was lost, they say.
The cause was an unusually long spell of cold weather at altitude. In cold conditions, the chlorine chemicals that destroy ozone are at their most active.
It is currently impossible to predict if such losses will occur again, the team writes in the journal Nature.
Early data on the scale of Arctic ozone destruction were released in April, but the Nature paper is the first that has fully analysed the data.
“Winter in the Arctic stratosphere is highly variable – some are warm, some are cold,” said Michelle Santee from Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).
“But over the last few decades, the winters that are cold have been getting colder.
Maslowski’s revised attempt at a prediction also bombed out…
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Published 8 April 2011
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13002706
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Now some of the ‘best guesses’ – i.e. yet more model games – are decades away. A kind of Arctic bingo but without a guaranteed winner.
Despite the claim, the ozone treaty hasn’t solved the Antarctic depletion, and we have Arctic depletion besides.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/arctic-ozone-depletion-reached-record-level
https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/research/ozone-uv/moreinfo?view=arctic-ozone-hole
It’s almost as if ‘the science’ were barking up the wrong tree.
However the Montreal Treaty has to be claimed a success because the climate blob decided to use it as an example of how international cooperation (aka dictatorship) would also solve climate change.
Re. Richard Black, ex-BBC (see comment above)…
Richard Black is an Honorary Research Fellow at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London. The majority of his working life was in journalism, as a science and environment correspondent for BBC News. From 2014-2020 he was Director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think-tank. In 2018 he published ‘Denied – the Rise and Fall of Climate Contrarianism,’ the only book to detail the UK’s climate contrarian movement.
https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-black-1219524
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He was clearly impressed at the time with the Arctic doom forecasts that crashed and burned before his 2018 book even came out 🙄
[…] From Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]
Re. this from the article above: “Our findings clearly demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol has been a very powerful climate protection treaty, and has done much more than healing the ozone hole over the South Pole.”
JUNE 1, 2023
Ozone layer recovery delayed, surface UV radiation continues to rise, finds study
— by Chinese Academy of Sciences
“Our analysis shows disturbed ozone levels and enhanced surface UV radiation for more than a decade after 2010,” said lead author Yan Xia of Beijing Normal University. “The slower recovery of stratospheric ozone is largely unexpected.”
https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ozone-layer-recovery-delayed-surface.html