Talkshop readers will remember the post last month looking at PIOMAS ice volume data in relation to two alternate futures. One is the future predicted by IPCC scientists that says we’re heading for an ice-free Arctic in summer 2035 on a fairly linear trend all the way down from when the satellite record begins (well, the section they show us anyway). The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
These two alternatives appear on our plot below, along with the updated PIOMAS volume data. Up until now, both possible futures have been plausible, within two-sigma envelopes (not shown this time), with a few outliers for either scenario. This month’s updated current datapoint lies very close to the 65 year sinusoidal oscillation model’s median line, and just within the two-sigma envelope of the linear model. Click through to see the plot below the break.
Whether you see a sinusoidal or linear trend in the data probably depends on whether you’re an alarmist or sceptic at this point, but as the months go by, it should become clearer as Mama Nature perform the experimentum crucis for us.
Tallbloke's Talkshop 
My patience is exhausted. Warming’s over. The cycles are clear, it’s going to get colder from now on until the next warm period, c.3Ka AD. Just is, probably. As geologists say, the past is the best guide to the future. CO2 at 1W/m^2 is dwarfed by natural feedback models do not even allow for, as they ignore natural change. Add that into the partial data set of models and there’s nothing; no detectable anomaly left to explain.
“All we see are cycles”. “No montomic signal” in the natural record. Which bit of this do people still not understand? Is cyclic analysis beyond the “intelligence of climate scientists”, it if that phrase is not an oxymoron in itself? FFS guys, no real warming since the ’98 El Nino tell you anything? FFS etc.
I screw up on typos every time. Must get cataracts done. sorry. Basic statements clear and unchanged by review.
I’ll fix some of them. 😉
I’ve been trying to get people to see the cyclicity in the Arctic ice data since April 2017…
No error bars in sight. Why all the fuss?
This was written:
The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
: A tale of two paradigms.
For ten thousand years, there have been thousand-year cycles with several hundred warm years followed by several hundred cold years. This is a third, and a more likely paradigm, because this paradigm is supported by ice core records and history.
There is more ice accumulation during hundreds of years of warmer, more open, arctic ocean. Then the more ice is pushed into the warm tropical currents to chill them to form sea ice and prevent or retard evaporation and snowfall for several hundred years while the ice on land flows into the oceans and depletes.
Golly, chaps, why don’t we all look at ocean.demi.dk Daily Mean Temperatures in the Arctic. (80N plus). From 1958 to now you can tap on every year and see how Arctic temperature follows the same track -starts to thaw second week in June, refreeze in mid August having reached say PLUS TWO DEGREES C!!! ;Elsewhere very mjnus every year. I mean a spike in January 2023 from minus 27 to minus 20 wrings no withers. So where is the global warming then? There’s been no Arctic warming since 1958
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.